WI: Ottomans win the Russo-Turkish War.

The Russo-Turkish war was once quite close to ending in an ottoman victory. According to Wikipedia's article on the course of the war:
"Osman Pasha organized a defense and repelled two Russian attacks with colossal casualties on the Russian side. At that point, the sides were almost equal in numbers and the Russian army was very discouraged.[36] Most analysts agree that a counter-attack would have allowed the Ottomans to gain control of, and destroy, the Russians' bridge.[who?] However, Osman Pasha had orders to stay fortified in Plevna, and so he did not leave that fortress."
But what if Osman had decided to disobey his orders, or what if the ottoman high command had seen the opportunity gap and ordered him to attack?
Assuming that this would lead to an ottoman victory in the overall war...
-What would the post-bellum map look like? How much of the balkans and the eastern mediterranean will remain in ottoman hands? Will there be further uprisings against ottoman rule?
-How well off will the ottomans be from the war? Will they be seen as a great power once again and not as "the sick man of Europe"? Will there be further "tanzimat" reforms?
-What will happen to Russia after their army is routed from the war? Will there be revanchism or will anger against the tsar be greater than that? Is there possibility for political reform as a compromise?
-Considering that the balkan crises against Austria led to Russia leaving the Three Emperors' League, is there a chance for such an alliance to survive in this scenario?
 
No takers?
Let me espouse my opinion...
I think the turks could avoid a lot of the political problems and ethnic strife they suffered by continuing the tanzimat. Though i don't know if they'd go for a more german-inspired reform or a more british-inspired one.
 
By this time the Tanzimat was grinding down to a trickle, if not to a complete halt. And ethnic strife had already reached great levels on both sides. Winning a war, while always helpful, is unlikely to fix the Ottoman Empire's underlying problems.
 
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By this time the Tanzimat was grinding down to a trickle, if not to a complete halt. And ethnic strife had already reached great levels on both sides. Winning a war, while always helpful, is unlikely to fix the Ottoman Empire's underlying problems.
...wasn't one of the reasons for tanzimat to prevent social strife by granting equal rights to non-muslims?
I know that the main perpetrator of the reactionary coup was sultan Abdul Hamid, but couldn't he have been convinced of the reform's effectiveness in case of a major victory?
 
Look for a thread by Onkel Willie titled "rebirth of the ottoman empire". Deals with a an OE win in this war. A great TL IMO.
 
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...wasn't one of the reasons for tanzimat to prevent social strife by granting equal rights to non-muslims?I know that the main perpetrator of the reactionary coup was sultan Abdul Hamid, but couldn't he have been convinced of the reform's effectiveness in case of a major victory?

That was indeed supposed to be the Tanzimat's main feature; but in practice it was very limited and slow, and often completely sabotaged by provincial elites. At first, the Ottoman central government was genuinely committed to reform, but after the Crimean War they too were more and more half-hearted (not to say half-assed) about it.

Abdul-Hamid made changes to the Constitution, securing his own practically unlimited power; and he deposed the constitutionalist, pro-reform strongman Midhat Pasha before the war was lost - before the war even started, in fact.

And even if the Sultan has a drastic change of heart and appoints a genuine reformist government - they'll have a very hard time trying to bring its ethnic groups together. The (already poor) relations between the Empire's Muslims and non-Muslims will hit a new low after all that's been done during the war, no matter who wins.
 
I think that the Ottomans have a uphill battle no matter what. Say what you will about the Habsburgs as rulers, but they was widely beloved by most of their subjects and even today remembered fondly. The Ottomans on the other hand was active despised and few outside Turkey and the Muslim minorities on the Balkans miss them or have fond memories of them.
 
I think that the Ottomans have a uphill battle no matter what. Say what you will about the Habsburgs as rulers, but they was widely beloved by most of their subjects and even today remembered fondly. The Ottomans on the other hand was active despised and few outside Turkey and the Muslim minorities on the Balkans miss them or have fond memories of them.

The Czechs at least seem to remember every Hapsburg after Rudolf II as tyrants. But maybe they are an exception.
 
The Czechs at least seem to remember every Hapsburg after Rudolf II as tyrants. But maybe they are an exception.

I'm sure the Bosnian Serbs doesn't like them either and I'm not sure about the TYranssylavian Romanians. But pretty much everyone else while not wishing to be under Vienna, still seem to remember the empire fondly. Of course the horrors which followed do help on that, but you would have a hard time finding a Greek, Armenian, Assyrian, Syriac, Arab, Bulgarian, Macedonian, Serb etc. who have any fondness for the Ottomans.
 
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