What if John Hunyadi was less successful in mounting resistance in Belgrade (known to the hungarians as Nandofehervar) against the ottomans in 1456, leading to an Ottoman turkish capture of the city? IOTL, the failure of the Ottomans in capturing the city allowed Hungary to bounce back and annex Bosnia and Serbia while puppetizing Wallachia and Moldova, and the kingdom was briefly a strong regional power under the rule of John's son, Matthias. Unfortunately, Matthias couldn't secure the throne for his sole bastard son and had an incompetent successor who neglected the security of the country, until Hungary as an independent kingdom was defeated at the Battle of Mohacs in 1526.
Suppose that Belgrade falls in 1456. Could this lead to Mehmed II Fatih capturing Budapest next? Would he make Hungary a vassal, or would Ladislaus, The Posthumous, refuse to comply?
Does this cause a domino effect across the Balkans, making Wallachia and Moldavia fall to the Ottoman yoke earlier than IOTL?
 
What if John Hunyadi was less successful in mounting resistance in Belgrade (known to the hungarians as Nandofehervar) against the ottomans in 1456, leading to an Ottoman turkish capture of the city? IOTL, the failure of the Ottomans in capturing the city allowed Hungary to bounce back and annex Bosnia and Serbia while puppetizing Wallachia and Moldova, and the kingdom was briefly a strong regional power under the rule of John's son, Matthias. Unfortunately, Matthias couldn't secure the throne for his sole bastard son and had an incompetent successor who neglected the security of the country, until Hungary as an independent kingdom was defeated at the Battle of Mohacs in 1526.
Suppose that Belgrade falls in 1456. Could this lead to Mehmed II Fatih capturing Budapest next? Would he make Hungary a vassal, or would Ladislaus, The Posthumous, refuse to comply?
Does this cause a domino effect across the Balkans, making Wallachia and Moldavia fall to the Ottoman yoke earlier than IOTL?

Mehmed II secures the Balkan from Hungarian attacks, Hungary can be raided. Don't know if Hunyadi still dies but his succesor Matthias Corvinus might do some attempts to take it back. When Mehmed II leaves for Trabzon one should expect a counterattack from Hungary. That is atleast What I would do.

Will there be a Crusade organised? Maybe. But not really something more threatening than Varna or Nikopol. There also would not be an earlier Ottoman Conquest of Hungary.
 
The biggest issue for the Ottomans in my mind is Hungary, Poland, and Austria joining forces to take back Belgrade while the Ottomans are campaigning against the Mamlukes.

Then again, that war only lasted a year. Even still, after Belgrade falls the rest of the Hungarian plane will inevitably fall with it, because there is no force which can defeat the Ottomans in open battle during this period of history. With Belgrade, all the Ottomans have to do is commit the resources and Budapest/the rest of the Balkans will fall after the Hungarian army finally decides to engage.

The Austrians and Polish could assemble an army and start marching into the Carpathian Plains while the Ottomans are off campaigning, but all they have to do is march back and defeat them in another desicive battle, or force them to retreat back out of the basin.

That could actually make for an interesting timeline. The Ottomans conquer Hungary in the 1460's, and at a later date start their campaign against the Mamlukes. During this campaign, the Archduke and associates assemble a large force and begin marching with the intent of reconquering the plains, Belgrade, and as much of the Balkans as possible. The Ottomans swiftly conquer the Mamlukes as they did IOTL, march back to Belgrade and destroy the assembled forces, and march on what is now the undefended city of Vienna.
 
This timeline would eventually lead in the defeat of the Hapsburg and could lead to a Crusade, driving back the Ottomans from Northern Balkans.
 
Budapest wont fall as it doesnt exist at the time - but lets put the minor details aside.

So Hunyadi didnt had his final and greatest victory at Belgrad. First even if the conquest of Hungary is not continued immediatly this changes things greatly. First Hunyadi's son will have a harder time getting elected as king. How much strength did the Hunyadi supporters lose at Belgrad in numbers and at important person?

Belgrad was the key of Hungaries southern defense system. OTL it fell in 1521 and this predated the destruction of Hungary at Mohács with only 5 years. Hungary under Matthias was pretty strong - but to get there you have first 2 extra years under a weak king. Even IF Mathias gets the crown things will be vastly different. First this will influence his politics greatly. OTL he tried to secure the HRE in order to be strong enough to directly attack the Ottomans. His black army never had a direct battle with the ottoman main forces. ITTL he would be forced to either retake Belgrad as a top priority - and that will likely need beating the main turkish forces to be possible - or build new defenses. Under his reing the crown had the resources at its disposal to do so. IMO he will try to retake - maybe as suggested by others by using an opportunity when the Ottomans are elsewere distracted. If that fails he will build new defenses.
 
Poles were busy fighting Teutonic Order, they would not help, especially considering the fact that Polish Queen, Elizabeth of Austria, sister of King Ladislas V, despised Matthias Corvinus, whom she regarded as usurper, and King Casimir, who lost his brother in anti-Ottoman crusade, would not want to share his fate.
 
What about Hunyadi's older son? Might be that he doesn't get captured and executed ITTL.

I dont know his character, but im not sure he has a better chance to be elected. OTL Mathias was very young and part of the reason he was chosen is than it was thought that he would be easily controlled. Being older doesnt help with this.
 
Bumping for interest.
What about Ladislaus, The Posthumous?
Doomed to die from leukemia in one year. Also for Ladislaus Hunyadi, considering how stupidly he acted after his father's death (killing the Regent and taking the King prisoner only for later to go into Buda unguarded with his little brother) makes me doubt he would be a good King (if he even gets elected, Matthias was the only choice to appease the Hunyadi-Szilágyi Liga that was created in response of Matthias' arrest and the other magnates) as before Matthias you needed to be related in some form to a previous monarch to be King.
 
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