WI: Osama wasn't there

It was DEVGRU, not the USMC. Also, this is basically impossible. Osama is very sickly, along with being a very recognizable face, going anywhere is tough for a man in his condition. And the intel and operation were unbelievably careful and practiced. Everyone knew the stakes of it being screwed up.

Also, the mission was covert. No one knew until it was over. If Osama hadn't been killed, we wouldn't have ever heard about the operation. Even if the helicopter failures and Pakistani outcry still happen, it's not like stepping on Pakistani sovereignty is out of the ordinary for us. We would have just said "shut up we're hunting terrorists" and it would have been like any other day in Pakistan.
 
I'm not going to question how or why.

It's simple - Obama fucks up major. It's the worst decision of his career and his presidency and becomes a bigger stain on his record than Benghazi could ever hope to be. He went into the territory of an American ally with means of deadly force in the middle of the night without contact and the old man wasn't even there. It'd be an international incident and it'd permanently scar Obama's foreign policy record. Not to mention it'd hurt our relationship with Pakistan like hell, and above all, the most wanted terrorist in America would still be loose over ten years later.

If the Republicans spun that on top of the economic issues, they might come closer to the White House in 2012 - not only can Obama not fix the economy, but he's hurting our allies and failed to avenge American deaths. It's everything Benghazi is to Republicans but with independent appeal.

This is a much more fascinating POD than I thought.
 
Nothing would happen. It would most likely not leak out, and if it would it would be much later without any political effects. Osama was too sick and incapable at this time to be any real threat to USA (though his organisation was/still are) so him being alive for awhile longer would also have no effects.
 
It would leak out through the Pakistanis. Civilians in the area noticed the helicopters. Add the crashed one and the shooting (Osama isn't there, but other people might be) and the USA gets in yet another diplomatic incident with Pakistan. And this one is in a city, not in their northern mountains.

Still, I don't think the USA would announce they were specifically targeting Osama - they will probably talk about high ranking Al-Qa'ida members, and the diplomatic brush with Pakistan won't have any immediate practical consequence. The Pakistanis would be more pissed than OTL, though.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Nothing would happen. It would most likely not leak out, and if it would it would be much later without any political effects. Osama was too sick and incapable at this time to be any real threat to USA (though his organisation was/still are) so him being alive for awhile longer would also have no effects.

Depends on the scenario. If Obama and his entire crew sneaked out at the last minute and the helicopter did not crash, sure both sides may want to cover it (USA and Pakistan).

I prefer a simpler and more interesting scenario. A few hours before the attack, Osama leaves the compound - medical treatment, to met courier, go to local coffee shop, whatever. USA lands, and like OTL, the chopper crashes. People die in the compound, but the USA is empty handed. Pakistan have violation of their sovereignty but USA has no Osama. It gets interesting from there.
 
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