WI Ottomans conquer Belgrade in 1440

What it says:
What if the Ottoman army had conquered Belgrade in 1440 - and let`s add John Hunyadi as a casualty of the battle -?
How much of the Balkans and Hungary could they gain and bring under their control? And what kind of butterflies might flap their wings across the rest of Europe?
 
Skanderbeg may still stay with the Ottomans if Hunyadi is killed in 1440. From what I recall, Skanderbeg deserted the Ottomans with roughly 300 Albanians while they were fighting Hunyadi in 1443.

Of course, the opposite may happen and Skanderbeg may desert earlier than OTL, thus causing issues in what is now Albania.
 
Hungary is facing a civil war between Vladislaus of Poland and Ladislaus the Posthumous of Austria, with Hunyadi out of the game Vladislaus lost his main ally in Hungary and the Polish magnates weren't very keen in a crusade against the Ottomans, but with the Turks getting Belgrade the Poles may seem the heathen horde with different eyes.

That said, maybe the two parties can call for a ceasefire to fight the Ottomans, if they do it they may repel the Turks, if not (the most likely IMO) Hungary itself may not lost significant land, but Sigismund's buffer system in the Balkans'll fall two decades earlier.
 
Hungary is facing a civil war between Vladislaus of Poland and Ladislaus the Posthumous of Austria, with Hunyadi out of the game Vladislaus lost his main ally in Hungary and the Polish magnates weren't very keen in a crusade against the Ottomans, but with the Turks getting Belgrade the Poles may seem the heathen horde with different eyes.

That said, maybe the two parties can call for a ceasefire to fight the Ottomans, if they do it they may repel the Turks, if not (the most likely IMO) Hungary itself may not lost significant land, but Sigismund's buffer system in the Balkans'll fall two decades earlier.
Thanks for your replies! Why would Hungary not suffer serious territorial losses?
 
Were the Turks actually in a position to expand or project power that far west (meaning into Hungary) at this point in time? If memory serves, it was a logistical challenge even after they had more thoroughly asserted control over their side of the Balkans.
 
Difficult, yes. OTOH, Hungary's mainland is infrastructurally more easily controllable than Any other part of centrtal eastern Europe.
Also, turning the Hungarians into vassals like the Vlachs should have been in the cards, should it not?
 
I believe Hunyadi wasn't in Belgrade at the time; he he only took over its defense in 1441. But let's juts assume he went there for some reason and died.

Hunyadi was a capable commander, but he was not a cornerstone of Wladyslaw's faction; just one of his many supporters in the civil war. His death will be pretty inconvenient, but the war can't last very long and is still likely to end in a way favorable to Wladyslaw of Poland.

After the civil war is resolved, the campaign against the Ottomans should proceed relatively well. Due to a slightly worse internal situation and the loss of a good commander, Hungary's Christian coalition will be less successful than in OTL, but it should still be able to recover Hungary's own territories and at least some of Wallachia, Serbia and Bosnia.

While their short-term gains will not be as impressive, that may be a blessing in disguise. The King might be worried enough to sign a honest treaty with the Ottomans. That would preserve Hungary's gains and some of its internal stability, and allow it to avoid something like OTL's catastrophe at Varna.
 
@Halagaz,
I agree that more cautiousness and a more acute awareness of Ottoman power and the prevention of Varna would have served the Kingdom of Hungary well.
You are right, of course, that Hunyadi was merely one capable military leader, and his death would not have changed everything.
But what about the strategic importance of Belgrade? Wasn`t it one of the key fortresses? Would its fall not have worsened the conditions for the defense of Southern Hungary considerably?
 
@Halagaz,
I agree that more cautiousness and a more acute awareness of Ottoman power and the prevention of Varna would have served the Kingdom of Hungary well.
You are right, of course, that Hunyadi was merely one capable military leader, and his death would not have changed everything.
But what about the strategic importance of Belgrade? Wasn`t it one of the key fortresses? Would its fall not have worsened the conditions for the defense of Southern Hungary considerably?
I know that this would be directed towards Halagaz but I would like to provide some input. Yes, Belgrade is of strategic importance due to its location on the confluence of Sava and Danube Rivers. The area was switching between Ottoman and Hapsburg control for a long time. If the Hapsburgs wanted control of Belgrade in OTL then I imagine that it would be the same ITTL.
 
Hunyadi was a capable commander, but he was not a cornerstone of Wladyslaw's faction; just one of his many supporters in the civil war.

My bad, I screwed the timeline. :p


His death will be pretty inconvenient, but the war can't last very long and is still likely to end in a way favorable to Wladyslaw of Poland.

Why? Hunaydi was a capable commander, which from the perspective of one evenly balanced civil war it's big deal, after all it was during this particular war that John rose as legend, without him Újlaki is either alone or with some not notable commander in Bátaszék, in fact with the Ottomans winning in Belgrade Újlaki may be assigned to his post in Macva, meaning that the battle can go either way which has HUGE consequences.

Even with Hunaydi's surprisingly success, Wladislav still didn't control around 1/3 of the country and the Polish estates weren't much happy with his Hungarian adventures.

But what about the strategic importance of Belgrade? Wasn`t it one of the key fortresses? Would its fall not have worsened the conditions for the defense of Southern Hungary considerably?
It would a blow yes, but there are other fortresses around like Timisoara, Sigismund had established a series of southern fortifications on the Sourthern Marches to counter the Ottomans, of course Belgrade was the jewel of it, but it wasn't a instant game over for the Hungarian defenses.
 
@Halagaz,
I agree that more cautiousness and a more acute awareness of Ottoman power and the prevention of Varna would have served the Kingdom of Hungary well.
You are right, of course, that Hunyadi was merely one capable military leader, and his death would not have changed everything.
But what about the strategic importance of Belgrade? Wasn`t it one of the key fortresses? Would its fall not have worsened the conditions for the defense of Southern Hungary considerably?

Belgrade was at a fairly important location, as Behemoth already said. I'm definitely not an expert on that stuff, but I'm not sure capturing it would have given the Ottomans that much of an advantage.

First, the Ottomans didn't manage to fully conquer Serbia until mid-1441. Belgrade's hinterland still wouldn't have been pacified and IMO that limits Belgrade's own usefulness. At some point the Ottomans will conquer the remaining Serbian strongholds, but they're bound to waste time there and the more time they waste the closer Hungary comes to internal peace and consolidation.

Second, it's not like failing to capture Belgrade in OTL really stopped the Ottoman armies - they were still able to invade Transylvania and parts of southern Hungary.
 
Why? Hunaydi was a capable commander, which from the perspective of one evenly balanced civil war it's big deal, after all it was during this particular war that John rose as legend, without him Újlaki is either alone or with some not notable commander in Bátaszék, in fact with the Ottomans winning in Belgrade Újlaki may be assigned to his post in Macva, meaning that the battle can go either way which has HUGE consequences.

Even with Hunaydi's surprisingly success, Wladislav still didn't control around 1/3 of the country and the Polish estates weren't much happy with his Hungarian adventures.

Hm, I didn't really consider the possible impact on Bataszek. That's also worth thinking about.

However, I get the impression that Wladyslaw's victory was almost inevitable. The overwhelming majority of the nobles supported him; and many of Elizabeth's few supporters were located to the south, so they'd be very inclined to switch sides (like Ujlaki) and/or get distracted by the Ottomans.
 
There are a couple of things that I can think of that would make losing Belgrade an issue. If the Ottomans controlled the city it would cause an issue with trade related travel and would permit some travel for military purposes along the river.
 
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