I am currently exploring the possibility of using the Ottoman palace coups in 1807-1808 as a POD for the early collapse of the empire. If Mahmud II is successfully murdered, who would become the sultan? Would Mustafa Bayraktar take the throne after he deposes Mustafa IV, or is there some distant relative of the sultans that would be invited to take power? With the throne unstable, how likely is it that the empire would collapse?

If the empire collapses, would Russian gains during the ongoing Russo-Turkish war be more substantial, and if so, what else would be taken? What happens to the Danubian Principalities? How would the various pashas and beys throughout the country fill the vacuum left? How would the Serbian Revolution change?
 
If the Ottoman Empire does collapse completely at this time, the Serbs should achieve complete independance, though no doubt the Great Powers will limit their boundaries as much as possible. Probably losses during the Serb Rebellion is one of the contributory causes to the Empire' collapse. Russia will take more than just Bessarabia; how much I'm not sure. Perhaps Ali of Tepelene, Pasha of Ioannina, becomes completely independant, though how long that will last is anyone's guess! Serbia's successful independance is likely to have a 'domino effect' among the various peoples of the Balkans...
 
In the Napoleonic Prussia TL I did years back, Selim III survives and Mahmud is killed. Mustafa Alemdar Pasha marries Esma Sultan and becomes Selim's heir. He later has to fight off a Giray-Janissary rebellion with European support. I have no clue if this was realistic in the slightest, but there are so few English sources on this era in Ottoman history.
 
I am currently exploring the possibility of using the Ottoman palace coups in 1807-1808 as a POD for the early collapse of the empire. If Mahmud II is successfully murdered, who would become the sultan? Would Mustafa Bayraktar take the throne after he deposes Mustafa IV, or is there some distant relative of the sultans that would be invited to take power? With the throne unstable, how likely is it that the empire would collapse?

If the empire collapses, would Russian gains during the ongoing Russo-Turkish war be more substantial, and if so, what else would be taken? What happens to the Danubian Principalities? How would the various pashas and beys throughout the country fill the vacuum left? How would the Serbian Revolution change?
The timing would be really bad for the Ottomans because in the 1807 Russian squadron established blockade of the Dardanelles (as a result of the following food riots Sultan Selim III was deposed) and if the empire is really falling apart the Russians could march from Bucharest, which they were already occupying all the way to Istanbul and try to establish control of the Straits. This may or may not mean direct Russian annexation of the Principalities (they may end up as the vassal states).
On the Caucasus theater they'd probably grab the coastal area and Kars (most of Armenia was in the Persian hands).
 
My ideas for the timeline so far:

Mustafa IV successfully gets Mahmud II assassinated, in addition to Selim III. When Mustafa Bayraktar marches on Constantinople, he finds that there is no living heir, and declares himself Sultan. The janissaries then depose and kill Mustafa Bayraktar, and place one of themselves on the throne. Algeria and Tunisia go independent, Egypt continues its civil war (Mehmet Ali eventually wins like OTL), and Iraq breaks off under the Mamluks. The Russians march from the Danube to Constantinople and take it. Serbia expands with the help of Russia, while Ali Pasha carves out his own state. Anatolia and the Levant become a battle ground between the derebeys. The Russians make peace with whatever rump Ottoman Janissary government exists. In the treaty, they annex Bessarabia, and vassalize the Danubian Principalities. They gain the Russian/Georgian Black Sea Coast, as well as Batumi and Kars. Last but not least, they get Constantinople.

How would the other great powers react, considering the Napoleonic Wars are occuring? How does Napoleon's invasion of Russia change the region, if it does at all? Would TTL's version of the Vienna Conference strip away some of Russia's gains? Britain and Austria, when Napoleon is finally gone, are probably frightened of Russia. How could Ali Pasha manage Greek nationalism within his domains?

EDIT: @Koprulu Mustafa Pasha is quite the expert on the Ottoman Empire, so I tagged him here.
 
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