WI: Partition of Afghanistan in 2010

Let's say a different US leadership decides to partition Afghanistan after 2001. My idea is that the war is worse than IOTL and by 2010 the US decides that partitioning is the best course of action.

A partition of Afghanistan means that it is pretty much a given that the northern areas of Afghanistan which is comprised of Turkmens, Tajiks and Uzbeks becomes independent. Its name might be Khorasan.

I think that maybe an independent Balochistan might be carved out of southern Afghanistan yet I don't think Pakistan will be fond of the idea. The early 2010s were not a good time for US-Pakistan relations what with the skirmishes, Operation Neptune Spear and Raymond Davis so a more hawkish leadership might create an independent Balochistan in Afghanistan as a warning to Pakistan.

Hazarajat has the chance of becoming an Iranian client state, so there is a good chance that it might not be independent. Maybe it becomes a part of Khorasan, or it remains a part of Afghanistan. Then again, an independent Hazarajat could mean that Shias in Afghanistan are safer.

What do you guys think? How will it impact Afghanistan and the war there?
 
Last edited:
Really can't do this. For some areas to be connected to the outside world on land need to go through other areas. Also, this would end up splitting ethnic groups so that while group "A" might be a majority in one place in the neighboring entity they would be a minority, most likely persecuted. This could only work with significant population shifts, which would be ugly, and the displaced populations would always be irredentist looking to take back their "stolen" land. Think the worst excesses of Yugoslavia compounded by way more weapons lying around. On top of that Pakistan involved for their Pashtun brothers, Iran supporting Shi'a elements who are Persian speakers, and China and the 'stans (who have ethnic brothers in Afghanistan) playing their own game. Hobbes on steroids.
 
Apparently it was discussed more than I realized:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/the-inevitable-partition-of-afghanistan/article12690458/

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/ehsan-azari/partition-of-afghanistan-_b_691534.html

https://www.thenational.ae/opinion/...f-afghanistan-is-best-of-bad-options-1.295679

I'm not sure a Khorasan as you describe would or could resist fragmenting into its ethnic components, and you might see the Uzbeks, Tajiks and Turkmen uniting with their kin in the former USSR. Pakistan may absorb the Pushtun, but I think it would be bringing a problem on itself that might eventually result in losing all the Pushtun to an independent state.

I don't think there are enough Baluchi in Afghanistan for a viable state, but I admit that I'd like to see an independent Nuristan. What would make it even more fun is if the Nuristani, Muslim since only 1895 or so, were to choose to return to paganism. Talk about uproar and chest-pounding ...
 
Apparently it was discussed more than I realized:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/the-inevitable-partition-of-afghanistan/article12690458/

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/ehsan-azari/partition-of-afghanistan-_b_691534.html

https://www.thenational.ae/opinion/...f-afghanistan-is-best-of-bad-options-1.295679

I'm not sure a Khorasan as you describe would or could resist fragmenting into its ethnic components, and you might see the Uzbeks, Tajiks and Turkmen uniting with their kin in the former USSR. Pakistan may absorb the Pushtun, but I think it would be bringing a problem on itself that might eventually result in losing all the Pushtun to an independent state.

I don't think there are enough Baluchi in Afghanistan for a viable state, but I admit that I'd like to see an independent Nuristan. What would make it even more fun is if the Nuristani, Muslim since only 1895 or so, were to choose to return to paganism. Talk about uproar and chest-pounding ...
Nuristani are very devout now, I think. A revival does not seem realistic.
 
Last edited:
Top