WI Ostrogoth remnants and Franks evict Byzantines from Italy in 560s?

After Teia's defeat at the hands of the Byzantine eunuch general Narses at the Battle of Mons Lactarius, in October 552 or early 553, organized Ostrogothic resistance ended.
Goth General Widin, however, was able to organize a Gothic revolt in northern Italy in 554 with Frankish help but was captured in 561 or 562. After that, the Ostrogoths faded in obscurity...
WI the combined Franco-Goth forces under Widin were able to defeat Byzantines and claim Italy again?
How is this altering History? Any thoughts?
 
It is possible that we had a northern ostrogothic kingdom under frankish protection, but I think that even with frankish help there would serious difficulties for a total retaking of Italy by the ostrogoths, principally because:

- The byzantine obsession about Italy was clear during the reign of Justinian, Justin and Maurice, the three emperors were decided to remain in Italy by the force and they had taken the measures adequated to resist the ostrogothic effort, they could have lose the northern part of Italy because this POD but they would reinforce the rest of Italy.

- The frankish united kingdom under Clovis another time fragmented thanks to this great frankish tradition of divide the kingdom between the sons: in 561 after the death of Clovis another time the kingdom was divided, this naturally means that the ostrogths could get some help from the frankish kingdom that is bordering with him (probably Burgundy) but naturally this is not the same that receiving help from an unified frankish kingdom.

With this POD we could get probably a northern ostrogothic kingdom centered in Pavia or Verona (or with some luck could be even in Ravenna) but as I say I doubt about a total reconquest of Italy by the ostrogoths.

Apart of this direct effects could have some interesting butterflies:

In OTL Justin, the successor of Justinian decided to not pay tribute to the avars which meant that these devastated Dalmatia, at the same time the longobards in alliance with the avars defeated the gepids preparing the terrain from the now conquered gepid lands invade Italy, in TTL but the fact that the byzantines are surely fighting against ostrogoths in Italy could made think twice Justin of the necessity to broke the payment of tribute to the avars (the contrary would be a war in two fronts -apart of ever protecting in the East against any possible persian movement-), this could save Dalmatia of the avar raids.

In the other side could the ostrogoths defend better than the byzantines of a probable longobard invasion? Could the ostrogoths decide to ally with the gepids to prevent a possible new agressive neighbour int the person of the longobards? but naturally this last movement could be dangerous if we thought that they would have to fight the longobards and the avars and with surely a front line against the Eastern Romans.

This last event: what would happen with the longobards in TTL would be the key to know if the ostrogothic kingdom could have a truly far longer life than in OTL.
 
Apart of this direct effects could have some interesting butterflies:

In OTL Justin, the successor of Justinian decided to not pay tribute to the avars which meant that these devastated Dalmatia, at the same time the longobards in alliance with the avars defeated the gepids preparing the terrain from the now conquered gepid lands invade Italy, in TTL but the fact that the byzantines are surely fighting against ostrogoths in Italy could made think twice Justin of the necessity to broke the payment of tribute to the avars (the contrary would be a war in two fronts -apart of ever protecting in the East against any possible persian movement-), this could save Dalmatia of the avar raids.

In the other side could the ostrogoths defend better than the byzantines of a probable longobard invasion? Could the ostrogoths decide to ally with the gepids to prevent a possible new agressive neighbour int the person of the longobards? but naturally this last movement could be dangerous if we thought that they would have to fight the longobards and the avars and with surely a front line against the Eastern Romans.

This last event: what would happen with the longobards in TTL would be the key to know if the ostrogothic kingdom could have a truly far longer life than in OTL.

In the event of a more successful Ostrogothic rebellion, the Byzantines would probably pay the Lombards to invade Northern Italy (as they planned to do anyway) in order to distract the Goth-Frankish alliance and allow the Byzantines breathing room in the North.

Then the Byzantines would be able to pick up Northern Italy after the barbarians are done killing each other.

Perhaps the Byzantines attempt to divert the whole Avars enterprise west, to take care of the emerging Frankish threat as well? I don't know if the Avars had any longer-term plans to settle on Imperial lands (as many other barbarian tribes in the past had), but certainly if they did some Byzantine gold could turn their ambitions for sedentary lifestyle west.
 
Originally posted by Matthais Corvinus
In the event of a more successful Ostrogothic rebellion, the Byzantines would probably pay the Lombards to invade Northern Italy (as they planned to do anyway) in order to distract the Goth-Frankish alliance and allow the Byzantines breathing room in the North.

Then the Byzantines would be able to pick up Northern Italy after the barbarians are done killing each other.

I agree in part with you, although the part respect to the esperance that the barbarians could mutually kill each other could be at the end a mistake for the byzantines, what if the lombards demand help to avars in exchange of the help that they gave to the avars in the conquest of the gepids, and the lombards demand help to some frankish kingdom (like Burgundy or Austrasia), the final outcome could be a struggle in the northern Italy that would not benefit the byzantines because there would be at the end too much contendants making a lot of more mess the situation in Northern Italy.

In any case also in OTL although Justin considered necessary to solve the problems in the Western Mediterranean (not only Italy, also in Hispania the visigoth king Atanagildo begin to press the byzantines possesions in the south and in Africa the morish king Garmul inflicted several defeats to the byzantine army) he desired too a victory against Persia which was a total mistake opening a war in two fronts that ended bad with the loss of Dara against the persians in 573.

In TTL probably Justin would have the same obsession with Persia which would mean that if the plans of mutually anhilitate lombards and ostrogoths in a war betwen them fails because the presence also of avars and frankish, the byzantines could find tied in the East when in Northern Italy four potent armies are in presence: lombards, avars, ostrogoths and franks.

Originally posted by Matthais Corvinus
Perhaps the Byzantines attempt to divert the whole Avars enterprise west, to take care of the emerging Frankish threat as well? I don't know if the Avars had any longer-term plans to settle on Imperial lands (as many other barbarian tribes in the past had), but certainly if they did some Byzantine gold could turn their ambitions for sedentary lifestyle west.

It seems that khan Bayan, the ruler of the avars, prefered to expand in the north towards the northern slavs, in OTL the avars also seemed not have intention to made any territorial conquest within the Empire, prefered to raid with the aim to press Justin to resume the payment of the tribute to the avars.
 
King Alduin of the Lombards was a vassal of Justinian I who granted him Pannonia to settle at the time... so in the event that Lombards manage to subdue Franks and Ostrogoths Italy returns to Byzantine rule... at least nominally...
 
You have reason, but his son Alboin would be so respectful to the Empire that his father or he would follow more or less the same path than in OTL?
 
You have reason, but his son Alboin would be so respectful to the Empire that his father or he would follow more or less the same path than in OTL?

Alboin conquered almost all of Italy but he didnt harmed Pope nor Exarchate of Ravenna... He couldnt stand a Byzantine attack or he was honouring his father who was Justinian's foederatus?
 
Ravenna was a very well manned and fortified city, Alboin simplily avoid to made a siege that could be a neverending task, but in the case of another less fortified cities like Pavia no doubted in siege and attack them, respect to Rome I dont know exactly why he don´t attack it although probably Alboin could have thought that attacking the pope would not be wise, the franks were catholics for example, attacking the Pope would be the best way to that the pope begins to reclaim help to the franks if the byzantines were reluctant to help him.

Simplily I think Alboin was chosing the best options to made a relatively quick campaign to conquest the most part of Italy possible (also the lombards had a lot of dukes and internal infighting, Alboin knew that trying to make a siege against Ravenna or attacking the Pope could mean a lof of dangerous headaches and if the dukes are watching you, any stupid movement could made a longobard king fall).
 
If Alduin had managed to defeat Franks and Ostrogoths i think that Alboin might risked an attack to Rome... Franks wouldnt have been a threat after their potential defeat from his father and Byzantines were busy in Persia by that time to aid the Pope... (plus they wouldnt open a war if Ravenna isnt threatened...)
 
I agree, the circumstances in this case in TTL would be differents than in OTL, with the franks yet defeated in Northern Italy (and dividided because from 561 there would be 4 frankish kingdoms not an unified monarchy to could decide to counterattack the lombards) and the byzantines ocuppied in a war against Persia Alboin could attack Rome (in fact I suspect than more of one in the byzantine court would smile a lot with the perspective of having the Pope a lot of troubles).

This is naturally a possible path with this initial POD (the other path would be that the lombards had been defeated by franks and ostrogoths).
 
Top