WI Padania tries to secede from Italy in the 90s

First of all, I don't condone separatism (especially violent) and abhor xenophobia. This is just a thought exercise.

Since the 80s in Northern Italy an independentist party developed and reached substantial popular support by using a fierce rethoric against "robber Rome" and immigrants from the south of Italy before, and now from eastern Europe and Africa. This party is the Northern League, created and led by Umberto Bossi.
One of the central points of the platform of the Northern League is independence, or at least significant autonomy for "Padania", which is to say the Northern part of Italy, more or less the Alps and Po valley up to the Northern edge of the Apennines. (But their territorial rivendications have always been less than clear).

The early nineties were a difficult time for Italy, with corruption scandals destroying almost all the historical governing parties (Christian Democracy, Republican, Liberal, Social-Democratic and Socialist), the Mafia basically declaring war to the state by killing high ranking judges and prosecutors wnd organising terror bombings as north as Florence and a difficult economical situation, with the risk, at least perceived, of not entering in the ECU/Euro system.

Those were also the times of the most virulent separatist rethoric by the Northern League, so do you think it possible that they would go for real independence of the Northern, and richer, regions of Italy? Could the movement turn violent, maybe causing a civil war? Don't forget that the Jugoslavian mess is just behind the corner.

A shooting war is probably stretching things, but I wouldn't discount it totally as ASB, as secession is actually on the statute of the Lega Nord, and Italy would never accept it.
Edit: today they have largely abandoned separatism, in favour of Euroscepticism and rethorics similar to that of Marine Le Pen in France, but I am referring to the Northern League of the early nineties, not the Northern League of today, after years in the government along with Berlusconi etc.
 
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Major problem of Padanian separatism is that it hadn't support of Northern Italians. It is mostly just pet project of some right wing politicians. You probably need early POD that common people too support that.
 
Seriously? Ok at the time the Lega seemed really believing in their secessionist tirade but fact demonstrated that they just want a piece of the pie and the greatest part of their vote come from people who want to protest and other that can be satisfied with a some passage of power from the center to the periphery.

If for some historical accident a referendum is done and the North become independent, people in the Lega will start to fight among themself even before the result is know.
Not counting the fact that Bossi and co. hold the collective I.Q. of a rock.
It will end in a couple of months in a farcical way as the 'supposed' victorious referendum over the secession of Veneto of a couple of years ago.
 
Seriously? Ok at the time the Lega seemed really believing in their secessionist tirade but fact demonstrated that they just want a piece of the pie and the greatest part of their vote come from people who want to protest and other that can be satisfied with a some passage of power from the center to the periphery.

If for some historical accident a referendum is done and the North become independent, people in the Lega will start to fight among themself even before the result is know.
Not counting the fact that Bossi and co. hold the collective I.Q. of a rock.
It will end in a couple of months in a farcical way as the 'supposed' victorious referendum over the secession of Veneto of a couple of years ago.

Well they are Italian like us after all, why should they rule this hypothetical independent Padania in a less farcical way than Italy is ruled?:p

Seriously, I know that rebus sic stantibus there was no serious chance for my scenario to happen, but I am asking if there could be a POD that might make it possible.
Maybe it could be a minimal solution, like the Province of Varese declaring independence or something like that.
 
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Well they are Italian like us after all, why should they rule this hypothetical independent Padania in a less farcical way than Italy is ruled?:p

Seriously, I know that rebus sic stantibus there was no serious chance for my scenario to happen, but I am asking if there could be a POD that might make it possible.
Maybe it could be a minimal solution, like the Province of Varese declaring independence or something like that.

Even if "Padania" somehow managed to become independent, it would've balkanized soon afterwards, with some of its constituent regions going back to Italy, and some of them seceding and/or joining neighbouring states. If Italy is an artificial construct, Padania is even more of an artificial construct, concocted only to bring the north's autonomist parties together.

Milan shall rise again :D

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