WI: Osama captured or killed under Bush Administration

Sachyriel

Banned
If it was in his first term I think Afghanistan would have been drawn down in preparation for Iraq earlier, his second term still assured. In his second term I think he would have merely enjoyed a bit higher approval ratings.
 
Now that the bully is gone can we rebuild the sandcastle he kicked over?

Now to answer the question. It depends on when in his term he catches Bin Laden. If it is near the begining of Operation Enduring Freedom we might have a much greater draw down in Afghanistan. I think we'ld still be there now, but our presence would be much smaller. If we caught him after we went into Iraq, say around the time it was discovered there weren't any wmds, Bush's approval ratings would be saved from destruction and would be guarenteed re-election in 2004. If it had happened in the summer of 2008 we might see John McCain have a better chance of winning, Palin or no Palin.
 
When in the Bush administration does this happen? The consequences will be different depending on the year it happens.
 
If it happened immediately after the fighting in Afghanistan, Bush would've received even MORE approval and popularity. Wouldn't last too long though, what with the Iraq thing and whatnot.

He'd probably be in the same boat he was in for the '04 elections.

If it happened during his second term, people probably would've been happy for a few days, then that'd be about it. He'd have one bright spot on a dark term. Probably wouldn't effect the '08 election too much, as there were more pressing issues at the time.

Just because you kill someone like Bin Laden doesn't necessarily mean you'll get smooth sailing for the rest of your term.
 
The best time for Bush to benefit from this happening is early 2006. The new Iraq strategy is being put into place, and Republicans will be slightly less unpopular however temporarily. The GOP still loses the White House in 2008 and likely Congress too if control of both houses is not still lost in 2006.
 
If it was in his first term I think Afghanistan would have been drawn down in preparation for Iraq earlier, his second term still assured. In his second term I think he would have merely enjoyed a bit higher approval ratings.

I think he'd have a better perception as president today... maybe that horrid Mission Accomplished picture would be remembered as a masterful work of political showmanship rather than well... outrageous idiocy.
 
The "Mission Accomplished" incident pertained specifically to Iraq, and, incidentally happened on the same day (but eight years earlier) as Obama's anouncement regarding the death of OBL.

Yeah so it probably wouldn't have changed much in this ATL. The only way for that phrase not to be ill-advised would be if they had captured Saddam in the midst of the fighting AND found WMDs.
 
Theoretically, if it happened very soon after the start of the war in Afghanistan-say 02/03- we could see a large reduction in Al-Qaeda attacks. Bali perhaps goes on still, but Madrid and London aren't planned on the basis of a weakened organisation, and a demonstration of 'we will find you, we will kill you' in a more timely fashion.
 
I dunno... that was mostly in regards to the War in Iraq... wasn't it??? :confused:

True, but who's to say he wouldn't try the same if not a similar idea? It was supposed to be a "hey look at what I can do" picture that if it hadn't been at completely the wrong time may well have improved his poll numbers.
 
Yeah so it probably wouldn't have changed much in this ATL. The only way for that phrase not to be ill-advised would be if they had captured Saddam in the midst of the fighting AND found WMDs.

Americans have short attention spans. All of the papers would go with "Mission Accomplished" as the headline upon capture, and it would help more than hurt because it would discredit (albeit perhaps temporarily) that the Iraq War was a distraction.
 
If the POD is sometime around Tora Bora things will be interesting. Iraq may either become a bigger problem (if the head honcho is dead the "fight them over there so we don't have to fight them over here with nukes they might have but don't right now" thing is an even harder sell than OTL) or butterflied away altogether due to being too implausible to sell, while the problems in turning the Northern Alliance into a viable Afghan government are still going to be there no matter what happens in Mesopotamia.
 
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