WI Osama assassination failed spectacularly?

Narnia

Banned
What if instead of Osama B. being killed by a US Navy SEAL team, the plan failed and Osama not only lived but his guards shot down the helicopters, killed the SEAL team and departed for lands unknown, never to be found again?

If Osama's forces had additional weapons like heat-seeking missiles and a better defensive plan it could have gone differently. Let's say that the US intelligence screwed up big time and underestimated the defenses leading to the capture of several soldiers, and the destruction of both the stealth helicopters. Would the world ever know if that happened? How would Pakistan react? Would they try to save the captured soldiers?
 
What if instead of Osama B. being killed by a US Navy SEAL team, the plan failed and Osama not only lived but his guards shot down the helicopters, killed the SEAL team and departed for lands unknown, never to be found again?

If Osama's forces had additional weapons like heat-seeking missiles and a better defensive plan it could have gone differently. Let's say that the US intelligence screwed up big time and underestimated the defenses leading to the capture of several soldiers, and the destruction of both the stealth helicopters. Would the world ever know if that happened? How would Pakistan react? Would they try to save the captured soldiers?

We would probably launch missiles at bin Laden immediately within several minutes. He would've been killed.
 
I can imagine that drones were already aiming at the compound if this were to happen. None the less, I could see Obama's chances at reelection be weakened, though I think the killing of UBL, no matter how many American deaths, would still be seen favorably albeit less than it was OTL.
 
I think it would be really hard for Osama to hide as well as he did again, he would probably be found again in a few months. The American morale would drop a LOT and Obama's popularity would lower.
 

Narnia

Banned
I can imagine that drones were already aiming at the compound if this were to happen. None the less, I could see Obama's chances at reelection be weakened, though I think the killing of UBL, no matter how many American deaths, would still be seen favorably albeit less than it was OTL.

In this scenario the guards at Saddam's compound would have smuggled heat-seeking missiles, so the drones could potentially get shot down. Another possibility is that the Pakistani air force runs into the American incursion and forces them to flee.
 
I don't think it would have been possible for the few men at Bin Laden's compound to have killed all of the seal team. Even if they were pinned down, drones or American aircraft would have fired on the building and destroyed it or any vehicles trying to flee the premise. It would have been more negative, but I think Bin Laden would have ended up dead no matter what in this situation. He would have been identified by DNA later on in the charred wreckage.
 
In this scenario the guards at Saddam's compound would have smuggled heat-seeking missiles, so the drones could potentially get shot down. Another possibility is that the Pakistani air force runs into the American incursion and forces them to flee.
How did you plan on them finding a drone roving quietly miles away that the Pakistanis themselves missed?
 
Wouldn't the eventual assassination of Osama bin Laden, ITL, be seen as something more 'climactic'? My general perception is that after years of hunting him down, finally finding and terminating bin Laden looked like a trivially easy mission. If there's an upset like this, I think it may be viewed with apprehension, and refresh the image of Osama bin Laden as extremely dangerous. This might impact morale but it would increase the fervour of the final hunt.
 

Cook

Banned
Let's say that the US intelligence screwed up big time...
More realistically, US intelligence screws up and Bin Laden simply isn’t there; when the raid commenced there wasn’t more than a 50/50 chance that he really was living there.
 

Narnia

Banned
I don't think it would have been possible for the few men at Bin Laden's compound to have killed all of the seal team. Even if they were pinned down, drones or American aircraft would have fired on the building and destroyed it or any vehicles trying to flee the premise. It would have been more negative, but I think Bin Laden would have ended up dead no matter what in this situation. He would have been identified by DNA later on in the charred wreckage.

The POD is that the compound was fortified more heavily than the Americans thought. This could be just because Al-Qaeda chose that day to throw a party/gun show at the compound and knock out the choppers with stinger missiles, or just overwhelm the team upon arrival. Drones would be more of a problem. I could maybe see them still getting shot down by heat seeking missiles if they weren't careful.

Having Osama not be there would be another good POD. After having the attack end in disaster, just to get a video from Osama B. saying that they got the 'wrong house' would be humiliating for them.
 
More realistically, US intelligence screws up and Bin Laden simply isn’t there; when the raid commenced there wasn’t more than a 50/50 chance that he really was living there.

Throw in their actions getting the attention of the nearby Pakistani military academy and you've got Navy SEALs under seige in the very compound they're meant to assault. There was always the factor that the uninformed Pakistanis would not take well having foreign special forces on their soil, who were acting on dodgy intellgence and decided not to tell you that their target is right next to a military location.
 
The POD is that the compound was fortified more heavily than the Americans thought. This could be just because Al-Qaeda chose that day to throw a party/gun show at the compound and knock out the choppers with stinger missiles, or just overwhelm the team upon arrival.
Okay, if half the team are killed, and there are twice as many people in the compound as expected, with all of the extra being militants, then they're still outnumbered by more than a third (39 Seals to presumably 27 militants, not counting children or wives), so the result will be the same, overall, but more bloody. There's going to be more political trouble for the US later though.

Drones would be more of a problem. I could maybe see them still getting shot down by heat seeking missiles if they weren't careful.
You have to find them first, and I'm pretty sure that no matter what Osama is packing in that compound, it isn't going to include radar.
 
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Narnia

Banned
Okay, if half the team are killed, and there are twice as many people in the compound as expected, with all of the extra being militants, then they're still outnumbered by more than a third (39 Seals to presumably 27 militants, not counting children or wives), so the result will be the same, overall, but more bloody. There's going to be more political trouble for the US though.

I said that the POD is that more armed militants are at the compound than in OTL.
 
What about an even greater fuck-up?


The SEALs go in, don't find Osama. The Blackhawk is damaged like in the OTL, when the SEALs prepare to leave, the Pakistany Army intervenes, pinning down the SEALs. The some crazy Pakistani starts shooting at the SEALs, wounding a couple of them and the SEALs return fire.

Surely Pakistani conscripts are not match for SEALs, but what if they brought in heavy equipment? Would the USAF intervene bombing the Pakistanis?
 

Narnia

Banned
What about an even greater fuck-up?


The SEALs go in, don't find Osama. The Blackhawk is damaged like in the OTL, when the SEALs prepare to leave, the Pakistany Army intervenes, pinning down the SEALs. The some crazy Pakistani starts shooting at the SEALs, wounding a couple of them and the SEALs return fire.

Surely Pakistani conscripts are not match for SEALs, but what if they brought in heavy equipment? Would the USAF intervene bombing the Pakistanis?

That's a good idea for how things could go bad. Having the SEALS attack the wrong house, then get in a skirmish the Pakistani army would cause some serious issues. Maybe even a war. How would the American public react to that?
 
I said that the POD is that more armed militants are at the compound than in OTL.
There were a total of 5 militants at the compound if you doubled the number of people at the compound (22) and all the new additions were militants, and then whacked half the Seal team, the defenders would still be outnumbered (39 Seals vs 27 militants).
 

Narnia

Banned
There were a total of 5 militants at the compound if you doubled the number of people at the compound (22) and all the new additions were militants, and then whacked half the Seal team, the defenders would still be outnumbered (39 Seals vs 27 militants).

I said they were having a gathering at the time as part of the POD, so it could be way more than doubled. If Osama was not there, but the house was a bunker for some Pakistani Al-Qaeda members the place could be filled with many more armed terrorists.
 
So you triple it, bringing the total number of militants to 49, vs. 39 Seals, that's still pretty even, given that the Militants will start off with the disadvantage of not being able to see in the dark. You also have to ask exactly how all these militants managed to gather without the CIA noticing.
 
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