WI Ortega allows the annexation of Nicaragua as an SSR

AsGryffynn

Banned
This may border on ASB territory, but it was something I wanted to discuss anyways. What if during the war with the Contras and after seeing the US undermining their harbors, Daniel Ortega, in dire straits, ask the USSR to invade Nicaragua to dispose of the Contra?

Could this have led to eventual annexation?
 

pwarner328

AsGryffynn said:
This may border on ASB territory, but it was something I wanted to discuss anyways. What if during the war with the Contras and after seeing the US undermining their harbors, Daniel Ortega, in dire straits, ask the USSR to invade Nicaragua to dispose of the Contra?

Could this have led to eventual annexation?
Click to expand...

I dont see the US standing for it. Flagrant violation of the Monroe Doctrine
 

Lycaon pictus

Donor
must not be sarcastic jerk… must not be sarcastic jerk… must not be sarcastic jerk…

The Soviets would never have agreed to this. They were already entangled in Afghanistan, which was right on their borders. The last thing they wanted was another quagmire.

Also, they wouldn't want a replay of the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Also, they wouldn't want to be seen taking orders from a small fry like Ortega.

This is assuming Ortega would have done this in the first place, which he wouldn't.
 
Maeglin

Maeglin

The Soviets would have turned him down. Afghanistan was bad enough - this is the other side of the planet. Besides, this would be to intrude on the US's sphere of influence.
 

AsGryffynn

Banned
Maeglin said:
The Soviets would have turned him down. Afghanistan was bad enough - this is the other side of the planet. Besides, this would be to intrude on the US's sphere of influence.
Click to expand...

Fair enough. But I was wondering how the US would react to an invitation from a democratically elect leader that is supported by the majority of the population. Would they keep up with the self servicing, or let them in?
 

Falecius

CalBear said:
Annexation?

No.

Global Thermonuclear War?

Probably.
Click to expand...

This.
Of course, in the very unlikely event that the Soviets agree to such a proposal. As far as I know, I don't think that they ever had any particular interest in propping up the Sandinistas.
 

Falecius

AsGryffynn said:
Fair enough. But I was wondering how the US would react to an invitation from a democratically elect leader that is supported by the majority of the population. Would they keep up with the self servicing, or let them in?
Click to expand...

As CalBear pointed out, in that context the US would care zilch for the "democratically elected" bit (indeed, they couldn't care less for the wishes of the Nicaraguans or the sovereign rights of the Nicaraguan state IOTL, and they showed that very thoroughly). Inviting Soviet troops in the Western Hemisphere mainland would have met with extremely strong American reaction regardless of the popular support and legitimacy of the government, a reaction veri likely to be measured in megatons.
Significant Soviet forces in the area would have been seen as an existential threat to the US to be terminated with extreme prejudice sooner than now.
A hypotetical Soviet SSR in any point of the North American continent has small chance to last full 24 hours before starting glowing in the dark beneath the radioactive ashes.
 
NHBL

NHBL

Why is everyone nuke-happy

I frequently see people expecting a resort to nuclear weapons far sooner than seems reasonable to me. An invasion such as this would NOT be allowed to happen--or to stand if it did. But nuclear weapons should not be needed. The invasion force is intercepted in the Atlantic and warned off. If it doesn't back off, it gets stopped by conventional weapons. Nuclear weapons are a response to an existential threat that can't be dealt with any other way--the last resort.

Nicaragua gets a new government in a hurry after that...
 

Realpolitik

Banned
I don't think the Soviets would be that stupid.

And if Ortega makes the proposal, you bet your ass Reagan is going to step up "covert action". His days will be numbered.
 

AsGryffynn

Banned
Falecius said:
As CalBear pointed out, in that context the US would care zilch for the "democratically elected" bit (indeed, they couldn't care less for the wishes of the Nicaraguans or the sovereign rights of the Nicaraguan state IOTL, and they showed that very thoroughly). Inviting Soviet troops in the Western Hemisphere mainland would have met with extremely strong American reaction regardless of the popular support and legitimacy of the government, a reaction veri likely to be measured in megatons.
Significant Soviet forces in the area would have been seen as an existential threat to the US to be terminated with extreme prejudice sooner than now.
A hypotetical Soviet SSR in any point of the North American continent has small chance to last full 24 hours before starting glowing in the dark beneath the radioactive ashes.
Click to expand...

And the international response would be?
 

AsGryffynn

Banned
Realpolitik said:
I don't think the Soviets would be that stupid.

And if Ortega makes the proposal, you bet your ass Reagan is going to step up "covert action". His days will be numbered.
Click to expand...

Alright, let's get down to business. How badly can the US get hurt by doing this?
 

Realpolitik

Banned
AsGryffynn said:
Alright, let's get down to business. How badly can the US get hurt by doing this?
Click to expand...


My prediction if Ortega were to make the proposal would be that Moscow turns it down, publicly. They aren't going to get into another Cuban Missile Crisis for the sake of Ortega. They've got enough problems in Poland and Afghanistan. They don't need to be ripping up the Monroe Doctrine, given what has happened to people friendly with them in the hemisphere. Another SSR? Good grief! They didn't even do that in Europe outside of the Baltic States. Especially if this is 1983 or later, and Reagan is in power and holding extreme popularity in the US. Red Dawn and the like...

Another SSR is going to go down differently in the world than a socialist government.

And as for Nicaragua, the US will simply repeat a common scenario in the hemisphere. There are plenty of suitable landowners/army guys that would be happy and willing and many of the other right wing guys in the region do not suffer any Castro types. The SUGGESTION of a Castro was enough for many in the military in Latin and South American countries. No more fooling around with the Contras, it'll be a full blown coup, or perhaps even an invasion. Any fool in Congress defending the Boland Amendment is voted out in 1984.
 

HonestAbe

The Soviets say "Oh Hell no." And the U.S. has Ortega replaced wether via covert action or invasion. Everyone quietly forgets this embarrassing incident until the Bush era anti-war protests where it shows up on the many "lists of places America has bombed".
 

Realpolitik

Banned
Oh, and in tandem with a thread of mine, Reagan gets support because of this. He wins all 50 states. :rolleyes:

Iran-Contra is butterflied. Expect him to get a lot more leeway on supporting guerillas in general after the SSR nonsense.
 
Last edited:

CDurham

When does this request happen?

Because if was before November 10, 1982 we could have Brezhnev literally die of laughter after reading Ortega's request.

I wonder what the headline in Pravda would say?
 

Realpolitik

Banned
It would probably say it was a stroke or something. This wouldn't be publicized in the USSR.

If it's during his rule, Andropov would not be pleased in the least that Ortega was asking for something so outrageous.
 

zoomar

The USSR would decline the offer and the USA would probably invade. Any move by a central american nation to become part of a hostile non-american power would invite immediate and direct US intervention. Cuba, at least, remained an independent nation.
 

Falecius

NHBL said:
I frequently see people expecting a resort to nuclear weapons far sooner than seems reasonable to me. An invasion such as this would NOT be allowed to happen--or to stand if it did. But nuclear weapons should not be needed. The invasion force is intercepted in the Atlantic and warned off. If it doesn't back off, it gets stopped by conventional weapons. Nuclear weapons are a response to an existential threat that can't be dealt with any other way--the last resort.

Nicaragua gets a new government in a hurry after that...
Click to expand...

I agree that nukes are the last resort - but a resort I can see the US to be willing to make use in that context. A Nicaraguan SSR is an existential threat in the US perspective of the time. If they think they have no other ways, they'll use nukes.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top