WI Pandjeh War

Tsao

Banned
What if the Panjdeh_Incident escalated into a war between GB and Russia? IIRC, they were quite near declaring war IOTL, so I'm wondering about the impacts of such a war.
 
An Anglo-Russian War in 1885? Plausible. The British would probably blockade the Baltic sea ports of the Russians. From there on, I really can't say how the war would be fought in a terrestrial fashion. Afghanistan seems the obvious choice. And maybe, China, Persia and India.
 
What if the Panjdeh_Incident escalated into a war between GB and Russia? IIRC, they were quite near declaring war IOTL, so I'm wondering about the impacts of such a war.

Do you have JSTOR access? If so, then the following neatly sums up the British (and Russian, to a lesser extent) strategy during such a conflict. I used it quite extensively in working how how the Afghan theatre would go in "Fight and Be Right".

"Russians at the Gates of India"? Planning the Defence of India, 1885-1900
R. A. Johnson
The Journal of Military History
Vol. 67, No. 3 (Jul., 2003), pp. 697-743

To sum things up briefly, the Russians didn't have the logistical ability to do a proper invasion of India off the bat, so they would have occupied Afghanistan by stages, consolidating as they went. Although Kuropatkin hadn't drawn up his plans to do so until 1886 IOTL, ITTL I suspect that STAVKA would come to the same conclusions independently. Sadly for the Russians, I would expect political pressure to push this advance along far faster than is militarily feasible. Things also wouldn't be helped by Abdur Rahman, who would support whomever he thought would win, and in this case that'd probably be the British. The Russians would probably hope that they'd be able to get support from the locals, particualrly the Ghilzai, but given the way they rebuffed Russian assistance IOTL they're likely to be disappointed.

For their part, the British would advance to the 'Scientific frontier' and hold the passes over the Hindu Kush. General Roberts knew his stuff, and was an expert in the realities of Afghan warfare, particularly the importance of supply; unlike the Russians, he had planned extensively for operations in the region too.

The result? A large Russian army proudly marches into Afghanistan, leading to an almighty cock-up and lots of Russian conscripts freezing to death in the Pamirs. Six to nine months later, a few starving, terrified Russians surrender to the British guarding the passes. I suspect that'll be it- if not, Roberts, astonishingly enough, actually had a plan to take Herat and then invade Russian Turkestan. At first glance it's a bit of a crazy strategy, but if anyone could have made it work, it was Roberts...
 

Tsao

Banned
To sum things up briefly, the Russians didn't have the logistical ability to do a proper invasion of India off the bat, so they would have occupied Afghanistan by stages, consolidating as they went. Although Kuropatkin hadn't drawn up his plans to do so until 1886 IOTL, ITTL I suspect that STAVKA would come to the same conclusions independently. Sadly for the Russians, I would expect political pressure to push this advance along far faster than is militarily feasible. Things also wouldn't be helped by Abdur Rahman, who would support whomever he thought would win, and in this case that'd probably be the British. The Russians would probably hope that they'd be able to get support from the locals, particualrly the Ghilzai, but given the way they rebuffed Russian assistance IOTL they're likely to be disappointed.

For their part, the British would advance to the 'Scientific frontier' and hold the passes over the Hindu Kush. General Roberts knew his stuff, and was an expert in the realities of Afghan warfare, particularly the importance of supply; unlike the Russians, he had planned extensively for operations in the region too.

The result? A large Russian army proudly marches into Afghanistan, leading to an almighty cock-up and lots of Russian conscripts freezing to death in the Pamirs. Six to nine months later, a few starving, terrified Russians surrender to the British guarding the passes. I suspect that'll be it- if not, Roberts, astonishingly enough, actually had a plan to take Herat and then invade Russian Turkestan. At first glance it's a bit of a crazy strategy, but if anyone could have made it work, it was Roberts...
What would be the long term effects of a russian defeat?
 
I think a much more realistic way for an Anglo-Russian conflict to occur is Persia in the early 1900s. Iran, while also possessing tough terrain, is a lot easier to traverse and fight over than Afghanistan. It also provides ready access to the plains around the Indus instead of the mountains of the north.
 

Tsao

Banned
I think a much more realistic way for an Anglo-Russian conflict to occur is Persia in the early 1900s. Iran, while also possessing tough terrain, is a lot easier to traverse and fight over than Afghanistan. It also provides ready access to the plains around the Indus instead of the mountains of the north.

I thought about that as well, but I don't know of any causes for war over Persia.
 
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