WI Ottoman victory in the balkan war

What if the Ottoman empire won the war? Here some factors to considerate in this scenario:

*They do not fight all of balkan states at the same time, they first concentrate in Greece and Bulgaria and then go for Serbia and Montenegro

*The ottoman navy attacks the Greek navy as soon the war starts, the greek navy had almost no ammo in 1911 (Correct me if I'm wrong)

Maybe the romanians could attack Bulgaria or at least send a ultimatum for southern Dobrudja after noticing the lack of victories in part of the balkan league

What do you think?
Ottoman_troops_with_flag.jpg
 

Deleted member 1487

We had a Turkish-American poster that got banned a while back who knew insane amounts about the Ottoman Empire and could have answered everything. Since he's been gone I don't think anyone has filled his shoes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Balkan_War#Reasons_for_the_Ottoman_defeat
I don't know nearly as much, but how could the Ottomans not fight everyone? Everyone opted to fight the Turks. The Turks could have delayed the start of the war perhaps via diplomacy to complete mobilization, but then would have to fight the entire Balkan League anyway.
 
We had a Turkish-American poster that got banned a while back who knew insane amounts about the Ottoman Empire and could have answered everything. Since he's been gone I don't think anyone has filled his shoes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Balkan_War#Reasons_for_the_Ottoman_defeat
I don't know nearly as much, but how could the Ottomans not fight everyone? Everyone opted to fight the Turks. The Turks could have delayed the start of the war perhaps via diplomacy to complete mobilization, but then would have to fight the entire Balkan League anyway.

Simple by fighting a defensive war against Serbia and Montenegro while most of the ottoman army focus on striking on greece and Bulgaria
 

Deleted member 1487

Simple by fighting a defensive war against Serbia and Montenegro while most of the ottoman army focus on striking on greece and Bulgaria
Could they possibly have been successful doing so? And what would stop the Serbs from putting troops into Greece and Bulgaria to aid their allies?
 
Could they possibly have been successful doing so? And what would stop the Serbs from putting troops into Greece and Bulgaria to aid their allies?

Well, as far I know most of the europeans expected the ottomans to win the war, and only a colossal amount of military mistakes made them lose it so horribly, I think by making strategical retreats while bleeding the enemy manpower and preventing most of the ottoman army from falling into pockets, while striking deep into bulgaria and serbia could have made they at least got a status quo ante bellum
 

nbcman

Donor
Well, as far I know most of the europeans expected the ottomans to win the war, and only a colossal amount of military mistakes made them lose it so horribly, I think by making strategical retreats while bleeding the enemy manpower and preventing most of the ottoman army from falling into pockets, while striking deep into bulgaria and serbia could have made they at least got a status quo ante bellum

The forces that the Ottomans had in Europe (about 345k) were outnumbered by the Bulgarians alone (390k) at the start of the conflict. It would be difficult for the Ottomans to gain more than limited local superiority to advance into Bulgaria while losing ground everywhere else. Without the Ottomans either keeping some of the Balkan League forces out of the war or by getting more of their forces in Europe by an earlier mobilization or an earlier end to the Italo-Ottoman war, the Ottomans were screwed as they were outnumbered more than 2 to 1 IOTL.
 
There's a detailed study about the reasons of the Ottoman defeat written by Edward J. Erickson: "Defeat in Detail: The Ottoman Army in the Balkans, 1912-1913"
If you want to change the outcome of the OTL 1st Balkan War into an Ottoman victory, you'd need a much earlier POD. To make the war a bit less lopsided and turn it into a situation where the Ottomans retain more territory in Thrace, these two changes in 1912 would suffice:
1. Nazim Pasha chokes on a pistachio and the Ottomans retain the defense-oriented strategic setup advocated by von der Goltz.
2. Bulgarian strategic debate about the main axis of attack leads to a different conclusion, and/or their brilliant OTL operative ruse fails.
 
It would be interesting, but as others have said, it would need some serious POD to succeed. Now if the Ottomans might be able to make some side agreements to split up the League, they might do better and not have to face so many at once.
 
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