WI Ottomans partitioned before Tanzimat

Well, Muhammad Ali Pasha and his son Ibrahim Pasha led that invasion. So the Saudis may still be taken down by the Egyptians. If they aren't though, or the Saudis recreate a state like OTL, they have significant opportunities to extend their influence across the Sunni world... if not expand north and actually take territory.

That’s true. The First Saudi State was very powerful, and I strongly suspect they would be in a position to threaten Iraq and Kuwait, though perhaps not to the point of conquest.
 
I’m not sure if you’d see a collapse so much as a decentralization, as the beys and pashas would continue to gain power while continuing to pay lipservice to the Ottoman emperor. Imagine the scenario in North Africa, albeit across the Ottoman Empire.
Baghdad and Basra seem more likely than not to fall from central authority, either to the Persians or the British; as discussed, the Balkans, short of Adrianople, will be more effectively under the power of Russia or Greece (which I'm thinking will be French aligned TTL); and the Ionian Islands, Crete, and Cyprus fall to either to annexation (by Greece or France) or to British influence, similar to Egypt. With the exception of the Levant (the Damscus and Tripoli Eyelets), which might similarly fall to British or Egyptian "influence", this leaves a "core" Ottoman Empire not too unlike Turkey OTL. And with all the hungry powers surrounding them, I wonder how long this "core" Ottoman Empire can stand to be decentralized.
 
Semi-true. The Armenians' loyalty to the Porte gradually crumbled throughout the 19th century, due to various forms of mistreatment. The Zeitun Rebellion of 1862 was a major break point; by the late 1870s, things had already progressed to the point where the Russians were massively welcomed as liberators.

But in Napoleon's time the Armenians were still (relatively) quiet.

There's a distinction to be be made between the OE cultural construction of the "loyal millet" and the actual feelings of Armenian peasants in eastern Anatolia. The perception of the Armenians being loyal was still there in the 1870's. For example, when Armenians won 3 of the Christian seats in Istanbul during the first Constitutional period, the Greeks protested that the OE was favoring them for being the most loyal minority. See also the article Caught in the Storm of Progress: Timoteos Saprichian, Ethiopia, and the Modernity of Christianity:

Yet some Armenians of the Ottoman Empire were able to mitigate the formal restrictions on their millet, at times even acquiring power and profits from the Ottoman state. Succinctly, the Ottoman world was one in which they were increasingly integrated. Mesrob Krikorian has observed that no other dhimmi community "had such a large and permanent co-operation with the Ottoman government in the public affairs of Eastern Anatolia and Syria as the Armenian millet."22 While this relationship rapidly deteriorated in the last decades of the nine teenth century, reaching its tragic nadir in the genocide of the twenti eth century, Armenians were nonetheless crucial to the functioning of Ottoman society for much of the preceding centuries. Indeed, even as late as the 1870s, when Saprichian first published his narrative, many Ottoman Muslims still considered Armenians the millet i-sadika: "the loyal community," in contradistinction to the "instinctively hostile" and increasingly nationalist Greek and Slav millets.23 And while as Suny notes, the conception of an "ever-faithful" Armenian commu nity can only be understood as "a cultural construction of the domi nant nationality," its positive valuation was nonetheless based on a real commitment among many Armenians to the Ottoman system. Even if they would have rejected the idea of their own status as favorable, during the nineteenth century most Ottoman Armenians continued to "hope for the best within the Ottoman legal structure."24 Though indi vidual strategies and experiences undoubtedly varied tremendously, we can still discern the general patterns of this integration.

Even AHII clearly noticed Armenian loyalty before things turned nasty. See this statement from him to the Armenian patriarch during 1877:

I know that the Armenian people suffered a great deal in this war. But they should know that as compensation for these hardships very good times await them. They will reap all the benefits due to them for their loyalty; good fortunes are in store for them. I am fond of all my subjects but especially the Armenian people who in these grave times have demonstrated the fruits of their centuries-old fidelity.93

(From Chapter 5 of Vahakn Dadrians Warrant for Genocide).
 
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