WI: Palin runs in 2012

Which state flips? West Virginia?

No Romney won West Virgina with 62 percent of the vote. I would have Obama win the OTL states plus Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Indiana, Missippi, Missouri, Texas, the 2nd district of Nebraska, Montana, Arizona and Alaska.
 
Palin's problem is that the longer she's in the limelight, the worse her ratings take a hit. That would happen at a far larger level if she won the Republican nomination and ran for president. Right now, she's a two-bit talking head on a conservative news network (or was), where people just roll their eyes at some of things she's said. However, if she's the presidential nominee for her party, every word would be scrutinized and I could see a situation where she says something so outrageous that she ultimately is done in as a candidate and loses in a landslide. Palin doesn't seem to be the type of candidate who could run a very disciplined campaign.

Which makes the idea of her ever winning the Republican nomination hard to accept. Republicans felt '12 was a winnable election and it's really the only reason Romney won the nomination. It isn't like Republicans fell in love with him - they just conceded he was their best shot. If Palin is going to run, and win the nomination, you're going to have to have a situation where Obama isn't nearly as vulnerable (or perceived) - so, how do you do that? Without doing that, Romney will still run, Palin will still be her messy self and certainly she's going to say or do something that sinks her chances. Hell, even Santorum seemed to be more disciplined than Palin ... and he still struggled with diarrhea of the mouth.
 
I would argue the entire reason Palin faded from the limelight was her refusal to run, personally. She was a media darling as a front runner for the nomination.

Just have her show more cleavage and she can probably win a couple states back :p
 
gotta agree with with SLCer. Palin is an absolute disaster as a speaker when there's anything significant to talk about. Palin doesn't have the chops to be up front and center. She's made a post VP run career out of pretending to be relevant.

In regards to the media, Dan Quayle is the only one I can think of who is more widely roasted.

Palin the candidate is a non starter, IMO. At best she's quickly an also-ran.
 
gotta agree with with SLCer. Palin is an absolute disaster as a speaker when there's anything significant to talk about. Palin doesn't have the chops to be up front and center. She's made a post VP run career out of pretending to be relevant.

In regards to the media, Dan Quayle is the only one I can think of who is more widely roasted.

Palin the candidate is a non starter, IMO. At best she's quickly an also-ran.

I think Dan Quayle would be a better candidate than Sarah Palin, unless it's a beauty competition.
 

DTanza

Banned
I think Dan Quayle would be a better candidate than Sarah Palin, unless it's a beauty competition.

quayle-portrait.jpg


How YOU doin'?
 
I still say there was a window there when Not-Romney kept doing amazing in the polls in the weeks before Iowa. Not-Romney changing practically week-by-week to anyone left in the race. If Palin had swooped in then, had a little luck, and ran an initially canned campaign (that is to say, every appearance produced or pre-taped) she might've had a shot at the nomination. Does well in Iowa, loses New Hampshire, lets the governor do the work for her in South Carolina and then starts acting like the presumptive nominee above the fray and above the need to press the flesh.

Of course eventually they have to let her off the leash and things go rapidly downhill for her, as has been discussed.
 
I still say there was a window there when Not-Romney kept doing amazing in the polls in the weeks before Iowa. Not-Romney changing practically week-by-week to anyone left in the race. If Palin had swooped in then, had a little luck, and ran an initially canned campaign (that is to say, every appearance produced or pre-taped) she might've had a shot at the nomination. Does well in Iowa, loses New Hampshire, lets the governor do the work for her in South Carolina and then starts acting like the presumptive nominee above the fray and above the need to press the flesh.

Of course eventually they have to let her off the leash and things go rapidly downhill for her, as has been discussed.

I agree. Palin only had the momentum for a tightly controlled campaign in the primary session. Problem is, establishment, business-wing that Romney represents will be coming guns blazing against her first. She is the big early target. With Palin in it, she blazes early and does young. We may see even later Gingrich and Santorum campaigns lasting. They would survive the early trials by fire, have dedicated enough bases, especially after the Citizens United ruling.

So you have a scenario where Romney had spent his primary war chest knocking Palin out and now you still have Gingrich, Santorum and Pail left and its April...
 
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Who would she choose as a running mate? Someone moderate to gain appeal, or someone also conservative but with regional or experience differences?
 
The problem is still the Romney Unit, which was seen as the best bet for 2012. Hmmm. Perhaps a TL that starts:

***FLASH***
***AP wire***
Governor Mitt Romney hospitalised after falling over at campaign event.
“He was asked to clarify his position on the Tea Party when his eyes glazed over and smoke started pouring from his ears,” eyewitness Chuck McGop said. “Then he started babbling something about an error code and overlapping parameters. Luckily there were some guys in white coats in a big van nearby, who started poking at his chest and asking where the override was.”
A spokesperson for the Romney campaign denied reports that the Governor’s motherboard had blown, but said that the Governor might have to pull out of the campaign just days before the Iowa Caucuses due to health reasons.
***FLASH***
 
So you have a scenario where Romneu had spent his primary war chest knocking Palin out and now you still have Gingrich, Santorum and Pail left and its April...

With Palin in the race, Gingrich and Santorum would have got squeezed out early. I actually imagine Palin running is better for Republicans. It would fast develop into a Romney versus Palin battle, and the Romney campaign frames him as the sane candidate, not worrying so much about having to flank people from the right. Romney is thus better positioned for the general.

He'd still lose though.
 
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