WI Ottomans stay neutral in WWI?

What if the Ottomans stay neutral in WWI, by the RN not taking their battleship under construction and then Germany's Mediterranean squadron gets intercepted and destroyed before it reaches Turkey? How would WWI be different? I have always wanted to do a timeline off of this...
 
Hmm.. we might see some changes to the outcome depending if the Ottomans let the Entente powers ship goods through the straits to Russia. Bulgaria wouldn't join the Central Powers if it couldn't secure it's eastern rear. I'm not a WWI or Russia expert so I'm not sure if it would be enough to tilt the balance enough for an Entente Victory with a reformed - but a surviving Russian Empire (no October Revolution -> No Communism -> No Hitler?) creating a lot of butterflies. Feel free to disprove me but I think Russia sent it's best troops to fight the Ottomans (not 100%).

For the Ottoman's themselves, if they can keep the oil rich Arab regions to themselves, then we might as an Ottoman Empire surving for a longer time. Assuming they create more of an Ottoman national identity and reform themselves. The Arab-Israeli conflict would be butterflied away as well.
 

The Vulture

Banned
The state of Israel could very well be butterflied away. Remember that Palestine was part of the League of Nations mandate.
 
The entire region would likely remain under the Ottomans, plus those portions of the Arabian Penninsula not under Ottoman rule in 1914.

No Israel, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq...

Once the oil is discovered the Ottomans will have all they need to modernize their nation in whatever ways they need and they won't let themselves fall behind in military terms either.


The Entente can send Russia all the supplies they need and perhaps even some specialist units so the CP are in worse shape than OTL. Bulgaria may stay out but so too may Greece as there isn't any hope of the gains Athens wants the most.
 
I still think that the Ottoman Empire would break up, even without the Great War. If/when it did, there might have been a single Arab state as a result, along with possible a Kurdish one and Armenian one.
 
Hmm...I remember trying to think up a TL where the Goeben and Emden are sunk so the Ottomans never join the CP and then go from their...
 

Paul MacQ

Donor
The events that lead to the Ottomans entering the war was better looked at as The Holding of the Battleships that had been paid for and the arrival of Goeben and Emden being what tipped the Balance tip the Balance on the Ottomans getting involved. It was a war with its old enemy Russia

They had Fought Russia in 1878 and lost influence over there European provinces and ever since then Russian had been the support every other war the Ottomans had been involved in since,

The Ottomans had been involved in the Italo-Ottoman war in Libya and the first and second Balkans wars all in the last 3 years and was exhausted.

The Russ

Ottoman Empire: Ottoman military casualties listed here are from data in the Ottoman Archives which total 771,844 war dead including 243,598 killed in action, 61,487 missing action and 466,759 deaths due to disease. The number of wounded was 763,753 and POWs 145,104 Other estimates of Ottoman military casualties are as follows: By UK War Office in 1922: Killed 50,000, died wounds 35,000, died of disease 240,000, By US War Dept in 1924: 325,000 killed and died

Ottomans Total conscripted: 2,850,000 max strength: 8,000,000
KIA:771,844 WIA:763,753 POW (combined):145,104 AWOL:500,000

No Armenian issue and a very supportive Kurdish population at this time, And the outside powers occupied. The Arab issue can be dealt with, Would there be a Arab revolution. Possible , But one thing for sure the House of Saud is going to get it’s head handed to it on a plate, and there is a bunch of much more level headed options.

Persian Campaign was fought in northern Persian Azerbaijan and western Persia (the provinces of East Azerbaijan, West Azerbaijan and Ardabil, including the cities of Tabriz, Urmia, Ardabil, Maragheh, Marand, Mahabad and Khoy)

The Ottomans Held down about 800,000 Russian and about a similar Number of British empire Indian Divisions 800,000 Indian troops Compared to the 150,000 that served on the Western Front. Not even taking into account the British and Anzac forces.

For a highlight of a mostly forgotten campaign Just one of the areas the Russian’s and Ottomans fought

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caucasus_Campaign

The wars fought by the Ottomans between 1908 and 1918 Gutted them if you take away WW1 they are in a totally different position. And after a WW1 the players meddling in there affairs are in no state to do so

The big winner of those still fighting are the Russians with a Southern Boarder still needing watching but not using Ordinance and some of the best most experienced Troops. Austro Hungry is going to feel some Pain early

One Question is I would think the Ottomans would close the Straights and with Ottomans not fighting,The Bulgarians had just fought 2 wars with the Ottomans and would be weary about going to War if they are not Busy. if that Happens reduce the number of Central powers Troops by a few Hundred Thousand.
 
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This will obviously be a boon to the Entente. Britain, France, and Russia will all avoid wasting resources on Middle Eastern campaigns and have more to commit against Germany. Supplies through the straits aren't a panacea (Britain and France weren't shitting materiel either), so there may still be a 1915 disaster for Russia, but a less severe one opening the way for a *Brusilov which may break Austria for good: Bulgaria won't come in, which possibly saves Serbia (the Serbs were holding on until Bulgaria's attack, and the Salonika front troops were IIRC originally intended to relieve the Serbs), and Romania will certainly come in for the Entente, with Russia doing better and Bulgaria neautral. Chuck in the Italians, divert more German troops to the west (against the Anglo-French "Gallipoli force") and... ouch.

So probably a quicker Entente Bolshevik victory without Bolshes. What will become of the Ottomans now is an interesting question. If they've managed to dismantle the "Armenian Reform Package" and the capitulations generally, they're in a very good position, what with the oil, but whether or not they have, I can't imagine the victorious Russia staying quiet, since they wanted the straits OTL...

I still think that the Ottoman Empire would break up, even without the Great War. If/when it did, there might have been a single Arab state as a result, along with possible a Kurdish one and Armenian one.

The Arab political movement was growing at the time, but anti-Ottoman nationalism was a pretty much exclusively Christian phenomeon, with the Muslim Arabs divided between "Arabists" who wanted more cultural and political autonomy and "Ottomanists" who didn't (this latter group may seem strange, but remember nationalism had resulted in massacres of Muslims in various places and so many were suspicious of it), and the Levant was firmly integrated into the Ottoman state. The Kurds were pretty muhc without anti-Ottoman nationalism, and while the Armenian question was a very o
 

Paul MacQ

Donor
Things like the Berlin-Baghdad Railway would be completed

The Bagdad Mosul link would be Done and the resourced to get Kirket oil would be well under way.

The German Conssesions would be interestiing in Bassra, I am sure the British would push for them, also the Northern Anatolia Rail might have been started
Rail as of mid 1915
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e0/BagdadRailwayMapEn.png

Rail line going all the way to Yemen,

The lessons and Technology are there now a after WW1 to great increase the ease for Policing vast areas of land an example of how the British did it AIR CONTROL: LESSONS FROM IRAQ 1919-1939

http://8squadron.co.uk/history_1920-1939.php

https://www.afresearch.org/skins/ri...9d0a-580862168d9b/display.aspx?rs=enginespage

The Ottomans had kep the lid onf Arab expansion for many years, The Eruopeans warn out by a war, And the Ottomans given a chance to get house in order without there meddling would be relatively easy

The Great Game beyween Britain and Russia starts again. and Britain and France have so much War suplus that would go Cheap and an Interest in Keeping the Ottomans alive with a all powerful Russia, at its Northern Boarder.
 
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