WI: Osama Bin Laden killed at sometime between 9/11 and Tora Bora (or at Tora Bora)

I'm sure that this has been asked before; but I am going to do it anyway.

My question to all of you is the following; what would have happened if Al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden had successfully been killed by the United States sometime between 9/11 and the Battle of Tora Bora; or at the Battle of Tora Bora? How would Bin Laden's early death effect history?
 
Bush's approval ratings go through the roof, and al-Qaeda will have some serious problems. Part of their appeal was that Osama was able to strike America and suffered no consequences (until 2011 of course, but at that point the legend had already grown). However if he is killed 3 months after 9/11 that myth never springs up. Furthermore the al-Qaeda of 2001 is not the al-Qaeda of today. It was a much smaller and weaker organization, and I don't know if Zawahiri or any of the other leaders of al-Qaeda have the skill to bounce back from such a major defeat, or expand their influence.
 
Bush's approval ratings go through the roof, and al-Qaeda will have some serious problems. Part of their appeal was that Osama was able to strike America and suffered no consequences (until 2011 of course, but at that point the legend had already grown). However if he is killed 3 months after 9/11 that myth never springs up. Furthermore the al-Qaeda of 2001 is not the al-Qaeda of today. It was a much smaller and weaker organization, and I don't know if Zawahiri or any of the other leaders of al-Qaeda have the skill to bounce back from such a major defeat, or expand their influence.

Yeah, I would think that al-Qaeda would be seriously fucked if Osama gets killed so early - they would be considered as the group that overstepped their bounds that managed to successfully attack America; but then get squashed like a tiny bug very quickly. That would definitely hurt their chances of growing and recovering from such a defeat.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
This makes Bush's reelection in 2004 less likely. He (or Karl Rove, rather) effectively used the "Osama bin Laden is still out there" bogeyman card to frighten voters in 2004 into supporting the "tough on terrorism" Republican ticket against the "waffling" Democratic ticket.

If Osama bin Laden is killed, people will largely feel that the terrorist threat has been pretty dealt with and will be anxious to get back to the way things had been before 9/11.
 
Yeah, I would think that al-Qaeda would be seriously fucked if Osama gets killed so early - they would be considered as the group that overstepped their bounds that managed to successfully attack America; but then get squashed like a tiny bug very quickly. That would definitely hurt their chances of growing and recovering from such a defeat.
There's also the leadership factor. Bin Laden was the best guy to lead al-Qaeda, since only he really had the charisma and the organizational skills to make it. Zawahiri has neither, as evidenced by his failure IOTL to lead well after Bin Laden's death.
This makes Bush's reelection in 2004 less likely. He (or Karl Rove, rather) effectively used the "Osama bin Laden is still out there" bogeyman card to frighten voters in 2004 into supporting the "tough on terrorism" Republican ticket against the "waffling" Democratic ticket.

If Osama bin Laden is killed, people will largely feel that the terrorist threat has been pretty dealt with and will be anxious to get back to the way things had been before 9/11.
I think actually it increases his chances. Bin Laden's death would be a huge propaganda victory, since Bush could claim to have essentially won the War on Terror within a few months of starting it.
 
This makes Bush's reelection in 2004 less likely. He (or Karl Rove, rather) effectively used the "Osama bin Laden is still out there" bogeyman card to frighten voters in 2004 into supporting the "tough on terrorism" Republican ticket against the "waffling" Democratic ticket.

If Osama bin Laden is killed, people will largely feel that the terrorist threat has been pretty dealt with and will be anxious to get back to the way things had been before 9/11.
Bush will have killed Bin Laden, but will still have invaded Iraq (riding on that wave of popularity, Democrats will be even less able to resist that particular war), so will still have Saddam as a bogeyman. Plus, one of the standard attacks by Democrats was that by focusing on Iraq instead of Afghanistan, Bush had let Al Qaeda regroup (both Kerry and Obama played this card). ITTL that attack will be much less successful.
 
Not much changes under Bush other then an even greater view that high tech and Special Ops now replaced the need for boots on the ground in war which Rummy and many, but not all generals were pushing at the time. The only possible change unless Saddam wakes up from his stupor to realize the U.S. isn't screwing around right now (which isn't likely) is that the U.S. goes in even lighter into Iraq with even fewer troops in the initial invasion.

Under Obama though alot more changes... I don't see him going ahead with the zero option in Iraq in 2011 and next year Afghanistan without the political support on national security that the death of Bin Laden brought him. It was the death of Bin Laden that ironically threw Obama's foreign policy into complete free fall and convinced him he knew more then his own policy advisers and generals.
 
Not much changes under Bush other then an even greater view that high tech and Special Ops now replaced the need for boots on the ground in war which Rummy and many, but not all generals were pushing at the time. The only possible change unless Saddam wakes up from his stupor to realize the U.S. isn't screwing around right now (which isn't likely) is that the U.S. goes in even lighter into Iraq with even fewer troops in the initial invasion.

Under Obama though alot more changes... I don't see him going ahead with the zero option in Iraq in 2011 and next year Afghanistan without the political support on national security that the death of Bin Laden brought him. It was the death of Bin Laden that ironically threw Obama's foreign policy into complete free fall and convinced him he knew more then his own policy advisers and generals.

Why do you assume Obama will be elected in 2008? Maybe another Democrat wins.
 
Why do you assume Obama will be elected in 2008? Maybe another Democrat wins.

Its possible, but only if Zarqawi is killed earlier then OTL before he is able to marry the back to faith Saddamists and jihadists creating Monothism and Jihad/AQI and today IS and set off sectarian violence in 2006 otherwise he rides his 2002 speech though the primaries once again.

Zarqawi's importance to the war tends to be vastly understated with a focus on what we did wrong not what the enemy did right. He created the ideology that both the Saddamists and foreign jihadists could come together behind and kept it together when many other less competent figures could have arisen.
 
Top