WI: Pacific war starts in Vietnam?

Darksoul

Banned
What would have happened if the Japanese invasion of French Indonesia in 1940 grew into a larger war between Japan and the Western powers? For example, if the colonial leaders of Vietnam went Free French in exchange for protection from Britain? Another scenario would be the French fleet and colonies continuing the war from overseas from the beginning. If there was a late 1940 war between Britain (with or without Free French forces) and Japan, how would it go? The situation in the Mediterranean dictates how much the Allies can send to fight in the Pacific, but the Kido Butai probably isn't as dangerous in 1940 as it was in 1941. When does the U.S.A. get involved? How does this affect the Allies performance in other theaters?
 
This sounds very intriguing...

I don't think the Pacific would be immensely affected for the most part though, Vietnam's history would be hugely affected but the Pacific War as a whole wouldn't. France is going to focus way more on reclaiming the actual country of France and Britain will be wanting the Germans out as well.

Might give the Japanese a tussle over French Indochina though.
 

Cook

Banned
If Indochina had been Free French the Japanese would not have moved against it until they were prepared to act against the British Empire at the same time because they would know that challenging one would lead immediately to war with the other. The situation would be the same as the Dutch East Indies; Japan wanted them, the Dutch forces couldn’t defend them but the Japanese couldn’t seize them without war against Britain.

Japan occupied northern Indochina to halt the Nationalist Chinese from receiving aid from the outside world via the Sino-Vietnamese railway. Without that supply route cut off the war in China in late 1940, early 1941 would be a little more difficult for Japan. Alternatively the Japanese may have tried to use diplomatic pressure on the Free French to make them cut off aid to the Chinese. The French and British may have been willing to accommodate the Japanese to some extent because of their very serious limitations in the Pacific and their not wishing to have to fight two wars at once.

Japan’s occupation of port facilities and air bases in southern Indochina resulted in the American oil embargo, which as far as the Japanese were concerned made seizing the Southern Resource Sphere an absolute necessity and war with Britain and America inevitable. Without Japanese forces in Saigon the American embargo may have been delayed or not as restrictive; delaying the start of the Pacific War and America’s entry into the wider World War. The ripples would be quite literally immense.

P.S. Darksoul, there is no need to bump a thread so quickly, we all operate in different time zones so allow 24 hours at least for responses before bumping.
:)
 

Darksoul

Banned
What if Churchill and the rest of the British leadership consider Vietnam strategically useful enough to intervene in? As OTL showed, Vietnam had a lot of bases that acted as springboards for many of the Japanese invasions of 41/42.

Interestingly, the Battle of Dakar and the Japanese invasion of Vietnam occured at the exact same time. Have the British and De Gaulle decide to try and convince Indochina to come over to the Free French instead of French West Africa, and you could end up with a Norway-esque scenario where both sides find themselves invading a neutral country at the same time.
 

Cook

Banned
What if Churchill and the rest of the British leadership consider Vietnam strategically useful enough to intervene in?

The British did see Indochina as strategically important, but unless the Governor of Indochina had decided to throw in his lot with de Gaulle there wasn’t much the British could have done about it; they didn’t have the forces to defend their possessions in the Pacific let alone take over France’s.

And consider the timing; in September 1940 the British were maintained that they were aiding the Free French in a French Civil War, not taking over the French Empire. So Free French forces would be required for a landing in Indochina. It was only after the complete failure of Dakar and the further failure of Free French forces in their token involvement in the British forces invasion of the Levant that Free French involvement was dropped from missions against French colonies.
 

Darksoul

Banned
The British did see Indochina as strategically important, but unless the Governor of Indochina had decided to throw in his lot with de Gaulle there wasn’t much the British could have done about it; they didn’t have the forces to defend their possessions in the Pacific let alone take over France’s.

And consider the timing; in September 1940 the British were maintained that they were aiding the Free French in a French Civil War, not taking over the French Empire. So Free French forces would be required for a landing in Indochina. It was only after the complete failure of Dakar and the further failure of Free French forces in their token involvement in the British forces invasion of the Levant that Free French involvement was dropped from missions against French colonies.

Of course. I'm proposing that basically whatever the British and the Free French were trying in Dakar, they try the exact same thing, at the same time, with the same forces, but in Vietnam instead. Except if the dates from OTL translate to this timeline exactly, Japan invades Vietnam the day before De Gaulle tries landing there. I think the Vichy Frence colonial regime would be more open to the idea of joining the Free French they find themselves simultaniously being invaded by the Japanese. All that really has to happen for this timeline to be plausible is for Churchill and co. decide that Indochina is more strategically important than French West Africa.
 

Cook

Banned
Consider the reasons for the campaigns against the various Vichy colonies.

Dakar was undertaken because of reports that the Vichy government had offered the Germans its’ use as a U-boat base, directly threatening the convoy routes from the South Atlantic. The naval forces involved were diverted from their duties in the North Atlantic for what had been expected to be a few days diversion from the usual operations and was essentially a continuation of the war against Germany.

Syria was invaded because German aircraft had landed and refuelled there on their way to Iraq. It was undertaken with whatever could be scraped together in Palestine and with forces just back from Crete.

Madagascar was invaded because messages between Berlin and Tokyo had been decoded with the Germans offering the ports of Madagascar for use by Japanese submarines. The forces used were on their way to India, Ceylon and Burma and were diverted for another ‘temporary’ operation. Just how close Japan was to using Madagascar as a base is shown by the fact that a British warship was torpedoed at anchor by a Japanese mini-sub in the port of Antisiranana shortly after the town was captured by British forces.

Each campaign was a direct reaction to Axis actions or to prevent imminent Axis actions.

Other Vichy colonies were ignored, regardless of their strategic importance and however lightly they may be defended, Djibouti and French Indochina for instance, because the British simply didn’t have the forces to spare for discretionary actions; it was the absolutely critical operations and nothing else.

In the Pacific the British were walking a fine line; they wanted to support the Nationalist Chinese because they saw that as a way of limiting the Japanese, but they didn’t want their support to be so blatant that it provoked a Japanese attack.

Likewise they were willing to support American actions and American proposed embargoes but were absolutely terrified that the American embargoes would result in provoking a Japanese attack on the European colonies of South East Asia that the American’s, having provoked the attack, would take not action to defend.

The British had next to no air and sea forces in the Pacific and precious little land forces, and they were unwilling to divert forces away from the war in Europe and the Mediterranean to prevent a war in the Pacific that may not even eventuate.

It also needs to be remembered that the Japanese had an intelligence network thoroughly covering all of South East Asia; a British Fleet isn’t going to sail into the South China Sea without them being aware of it.
 
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Cook brings up an bteredting scenario. if the Japanese wait until December 7 to attack Indochina, then that means fewer Japanese troops elsewhere. So that effects the war.
 
So if Indochina becomes alligned with the Free French forces, they will cause a minimal impact. The French forces in Indochina as Cook points out were in no position to be able to defend the colony against a Japanese attack. When the Japanese attack they will secure the areas that they require deep water ports, and proclaim a puppet regime similar to Manchuko under Bao Dai. The best result for the French in this scenario is to have an army that continues to fight in the hinterland (Laos, Western Tonkin, Cambodia). However their ability to be fight will be limited due to resupply issues.

The Naval force will proceed south to link up with the ABDA forces, as the IJN would obliterate it on the high seas. If you have a particularly aggressive commander then a submarine may be based out of Indochina, but the all important logistics would come into play rendering them ineffective quickly.

Post war would be interesting with a surviving French army in Indochina a cooperative native regime, and possible surviving influence of the VNQD vs the Viet Minh.
 
If France stays in the war, then there would have been more forces in Indochina and more importantly, an attack on Indichina brings war with Britian. So the attack would be delayed until December 7.
 
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