WI: Ottoman Empire falls later – what does the Middle East look like?

Incognito

Banned
So the current borders of nations in the Middle East have a lot to do with the way the Ottoman Empire was divided up following end of WW1. There were different proposals for what post-Ottoman Middle East & Anatolia should look like, but eventually one was settled on and for better or for worst we are stuck with what we have now.

But what if the Ottoman Empire collapsed at a later date? Let’s say they stay neutral in WW1 but the various nationalist movements tear it apart in the 1930s. Or maybe Ottomans side with the Nazis (I invoke the butterfly net here!) and are divided up post-WW2.

How would another 20-30 years of Ottoman rule change the “realities on the ground”, which in turn would change what new nations would arise from the ashes of the Empire? And what would happen to the various non-Turkish minorities in Anatolia? Would they get their own nations this time?
 

Rich Rostrom

Incognito said:
But what if the Ottoman Empire collapsed at a later date? Let’s say they stay neutral in WW1 but the various nationalist movements tear it apart in the 1930s.
Click to expand...

The thing is, Arab nationalism, was largely a product of WW I - incited by the British, and gaining traction in the wake of the Ottoman collapse.

Egyptian nationalism is a force, but Egypt was already out of the Ottoman sphere, and Egyptians didn't have any real solidarity with Levantine or Mesopotamian Arabs.

Kurdish nationalism has never really gone anywhere.

The effects of Ottoman survival (ISTM) are that France and Britain don't take over much of the Middle East; and Arab nationalism stays quiescent.

A subtler knock-on is that as the Ottomans modernize, they stop tolerating a terra nullius in central/eastern Arabia. The put some motorized forces into the field, and regularize the situation in Nejd - thus aborting the rise of the House of Saud.
 

Deleted member 67076

The problem is a surviving Ottomans would nip Arab and Levantine nationalism in the bud as those were the result of British attempts to incite revolt. As well, the Ottomans were well on their way to modernizing, (they weren't the sick man by WWI's start, although still weaker than the other powers, a bit like Japan) and integrating the other ethnic groups. '

A sense of "Ottoman Nationalism" as opposed to ethnic nationalism was developing too which, given an extra 20 years, would do much to dull any support for national support in addition to modernization and integration.
 

Malta

Well, to really get the Ottomans to side with the British and French you need them to give up most of their concessions in the Levant.
 

Falecius

I'd say that collapse for internal reasons OR being on the wrong side of *WWII would cause very different breakups.

First, the POD is in 1914, so the Young Turks are in power and likely to keep it.
The ideology of the Young Turks was not an entirely consistent and exactly well-defined set of beliefs and policies, there was a lot of ad hoc adjustements, but, at heart, they believed in a Turkish identity as the basis for the Ottoman state.
That tended to piss off the Arab intellighentsia, who, for their part, quite lacked an effective rallying point until into WWI, but sure as hell were not going to appreciate Young Turk policies.

So, Arab and probably Kurdish nationalisms are going to develop regardless, esp. if the Ottomans get bogged down in campaigns into the Arabian peninsula against the Saudis and maybe Yemen too (that may prove quite costly). If the Empire somehow collapses on its own, I can see it divided into an Arab state (that might or might not include the Mount Lebanon) a Kurdish state and an Armenian one, and of a Turkish national state in Anatolia. The Arab Fertile Crescent provinces probably remain together, although there's potential for a lot of tensions between Iraqis and Levantines on a geographical basis (esp. when it turns out that Iraq has oil). Parts of the Peninsula probably are going with them for the ride, most likely Hijaz (unless the Hashimites keep it independent, that's an option) and al-Hasa, possibly Najd as well.
Yemen is going to be independent in all likelyhood.
Depending on what the other powers are up to, Russia might take Anatolian Armenia.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top