Let's say that Argentina doesn't cancel its planned invasion of Chile (maybe Pope John Paul II is unable to get involved for whatever reason) and open war between the two countries begins in December 1978. What would happen, and what consequences would a "Beagle War" have?
WI: Operation Soberanía Leads to War
- Thread starter Mort the Reaper
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Alright, I'm pretty sure you're joking, but I think I might as well explain anyway for the benefit of other people who might see this thread and not know what I'm talking about.
The Beagle Conflict was a border dispute between Argentina and Chile over the possession of three islands in the Beagle Channel. In 1977, a Court of Arbitration determined that the islands were Chilean territory. Argentina's government rejected the court's ruling, which led both countries to the verge of war. An Argentine invasion of Chile was planned, and it started on December 22, 1978, only to stop a few hours later when Pope John Paul II offered to mediate the conflict. This thread's scenario is that the invasion proceeds and starts a war.
Yes I was joking but thanks for the overall explanation. I knew some of the basics but not a lot of the details. Not sure who would win but it sounds like it would have been ugly. Does this make the 1982 Falklands conflict more or less likely? I can see arguments either way.
Argentina, which also had superior armed forces in all three services, at least on paper. At that point, Chile's armed forces had been hurt quite a bit by American sanctions and Argentina's not so much.
Far less likely. Even if no other countries get involved (let's say Peru and Bolivia see weakness in Chile and decide to join) it would have been a bloodbath. Whatever the outcome, Argentina wouldn't emerge in any shape to start any other war in the near future.
I doubt Bolivia or Peru will join as this war will likely be localized around the beagle straits with the winner being whoever can gain Naval and Air dominance
Well depends, Argentina have an aircraft Carrier, but don't really have a Good combined Fleet compositión, they lacked Light and scout ships, The Chilean Navy was smaller but better balanced and longer naval tradition.
plus the Aegemtineans Will have to invade an entreched Chilean Army that was operating With shorter supply línes and closer to their logística supply points.
The Argentina Junta have a shaker control of the country than The Chilean one, The saber rattle was doing by Argentina as a way to augment The Junta's popularity.
Overall we Will see a long conflict that Argentina should win, but Could not because of The impopular of the conflict and The shakier standing of the Junta, Argentina need a short Victorious war, Chile Is ready, and aim, to figth a long draged conflict
Carter enacted sanctions as well, and Chile got hit harder by them than Argentina
No, it would have been a generalized war all across the Argentina-Chile border
Because those were The war plans create by The Argentina Military, their aim was to Cross The Andes, easier Said than done, and cut The Chilean country, and logístic Train, in several points so they could bring their superior numbers over The smaller Chilean military, and defeat them in detail.
As example Chilean Capital, Santiago, Is barely 150 kilómeters ( two to three hour-ish) to The principal andes pass, Los Libertadores. Chile lacks strategical deep, and Argentina's military aim was exploit that weakness
If those plans fails they might op to go on the defensive in the Andes and focus all their effort south.
Yeah sure, but they have to fail first and the Argentinean army was prepared to carry those plans in case of war. So The most probable path of actions by Argentina in case of war Is Try to forcé The Andes in several pass and to cut The Magellan strait With their Navy
I'm not sure that would go very well. Trying to attack an enemy position in mountainous terrain is notoriously difficult, and while the Chilean Army was smaller and probably less well-equipped than its Argentine counterpart, it was also more professional.
Yeah, but no one ever accused The Argentinean Army to be competent
Ain't that the truth. I don't think the Argentines could win in the Andes without huge losses.
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I found this on the net...seems like a mashup of stories, and very similar to one that has been deleted in this forum by his owner long time ago..."fuego en el magallanes" . It's in spanish...
universosmultiversosparalelos.blogspot.com
FICCION: La Guerra del Beagle (1978-79)
Universos paralelos, mundos paralelos, multiversos, Argentina, conflicto del beagle, guerra del beagle 1978, beagle chile, beagle argentina
universosmultiversosparalelos.blogspot.com
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While, I agree with you about that given that both armies had been preparing/training/Wargaming for this kind of conflict... It, surely would have had been a long and bloody war for both Armies/Nations. Specially for the Argentinian army, which 'd have to face, a ready and entrenched enemy that 'd be defending to blood and fire their Fatherland...
But, on the other hand, I think that (as the Falklands/Malvinas war showed) you could underestimate the power of a totally controlled Mass Media. Also, from the more than foreseeable use in a publicity campaign, (as IOTL) of celebrities, TV hosts and journalists (many of them subservient) with the Military government... Also, I think that 'd be probably their utilization for creating and stimulate a widespread Nationalist/Patriotic fervor (or in this case, I'd say, chauvinistic one) against the enemy (Chileans) while presenting the conflict as a Just one... Then, I'd say that it could become, at least initially, in a rather popular war...
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