WI:Ottomans win the First Balkan War

You'd need a POD at least a decade earlier to give the Ottoman military some time for vital reforms. Turning the local Christian conscripts to unarmed construction and supply units would make their desertions less disastrous, and getting rid of the worst reservist rabble formations is also necessary. Then you'd need to butterfly away the influence of "French-type", offensive-focused school of thought, and make the Ottomans respect their former vassals a lot more. Additionally the Bulgarian deception plan that achieved total strategic surprise needs to be changed to the earlier, more straightforward variant as well. It is doable, but the problem is that the Balkan League invaded only because they knew that the Ottomans were hard-pressed and in a middle of an ambitious military reform program.

And even if they win, the Powers will bail the League members out, and actual Ottoman territorial concessions are a few Greek islands at best. Geopolitically their victory would have more wide-ranging effects, though. Many heads of states and especially key politicians would feel their position threatened by a major losses, whereas the prestige of the Young Turk government would increase. An Ottoman victory would certainly butterfly away WW1 as we know it, as the Serb nationalists would still have Kosovo as their primary focus.
 
You'd need a POD at least a decade earlier to give the Ottoman military some time for vital reforms. Turning the local Christian conscripts to unarmed construction and supply units would make their desertions less disastrous, and getting rid of the worst reservist rabble formations is also necessary. Then you'd need to butterfly away the influence of "French-type", offensive-focused school of thought, and make the Ottomans respect their former vassals a lot more. Additionally the Bulgarian deception plan that achieved total strategic surprise needs to be changed to the earlier, more straightforward variant as well. It is doable, but the problem is that the Balkan League invaded only because they knew that the Ottomans were hard-pressed and in a middle of an ambitious military reform program.

And even if they win, the Powers will bail the League members out, and actual Ottoman territorial concessions are a few Greek islands at best. Geopolitically their victory would have more wide-ranging effects, though. Many heads of states and especially key politicians would feel their position threatened by a major losses, whereas the prestige of the Young Turk government would increase. An Ottoman victory would certainly butterfly away WW1 as we know it, as the Serb nationalists would still have Kosovo as their primary focus.
The Balkan league would have tried againmprobably in WW1,with the help of Russia
 
You'd need a POD at least a decade earlier to give the Ottoman military some time for vital reforms. Turning the local Christian conscripts to unarmed construction and supply units would make their desertions less disastrous, and getting rid of the worst reservist rabble formations is also necessary. Then you'd need to butterfly away the influence of "French-type", offensive-focused school of thought, and make the Ottomans respect their former vassals a lot more. Additionally the Bulgarian deception plan that achieved total strategic surprise needs to be changed to the earlier, more straightforward variant as well. It is doable, but the problem is that the Balkan League invaded only because they knew that the Ottomans were hard-pressed and in a middle of an ambitious military reform program.

And even if they win, the Powers will bail the League members out, and actual Ottoman territorial concessions are a few Greek islands at best. Geopolitically their victory would have more wide-ranging effects, though. Many heads of states and especially key politicians would feel their position threatened by a major losses, whereas the prestige of the Young Turk government would increase. An Ottoman victory would certainly butterfly away WW1 as we know it, as the Serb nationalists would still have Kosovo as their primary focus.

The POD can be much later. First, the Turks need to end the Italian war quickly. They gain nothing, its expensive and hopeless. The wasted resources devoted to fighting Italy put into their European forces would probably be enough. Second, the Turks need to defeat the Greek navy. The Turks aren't outclassed at sea and could pull this off. If they do, then they quickly defeat Greece and land reinforcements at will. third, they shouldn't have demobilize 70,000 men in the summer. Fourth, if the Turks can entice the Romanians into the First War instead of the Second one, then their victory is assured

An Ottoman victory would change the dynamics of the region While the Turks won't gain much- probaby minor border adjustments and an indemnity, neither would Serbia. Serbia's value as an ally o Russia would be gone and the need to back the Serbs in 1914 would drop. The Serbs would also not be all that interested in expansion into Bosnia, the assassination wouldnt happen and wwi prevented
 
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