WI - Pacific War begins in 1937?

The old DOS based Carriers at War game has a 1936 War Plan Orange scenario between the US and Japan that is a lot of fun to play.
 
Have the Japanese sink the Panay, survivors swim ashore, and a Junior Japanese Officer With A Plan decides that starting a war with the US sounds like an amazing idea, and orders the survivors bayoneted, and their bodies desecrated. They're captured on film doing this by a missionary up stream or something along those lines, who smuggles the film out.
 

Driftless

Donor
A by-product of a war including any of the combatants listed earlier (Japan, Britain, France, US)would likely jumpstart military developments (both equipment and doctrine) that may be involved in the European based war to come.
 

Jack1971

Banned
Oooo... the French Navy. I've mostly thought of this war in terms of a generator for hypothetical naval battles. Alone the French fleet is not a big challenge for the IJN. But, alongside the Brits it tips the Japanese side way down.
The French navy of 1937 won’t have a ton to contribute, but its army in FIC, will be putting great pressure on the Japanese forces in China.

As for the French navy, here’s what I have them sending in 1937, with submarines being the top contributor.

1xCV Bearn
1xBC Dunkerque class (commissioned 5/37)
4xCA Algérie, plus 3x Suffren class
3xCL Émile Bertin, 2x La Galissonnière
6x DD 45 knot Le Fantasque class
15xSSK Redoutable-class
1xSS cruiser, Surcouf

What’s the best use of Surcouf? I’m thinking remove the guns and hangar, convert her to a Milchkühe. But the aircraft may be good for scouting for poodle packs (what’s a French wolf pack?).
 
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France didn't have the same problem with unemployment at that time as the US, from the manpower shortage thanks to WWI, between that, and Banks being far more Conservative in practices. So were among the least effected countries

Now they did have Laval's deflationary policy, that made things go nearly as bad, just as with Hoover. But they had far more trouble with Strikes in the latter part of the '30s, so the Depressions effects(though not severe) in France were delayed by 5 years or so, and had more Political changes than economic for France

Whatever the causes and severity of France's economic problems in 1937, she was far too preoccupied with internal affairs and with the situation in Europe (including Spain and German rearmament) to go to war with Japan over China. (Now if Japan attacked French Indochina it would be a different matter, but that was still a pretty distant prospect in 1937...)
 
In 1937 the Kido Butai consist of two small light carriers(one of dubious seaworthiness), no A5M as yet(that arrived late August 1937) and 10 battleships, four of these capable of being penetrated by cruiser gunfire.

Against the USN, the RN and the French Navy. Curbstomp.
 
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Whatever the causes and severity of France's economic problems in 1937, she was far too preoccupied with internal affairs and with the situation in Europe (including Spain and German rearmament) to go to war with Japan over China. (Now if Japan attacked French Indochina it would be a different matter, but that was still a pretty distant prospect in 1937...)

in 1933 "At the time of his (von Seeckt) arrival, Sino-German relations were in a bad state owing to the racial arrogance of the Germans, and Chiang was considering firing the Germans and bringing in a French military mission." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_von_Seeckt

French-KMT cooperation would have been interesting scenario, certainly better able to aid Chinese in developing at least rudimentary navy.
 
With the possible exception of Subs, I feel any Chinese navy would be a waste of funding that could go towards modernizing the Army. Not to say it couldn’t have butterflies, particularly if a coastal sub catches a couple heavy cruisers sailing slow, dumb, and overconfident, with WT doors open...
 
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The film was the critical aspect of it all. Had somehow, a non-edited version of the film been released, isolationism or no, IMO FDR's hand would have been forced and the US would have gone to war. For a different POD, change the nationality of the cameraman from US to Italian. Would Mussolini have released it? I think the might have, and we can spill gallons of electronically pixelated blood over it. Below is a link on the film.

http://www.usspanay.org/newsreels.shtml
 
The film was the critical aspect of it all. Had somehow, a non-edited version of the film been released, isolationism or no, IMO FDR's hand would have been forced and the US would have gone to war. For a different POD, change the nationality of the cameraman from US to Italian. Would Mussolini have released it? I think the might have, and we can spill gallons of electronically pixelated blood over it. Below is a link on the film.

http://www.usspanay.org/newsreels.shtml
How would this war play out?
 
Too many variables to do more than speculate. Is the unedited film released, somehow accidentally or purposely by an American? Or, if the cameraman was Italian, is it by order of Mussolini? If by an American, Congress will get involved. Did FDR ask for the editing? Yes. Does that become known? Hell to pay on the domestic front then. In fact, after thinking on that, I have to reconsider my earlier statement above, because it could give the Republicans something to use against FDR and maybe impetus to keep us out of the war. IMO a case could be made for either, not just for war.
If its an Italian release, what does it gain Mussolini? Italy certainly wouldn't go to war (not alone) against Japan, not with being embroiled in Spain and Ethiopia. What kind of diplomatic advantage does he gain? I'll let others weigh in on that.
 
Too many variables to do more than speculate. Is the unedited film released, somehow accidentally or purposely by an American? Or, if the cameraman was Italian, is it by order of Mussolini? If by an American, Congress will get involved. Did FDR ask for the editing? Yes. Does that become known? Hell to pay on the domestic front then. In fact, after thinking on that, I have to reconsider my earlier statement above, because it could give the Republicans something to use against FDR and maybe impetus to keep us out of the war. IMO a case could be made for either, not just for war.
If its an Italian release, what does it gain Mussolini? Italy certainly wouldn't go to war (not alone) against Japan, not with being embroiled in Spain and Ethiopia. What kind of diplomatic advantage does he gain? I'll let others weigh in on that.
Let's say its purposefully released by an American - how does this play out?
 
Whatever the causes and severity of France's economic problems in 1937, she was far too preoccupied with internal affairs and with the situation in Europe (including Spain and German rearmament) to go to war with Japan over China. (Now if Japan attacked French Indochina it would be a different matter, but that was still a pretty distant prospect in 1937...)

in 1933 "At the time of his (von Seeckt) arrival, Sino-German relations were in a bad state owing to the racial arrogance of the Germans, and Chiang was considering firing the Germans and bringing in a French military mission." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_von_Seeckt

French-KMT cooperation would have been interesting scenario, certainly better able to aid Chinese in developing at least rudimentary navy.

With the possible exception of Subs, I feel any Chinese navy would be a waste of funding that could go towards modernizing the Army. Not to say it couldn’t have butterflies, particularly if a coastal sub catches a couple heavy cruisers sailing slow, dumb, and overconfident, with WT doors open...

submarines and small fast attack boats were what KMT China ordered from Germany and likely the beginnings of any naval force developed with France as well.

think the real advantage would be the French are based in Indochina and would not (immediately) be cut off from KMT regime during hostilities, also French relations with USSR were better than Germany's at the time mentioned (1933) so they might have been seen as useful intermediary with them as well.
 
Far from showing any willingness to go to war with Japan in 1937, France cut off arms shipments to China via the railroad linking French Indochina to China. "The French explained the decision to prohibit arms shipments through Indochina in what came to familiar terms. First, as Premier Camille Chautemps put it, the Japanese, 'in a most polite way but letting him feel the iron,' had indicated that they had long memories and that, should a European war break out, they would remember those who had committed unfriendly acts. Second, the Japanese had threatened not only to destroy that part of the French-owned Haiphong- Yunnanfu Railroad that ran through China but to seize the Chinese island of Hainan, a move that would allow them to dominate the Gulf of Tonkin and which further would place them in a good position to threaten the security of Indochina.23 Simply put, French possessions and interests were too exposed to risk retaliation by Japan." https://books.google.com/books?id=qovQzYYDv08C&pg=PA111

All this, remember, was at a time when "The attention of most Frenchmen was riveted on the Spanish Civil War, which was at its peak and had produced a severe Mediterranean crisis because of a sharp increase in attacks against neutral shipping in the area. From Paris, the American ambassador, William C. Bullitt, observed, 'The French Government faced by its troubles in Europe is somewhat loathe to take any active part with regard to matters in the Far East.'" https://books.google.com/books?id=qovQzYYDv08C&pg=PA105

In general, "European considerations dominated French policy toward the Far East. From the very beginning of the Sino-Japanese conflict, the Quai d'Orsay had warned that 'French policy must, in the present circumstances, concentrate its action in Europe.' For this reason, it had been of the utmost importance to avoid involving the League in any far-off enterprise that would only weaken still further its waning influence and thus make it unable to affect the European crisis. As a result of this fear, American support in the Far East had assumed even greater importance. This had been one of the principal motivations for France's support of the idea of a Nine Power Conference, for the conference would directly involve the United States in the issue. But before the Brussels Conference met, of course, the French had made it manifest that the two crises—in Europe and in the Far East—were related. Leger had indicated that 'it was clear that as long as the present tension existed in Europe it would be impossible for France, or for that matter for England, to take part in any common action in the Far East which might involve or imply at some later stages the furnishing of armed forces.' Regrettably, Leger conceded, this situation facilitated aggression in the Far East, but it was a fact and had to be faced.'..." https://books.google.com/books?id=qovQzYYDv08C&pg=PA166

At least in the absence of US cooperation--which American public opinion made impossible--there is just no way France is going to war for China in 1937. Period.
 
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What’s the best use of Surcouf? I’m thinking remove the guns and hangar, convert her to a Milchkühe. But the aircraft may be good for scouting for poodle packs (what’s a French wolf pack?).

Doctrine of the era would have Sucrof & the other sub screening the fleet and stalking the IJN fleet, hoping to attrition it a bit. Great War experience caused most navies to conclude a submarine blockade would fail. Merchant ships were low on the target priority list. Look at how both the USN & IJN deployed subs in 1942 & you will get the idea. Coastal defense was the other common mission in naval doctrines.
 
In 1937 the Kido Butai consist of two small light carriers(one of dubious seaworthiness), no A5M as yet(that arrived late August 1937) and 10 battleships, four of these capable of being penetrated by cruiser gunfire.

Against the USN, the RN and the French Navy. Curbstomp.

Every time I look at the IJN of 1937, or 38, it looks like a sad little war.

... and 10 battleships, four of these capable of being penetrated by cruiser gunfire.

I assume you are referring to the Kongo class there. Four battle cruisers built pre 1914, upgraded to 'battleships' in the 1920s & 30s. Off Guadalcanal two were shredded, one by US cruisers with mostly 6" & a few 8"guns, & the other by a few salvos of 16" shots. On the miniatures table they seem to be the first sunk.
 
What if the Pacific War began in 1937 and during the time of the Second Sino-Japanese War? How could the US (and potentially the Allies) get earlier involved in the Pacific and/or Asia against Japan?
What if the Russians had gotten involved in the Second Sino-Japanese war?
 
Possible. From a Russian POV, they'd gain a lot of combat experience. [Playing HoI3 game as the Russians, I sent the entire navy around in '36 to fight the Japanese. Lost them all!]
 
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