WI: Partition of Moldova in 1992

[Vladyslav]

PoD: national-democratic government came to power in Ukraine in 1990. It was held economic and political reforms, which allowed Ukraine is relatively easy to outlive collapse of the USSR. Ukraine entered into an alliance with Yeltsin with the aim of dismantling the USSR. Ukraine in the decay of the Soviet Union established control over large part of Black Sea Fleet and the Soviet armies in Moldova. The last fact led to Ukrainian intervention in the conflict in Transnistria. Total independence from Russia was the main goal of Ukrainian policy. Ukraine consider that the integration of the Central-Eastern Europe is the main opportunity for this. Ukraine offered Romania the following agreement:
1) Ukraine and Romania divided Moldova among themselves - Ukraine receives Transnistria, Gagauz and Bulgarian districts of Southern Bessarabia and Romania gets the rest;
2) Ukraine and Romania provide national-cultural autonomy of the Romanian and Ukrainian minorities in their countries;
3) Ukraine and Romania decide the disputed border issues, including in the Danube Delta and the Black Sea shelf;
4) Ukraine and Romania signed a military-political and economic union and conduct harmonization of economic legislation (that de facto means pursuing reforms in Romania in the Ukrainian model*).

* - ITTL Ukrainian reforms are similar to Polish with more emphasis on industrial modernization and the creation of large industrial companies



I am interested your opinion on the next questions:
1) Will Romania sign this agreement?
2) What is the US and the EU reaction to this agreement?
3) How the annexation of Moldova will strengthen political instability in Romania and whether it will lead to the federalization of Romania?
4) What sectors of the economy most likely of the Ukrainian-Romanian economic cooperation?

 

[Zagan]

1. Probably...
2. Mainly positive, I guess.
3. It won't. On the contrary, we (the Romanians) will not get any chance of overthrowing the communists turned into social-democrats (Ion Iliescu & co). Federalization is anathema in Romania.
4. I do not know.

It looks like a good plan.

 

[Kibbutznik]

Are we considering the opinion of the Moldavians on the subject of this treaty?

 

[Gog (♀)]

Are we considering the opinion of the Moldavians on the subject of this treaty?

For one, Transitria is pissed...

 

[Remitonov]

Are we considering the opinion of the Moldavians on the subject of this treaty?

Apparently not. We can safely say a good portion of Moldovans consider themselves separate from Romanians (which I personally consider bull, though others are free to disagree), none of whom would like to see their country carved apart Poland-style. Romanian-leaning Moldovans might take offence to seeing parts of Greater Romania handed over to Ukraine, but by cutting the anti-Romanian Moldovans off from support from the Transnistrians, Gagauz and others, they'd actually be in a far greater position than in an independent Moldova.

Of course, to have Moldova split Poland-style... you have to ask if anyone in the international community would allow this... >_>

 

[Snaut]

* - ITTL Ukrainian reforms are similar to Polish with more emphasis on industrial modernization and the creation of large industrial companies

Putting an emphasis on preserving and modernizing industry instead of allowing it to be wiped out before it got a chance to adapt to the free market would be an extremely radical deviation from the whole model of the reforms in Poland. And a very good one. Ukraine and Romania together have a population similar to Germany's, making them significantly more developed then in OTL would cause important changes.

 

[Zagan]

Are we considering the opinion of the Moldavians on the subject of this treaty?

Of course, to have Moldova split Poland-style... you have to ask if anyone in the international community would allow this... >_>

Please consider that the OP asked about a 1992 partition of Moldova.

On 1 January 1992:
- The Soviet Union was extinct for one week.
- Moldova was not yet member of the UN.
- Very few countries have recognized the independence of Moldova yet.

So, it would not have been a Poland-style partition, but a rearangement of internal Soviet borders immediately post break-up.

And oh, the Bessarabians (Romanians, some of which called themselves Moldavians, and a few others like Ukrainians, Russians, etc) would have been asked about it afterwards, in a (rigged) referendum.

Remember, it's 1992, not 2016.