Originally posted by Matthais Corvinus
In the event of a more successful Ostrogothic rebellion, the Byzantines would probably pay the Lombards to invade Northern Italy (as they planned to do anyway) in order to distract the Goth-Frankish alliance and allow the Byzantines breathing room in the North.
Then the Byzantines would be able to pick up Northern Italy after the barbarians are done killing each other.
I agree in part with you, although the part respect to the esperance that the barbarians could mutually kill each other could be at the end a mistake for the byzantines, what if the lombards demand help to avars in exchange of the help that they gave to the avars in the conquest of the gepids, and the lombards demand help to some frankish kingdom (like Burgundy or Austrasia), the final outcome could be a struggle in the northern Italy that would not benefit the byzantines because there would be at the end too much contendants making a lot of more mess the situation in Northern Italy.
In any case also in OTL although Justin considered necessary to solve the problems in the Western Mediterranean (not only Italy, also in Hispania the visigoth king Atanagildo begin to press the byzantines possesions in the south and in Africa the morish king Garmul inflicted several defeats to the byzantine army) he desired too a victory against Persia which was a total mistake opening a war in two fronts that ended bad with the loss of Dara against the persians in 573.
In TTL probably Justin would have the same obsession with Persia which would mean that if the plans of mutually anhilitate lombards and ostrogoths in a war betwen them fails because the presence also of avars and frankish, the byzantines could find tied in the East when in Northern Italy four potent armies are in presence: lombards, avars, ostrogoths and franks.
Originally posted by Matthais Corvinus
Perhaps the Byzantines attempt to divert the whole Avars enterprise west, to take care of the emerging Frankish threat as well? I don't know if the Avars had any longer-term plans to settle on Imperial lands (as many other barbarian tribes in the past had), but certainly if they did some Byzantine gold could turn their ambitions for sedentary lifestyle west.
It seems that khan Bayan, the ruler of the avars, prefered to expand in the north towards the northern slavs, in OTL the avars also seemed not have intention to made any territorial conquest within the Empire, prefered to raid with the aim to press Justin to resume the payment of the tribute to the avars.