WI: Pakistan's Jammu and Kashmir Insurgency

Now, let's assume that Pakistan is able to conquer Indian Jammu and Kashmir - not just the Kashmir region, but all of the disputed area, including where Hindus make up a majority. Now, from anecdotal experience, I can tell you that the Hindu-majority population of the Jammu Division is quite pro-India. I doubt that any sort of ethnic cleansing of Hindus will occur - Pakistan would never be willing to kick out one million people, who make up a majority in the south of Jammu and Kashmir, and you'd need a pretty damn horrifying Pakistani government to do that.

Now, could this pro-Indian Hindu-majority portion of Jammu and Kashmir be as resentful of Pakistani rule as the Kashmir Valley is of Indian rule, and could this turn into a large insurgency, with pro-Indian militias emerging?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Now, could this pro-Indian Hindu-majority portion of Jammu and Kashmir be as resentful of Pakistani rule as the Kashmir Valley is of Indian rule, and could this turn into a large insurgency, with pro-Indian militias emerging?
Possibly--especially if India funds this rebellion.
 
I actually thought about this earlier today.

I guess whether or not an insurgency occurs is based on Pakistan's treatment of Hindus. If someone like Zia takes power then an insurgency is very likely. Of course this is not to say that if Pakistan is tolerant of Hindus everything would be fine. I can imagine some disturbances in Jammu and Kashmir. Maybe something like the Balochistani Liberation Army can spring up there?

Possibly--especially if India funds this rebellion.

Really depends on who the prime minister is. An Indian PM who is seeking reconciliation may not want to fund an insurgency, while an Indian PM who is a nationalist is very likely to.
 

longsword14

Banned
Pakistan is not going to get the bomb quickly (definitely not before India, who wanted the bomb against China), so a conventional war is going to happen.
Expect any PM in New Delhi to be ready for war, Pakistan is kicked out of Jammu by the Indians and it is formally annexed in any peace treaty.
Imagine Shimla agreement with India not giving the land back.
 
The only way Pakistan could get the whole Jammu-Kashmir at the time of partition was through negotiation. It was possible that King Hari Singh would have opted for joining Pakistan because of his antipathy towards Nehru. If Jinnah had played his cards more smartly he might have succeeded in getting the trust of Hari Singh who hated the Congress and particularly Nehru. But his headache was Sheikh Abdullah, the popular leader of Kashmir and a friend of Jawaharlal Nehru, who later became the Chief Minister of Jammu-Kashmir. Sheikh Abdullah was the sworn enemy of Muhammad Ali Jinnah and his Muslim League. It was Sheikh Abdullah who made the people of Jammu-Kashmir to support the accession of the state to India. It
is said that the opinion of Sardar Patel was to allow Kashmir to join Pakistan, if people were willing. But Nehru, who was a Kashmiri Brahmin by his ancestry had a soft corner for the land of his forefathers and wanted it to be a part of India at any cost. Jinnah also committed a great blunder by letting the religiously motivated tribals from the Northwest to invade the Kashmir kingdom to loot and plunder. Hari Singh was forced to seek the help of India and Nehru wanted his signature in the Instrument of Accession, before sending the Indian troops for the defense of the state. Then it was the stupidity on the part of Nehru to approach U.N. before throwing out all the Pakistani forces from the Kashmiri soil.
 
Now, let's assume that Pakistan is able to conquer Indian Jammu and Kashmir - not just the Kashmir region, but all of the disputed area, including where Hindus make up a majority. Now, from anecdotal experience, I can tell you that the Hindu-majority population of the Jammu Division is quite pro-India. I doubt that any sort of ethnic cleansing of Hindus will occur - Pakistan would never be willing to kick out one million people, who make up a majority in the south of Jammu and Kashmir, and you'd need a pretty damn horrifying Pakistani government to do that.

Now, could this pro-Indian Hindu-majority portion of Jammu and Kashmir be as resentful of Pakistani rule as the Kashmir Valley is of Indian rule, and could this turn into a large insurgency, with pro-Indian militias emerging?
Are you sure? Pakistan conducted ethnic cleansing of Bengalis in Operation Searchlight (3 MILLION people died and 15-20 million displaced in a country of 70 million). The Insurgency would be fatal, most of Kashmir valley supports India and supported joining it in 1947, looting and rampaging army from Pakistan didn't help. And that's about Kashmir valley, Jammu, Ladakh and Srinagar are absolutely Indo-Friendly. There is a current Insurgency in POK and India doesn't support them OTL, ATL Kashmir would be a mess
 
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