WI : Paul I of Russia isn't assassinated

[Yorel]

Well lets see.. the Br initially saw the league as in the Fr. interest, its why Parker and Nelson sailed for the Baltic in the first place...to break the league.

after 1st Copenhagen, they did sail for Karlskrona but did not engage the Swedes and thence on to Reval only to find that the Russians were massed at Kronstadt and that a change in Russian policy was in the offing with the ascension of Alexander. Since that hasn't occurred I'm pretty sure there would be an engagement in the Gulf of Finland or off Kronstadt. A sound defeat for the Russians will not go down well but it will take the wind from the sails of the league. If the Russians win or are able to force even the A withdrawal then the the league gains new life,, and the Swedes may even engage the picket of Karlskrona if those few British sentries manage to stay around. Undoubtably the Danes will be brought back in in short order a well. they still have the bulk of their Fleet intact.

It will still be risky for the British... Denmark became an ally of Napoleon after its fleet was damaged.

If they defeat the Russian and Swedish fleets, they'll still break the league but the Swedes and Russians could take the same path as the Danes.

If the Brits are defeated, which isn't impossible even though they have the strongest fleet of the world at the time, they will not only not break the league but make them allies of Napoleon.

One way or the other, it's not really good in my eyes.

In re reading the events leading to the 3rd coalition... French invasion of Haiti, British failure to withdraw from Malta etc. It seems that Amiens will probably still fail, though i have to ask, are the British likely to declare war on France and their Spanish allies ( forgot about San Ildefonso earlier) If they face concerted hostility and opposition from the league...has the British Baltic adventure been enough to push the league into an outright French alliance. I suppose it really depends on how things go off Kronstadt. A combined League, French and Spanish Naval force is going to be more than enough to give even the RN bed spins. What did I read...127 ships of the line in the combined league navies of Den-Norway/Sweden and Russia.

I agree on the fact that it all depends on what happens off Kronstadt.

But if the Russian, Swedes and Danes become allied to Napoleon, it will be a serious trouble for the British : Nappy will have enough ships under his control to at least keep the Royal Navy occupied in the Channel and land his troops on the British coast. And if Nappy lands, the Brits are screwed.

Of course, the British might still try to push Austria to attack and force Napoleon to deal with them first, but I doubt the Austrians will be willing to attack alone : they had Russian help in OTL. Here, they have no one.

That' what the Tsar actually did OTL (court mourning at St. petersburgh, break of relations with france)

Well, I didn't knew that. Thanks for telling me.

However, by the time of Enghien's death in OTL, Alexander was already Tsar as Paul had been assassinated.
Of course, Father and Son could have the same reaction, but would Paul do exactly the same than Alexander did OTL? I'm not sure.

 

[mailinutile2]

However, by the time of Enghien's death in OTL, Alexander was already Tsar as Paul had been assassinated.
Of course, Father and Son could have the same reaction, but would Paul do exactly the same than Alexander did OTL? I'm not sure.

Paul was actually even more idealistic and honor-bound than his son.
OTL he retreated by the Coalition because Englismen got Malta and he had the honorific title of being an an Hospitalier knight.
Thus I expect Enghien murder to outrage him.
Quoting Fouche disagreeing with napoleon:
It is worse than a crime: it is an error.

A quick note on Denmark: Copenhagen will back anyone standing against the Russo-swedish block, even if is has goat feet and and a red-hot fork.
Russia wants Finland (which was under Swedish suzeranity), thus Sweden want to be compensed with Norway.
Ergo, Denmark (which is actually holding Norway) will be dead against them.
the foe of my foe ...

 

[Yorel]

Paul was actually even more idealistic and honor-bound than his son.
OTL he retreated by the Coalition because Englismen got Malta and he had the honorific title of being an an Hospitalier knight.
Thus I expect Enghien murder to outrage him.
Quoting Fouche disagreeing with napoleon:
It is worse than a crime: it is an error.

I see your point. Paul will probably be far more outraged than his son by Enghein's death unless it doesn't happen for whatever reason...

That poses a new question : If Paul denounces the treaty with France and cut diplomatic ties with Napoleon, will he go back to his alliance with Britain? He still has a grudge with the Brits because of Malta.

 

[mailinutile2]

if he's engaged with sweden, he could make his own third pole.
In that case Russia strategic aim revert to the baltic (Finland and maybe a slice of Poland).
harsh times for prussiain the near future.
I do not completely rule out that he go on with his indian dream,but he has to be gone completely librarian to attempt it

 

[Yorel]

No more thoughts?

 

[seraphim74]

I wonder if d'Enghien would have been killed at all, if Paul and Napoleon had been allies. Napoleon might have reconsidered it: it is one thing to piss off foreign powers who aren't exactly fond of you anyway, and another - to piss off a valuable ally you count on against Britain.

 

[Yorel]

I wonder if d'Enghien would have been killed at all, if Paul and Napoleon had been allies. Napoleon might have reconsidered it: it is one thing to piss off foreign powers who aren't exactly fond of you anyway, and another - to piss off a valuable ally you count on against Britain.

I don't really know. The excecution of Enghien seems to have been suggested to Napoleon to make an example and show the Royalists how he would deal with them. It seems only to be an internal matter in France rather than an international matter. Furthermore, the trial of Enghien was swift and happened the same day he was arrested.

Now, Talleyrand (who suggested the plan) might consider the consequences of Enghien's murder in all Europe rather than just France and not suggest the idea to Napoleon because he knows Paul's chivalrous attitude won't tolerate the Duke's murder.

 

[mailinutile2]

I don't really know. The excecution of Enghien seems to have been suggested to Napoleon to make an example and show the Royalists how he would deal with them. It seems only to be an internal matter in France rather than an international matter. Furthermore, the trial of Enghien was swift and happened the same day he was arrested.

Now, Talleyrand (who suggested the plan) might consider the consequences of Enghien's murder in all Europe rather than just France and not suggest the idea to Napoleon because he knows Paul's chivalrous attitude won't tolerate the Duke's murder.

Let's suppose Enghien is not killed and keep on living the other side of the rhine, being a focus for monarchic sympaties.
Would Napoleon be willing to take the risk of a prolonged war campaign many, many miles away from Paris, while a potential oppositor was there?
Or would he prefer to stay in the heart of france just out of political paranoia?
how would that influence the developements?
less wars, or wars delegated to subordinates?
(could he trust them to win battles?
could he trust them not to turn coat?)

 

[Yorel]

Let's suppose Enghien is not killed and keep on living the other side of the rhine, being a focus for monarchic sympaties.
Would Napoleon be willing to take the risk of a prolonged war campaign many, many miles away from Paris, while a potential oppositor was there?
Or would he prefer to stay in the heart of france just out of political paranoia?
how would that influence the developements?
less wars, or wars delegated to subordinates?
(could he trust them to win battles?
could he trust them not to turn coat?)

A monarchist coup is not impossible while Napoleon is away but it will be hard for it to succeed. Napoleon was very popular in France as he had ended the revolution and stabilized the situation. He was also very popular for his military victories against the Austrians : he had won against them battles such as Rivoli (1st Italian Campaign in 1796) or Marengo (2nd Italian Campaign in 1800).

Besides, we're talking about the early Napoleon : he's very sure of himself and no where near paranoid. If there is war, he'll still probably lead any military campaigns.

 

[mailinutile2]

A monarchist coup is not impossible while Napoleon is away but it will be hard for it to succeed. Napoleon was very popular in France as he had ended the revolution and stabilized the situation. He was also very popular for his military victories against the Austrians : he had won against them battles such as Rivoli (1st Italian Campaign in 1796) or Marengo (2nd Italian Campaign in 1800).

Besides, we're talking about the early Napoleon : he's very sure of himself and no where near paranoid. If there is war, he'll still probably lead any military campaigns.

He also has very serious concurrents
General Morot, for example.
We are not talking of the Emperour yet, but jut of a newly installed First Consul.
His hold on both the government and the army is quite shaky.
Take Marengo, for example: he was forced to wage war there because the parliament forbid him to have the command of the (more prestigious) army on the german front, in order to limit his power.
And he was forced to accept the decision.
The same with Morot: even when he managed to put him on trial, he was not able to have him executed, and the soldiers in the tribunal made the presentat-arm to him (Morot) when he entered in the room