WI: Operation Plan II realistically happened

I never expected this plan to work, I just want to know what would've happened if it was launched.
I do imagine it would go down in history as one of the absolute worst military decisions ever.

Well, in that case, my take on it would be that the US would learn about it a few days after the fleet's departure. It's simply too large to be ignored or avoided. So the US would have about 3 weeks to prepare.

The Royal Navy would as well notice this, and would also prepare their own defenses in the new world. After all, there's no definitive target.

Both the US and the UK would summon the German Ambassadors, and both would be unable to provide a satisfactory answer. Either the Ambassadors deliver a declaration of war, spoiling the surprise, or they insist that this is merely a German Fleet exercise and demonstration and no need to worry, or they immediately request asylum as the Emperor is a madman who won't listen to reason.

Either way, the US and Great Britain both know something is up, so independently both will begin buffering their forces. Coastal forts across the Eastern Seaboard receive a flurry of effort to bring them back to modern standards. Thankfully, this already occurred a few years prior with fears of Spanish invasion, so the forts are in better shape than they might otherwise be. That's also determined if the US has a good idea of where the attack is going to be located. If it is known, then they can intensively fortify and bring artillery in to prepare for a landing in the Northeast. If not, they'll defend that region more than others, but the entire seaboard will be locked down, which means that some men and material would be diverted.

Secondly, the US and Royal Navies will be recalled to local positions in order to oppose the landings. They're not likely going to coordinate, but at the very least, both will have significant presence in the area. The US will try to combine into a single fleet to oppose the landings, again, depending upon the amount of time and whether they are aware of the location of the landing sites.

Either way, the US fleet will make a serious dent in the German vessels once it becomes clear a state of war exists and, more importantly, will likely damage some of the troop ships. Combine that with any bombardment done by ground-based batteries and torpedo attacks (especially nighttime/dusk/dawn raids), then it wouldn't be unlikely that a sizable amount of those troops never even set foot on the beaches, much less make it up unopposed.

Then there is the problem of where German vessels are to retire to when they are damaged and low on supplies. There isn't a single major port in North America that would take them in. At best, a heavily damaged ship in danger of sinking would either have to scuttle or risk making a run to a friendly neutral or, even, simply surrender and head to a US port, where the vessel would be taken as a prize and the crew impounded.

On top of all of that, the troops that make it ashore, assuming they make it past the beaches, will have taken heavy casualties and expended a ton of ammo. The only reason they're not overrun by a larger, less experienced and trained force is because they are under the careful eyes of their navy, which is dwindling by the day.

That's not to mention that the German ships can't even make it back! The Brandenburgs only had a range of 5200 miles. From Kiel to Boston, as the crow flies, it's about 3600 miles. Combine that with not being able to sail through England, along with maneuvers to avoid patrols, and it likely rises to 4000 miles. (Compare the older predreadnoughts, which only had a range of 1600 nmi or so.) There are going to be a ton of ships packed with coal on top, and even then, the HSF might not be able to make it to the Eastern Seaboard with a large portion of its fleet. That's an immediate strike against its power. At best, I imagine they were thinking the US would surrender, they'd get coal from the East Coast, and sail away? That isn't going to work.

So the troops can't even retreat to the sea, as none of the ships they came on have enough fuel to make it home. So, once it becomes clear that they can't break out and have taken excessive casualties, they will have to surrender. Some of the HSF might make it away and flee to neutral ports, or try, but I don't see how they manage to leave at all. And, in the process, New York and Massachusetts are heavily damaged, but not beyond repair, and the US have many, many PoWs with which they can bargain with the German Empire.

In the end, the German Empire can't repeat this, and the US is not going to launch a counterattack, so the US will try to extract as many concessions as it can for the return of whatever PoWs are left. Any German warships captured will likely be retained as compensation for American vessels sunk. All of Samoa likely goes to the US. Maybe the Marshall Islands will as well. But, more importantly, the US has been inexorably driven into the British camp, and the Germans lose a major component of their power projection abilities.

This is, of course, assuming that the British don't intercept the fleet and prevent it from landing in the first place.
 
WI the Germans have plot armor, the US army has Star Wars Stormtrooper accuracy, and the German Empire somehow wins and conquer the US through the use of an Improbability Drive from a faraway galaxy? What kind of puppet government do they install?

Thus did @Achaemenid Rome post the most plausible method for a successful invasion of America from Europe with a post 1900 POD, and lo, the board was happy and it was a good time, and did @CalBear put away the Banhammer and the land was at peace.
 

BooNZ

Banned
Yes, and the first I ever read it I found myself scoffing mightily. The second time I read it my lip curled a great deal. Ludicrous. No-one thought to send a telegram to Washington? The Royal Navy does nothing?
You read the book twice?
 
Was it really called Operation Plan II?

So that's at least twice (and I think I saw a third here somewhere?) that Wilhelm couldn't come up with another name at all apart from that?

Was he 30-yr Undisputed Champion Least Imaginative Monarch?

Apparently he originally wanted to call it Fall Grabraub but the plan's financiers felt the name was sacrilegious.
 

BooNZ

Banned
I'm not a believer that "super-Americanism" will conquer any enemy any way any time. However, plans like Plan II, or the Japanese attack in WWII, the German DoW in WWII, and the 9/11 attack a plan that is based on "the Americans are weak, morally corrupt, etc and will fold when you kick them hard" has been shown not to be a winning concept. This is not particular to plans against the USA, other plans like "shock and awe" fail in the opposite direction.
Arguably the US response(s) to the above ultimately undermined US's global influence/ credibility and economy, which may have been its purpose.

The Royal Navy would as well notice this, and would also prepare their own defenses in the new world. After all, there's no definitive target.
I would assume the scenario would have the British and the Germans as best of chums, otherwise a German decision to execute a cross Atlantic invasion would be completely ASB material - IMHO.
 

Deleted member 94680

That's not to mention that the German ships can't even make it back! The Brandenburgs only had a range of 5200 miles. From Kiel to Boston, as the crow flies, it's about 3600 miles. Combine that with not being able to sail through England, along with maneuvers to avoid patrols, and it likely rises to 4000 miles. (Compare the older predreadnoughts, which only had a range of 1600 nmi or so.) There are going to be a ton of ships packed with coal on top, and even then, the HSF might not be able to make it to the Eastern Seaboard with a large portion of its fleet. That's an immediate strike against its power. At best, I imagine they were thinking the US would surrender, they'd get coal from the East Coast, and sail away? That isn't going to work.

I believe the “Plan” called for 75,000 tonnes of coal to be brought with the fleet.
 
The Brandenburgs only had a range of 5200 miles. From Kiel to Boston, as the crow flies, it's about 3600 miles. Combine that with not being able to sail through England, along with maneuvers to avoid patrols, and it likely rises to 4000 miles

Some of the HSF might make it away and flee to neutral ports

What neutral ports? I suppose they could TRY to make it to the Caribbean and find a French/Dutch/Spanish island that was willing to take them in. Otherwise you're looking at recrossing the Atlantic. While Lisbon, say, is surely closer than Bremen, is it ENOUGH closer, and how would the HSF ships even know who was neutral and who not?

Radio is in its infancy, I don't know if ANY HSF ships had radio (probably some did), but even if they did, could they actually receive commands from Germany? And could German HQ receive answers back.

Edit: I just realized the first transatlantic radio signal was December of 1901, so, no the HSF isn't getting any orders from HQ or information. They're all on their lonesome and would have to guess who might possibly be neutral. Based on the same diplomatic optimism that had the operation put in place in the first place!!!
 
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Wasn't this time period the heyday of British "Invasion Literature". which was the fear of a German invasion of England? I imagine that the first response of the Admiralty to finding out that a massive German fleet is supposedly sailing to New York City is going to be, "What kind of fools do they think we are?" and order the Home Fleet to Action Stations immediately.
 

Deleted member 94680

Wasn't this time period the heyday of British "Invasion Literature". which was the fear of a German invasion of England? I imagine that the first response of the Admiralty to finding out that a massive German fleet is supposedly sailing to New York City is going to be, "What kind of fools do they think we are?" and order the Home Fleet to Action Stations immediately.

Then the Home Fleet shadows the Germans across the Atlantic, removing the element of surprise they require.
 
I would assume the scenario would have the British and the Germans as best of chums, otherwise a German decision to execute a cross Atlantic invasion would be completely ASB material - IMHO.

I'm curious how the two would be best of chums when the Germans are also trying to match the Royal Navy in size and capabilities.

I believe the “Plan” called for 75,000 tonnes of coal to be brought with the fleet.

I know US warships of the time often had to stack the decks tall to make some long voyages. It'll be difficult to bombard the enemy when there are mountains of coal everywhere on the deck.

And... let's look at logistics. I think the average fuel consumption of the larger warships was 8-12 tons of coal per hour. There are... What, 50 warships that the Germans were to bring with them? Certainly they all weren't so large and necessitating that much, but let's take that lower number as an upper limit. In the end, 8 tons of coal per hour per ship.

Which, in a twentyfour hour period, comes to 9600 tons of coal. Divide that into 75,000, and you get a nice 7.8125 days of operation. With that, the Germans have just over a WEEK to conduct their operations, if that is all surplus coal.

Ah, but they don't all don't run at that level at all times. Let's be generous and assume that they need half that coal, since they're only station keeping and chasing raiders. Let's also assume that the upper limit is 6 tons of coal per hour, to account for the many smaller vessels. So, in a sense, we're down to 3 tons of coal per hour per ship. (as they won't have to operate at flank the majority of the time).

Even then, they're just shy of three weeks of operation (20 days and 20 hours, specifically) with round numbers. That's about as generous as I could conceive that the coal reserves could be in that time period for combat operations.

What neutral ports?

Exactly. They would try to limp away, but there's really nowhere to flee towards. I imagine, more likely, a few prizes would be taken.
 
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Presumably, given the timeframe, the Venezuelan crisis of 1902–03 would be the cause of conflict. In which case, a very generous interpretation could see the RN stand neutral and everyone would assume the TransAtlantic convoy was heading towards Venezuela. After that, of course, I've got nothing that could stop it being a disaster.
 

Deleted member 94680

I know US warships of the time often had to stack the decks tall to make some long voyages. It'll be difficult to bombard the enemy when there are mountains of coal everywhere on the deck.

And... let's look at logistics. I think the average fuel consumption of the larger warships was 8-12 tons of coal per hour. There are... What, 50 warships that the Germans were to bring with them? Certainly they all weren't so large and necessitating that much, but let's take that lower number as an upper limit. In the end, 8 tons of coal per hour per ship.

Which, in a twentyfour hour period, comes to 9600 tons of coal. Divide that into 75,000, and you get a nice 7.8125 days of operation. With that, the Germans have just over a WEEK to conduct their operations, if that is all surplus coal.

Ah, but they don't all don't run at that level at all times. Let's be generous and assume that they need half that coal, since they're only station keeping and chasing raiders. Let's also assume that the upper limit is 6 tons of coal per hour, to account for the many smaller vessels. So, in a sense, we're down to 3 tons of coal per hour per ship. (as they won't have to operate at flank the majority of the time).

Even then, they're just shy of three weeks of operation (20 days and 20 hours, specifically) with round numbers. That's about as generous as I could conceive that the coal reserves could be in that time period for combat operations.

Warships of the era had coal reserves on board to allow several days of operation though, surely? From what I’ve read (only the wiki page - so if anyone has a better source, let me know) the 75,000 tonnes would be extra to the presumably full loads the ships would be setting off with. One assumes (but doesn’t know) that the coal would be carried in merchant ships as part of the IIRC sixty ship convoy the Germans would assemble. Given that they are merchantmen, one assumes they would be able to carry enough coal for themselves, without going into their ‘loaded coal’, to cross the Atlantic.
 

CalBear

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Presumably, given the timeframe, the Venezuelan crisis of 1902–03 would be the cause of conflict. In which case, a very generous interpretation could see the RN stand neutral and everyone would assume the TransAtlantic convoy was heading towards Venezuela. After that, of course, I've got nothing that could stop it being a disaster.
That was never the issue.

The issue was, quite simply, that the Kaiser wanted to get a "real" colonial empire. Specific to this scenario he wanted to detach Cuba and Puerto Rico from Spain, as the base points for acquiring other colonies in the Western Hemisphere. The U.S. was in the way. The goal was to knock the U.S. down a few pegs so the "Major Powers"(tm) could do as they wished in the Caribbean and South America without the U.S. using the Monroe Doctrine to interfere.

It was, again, idiotic. It was a "strategy" from the late 17th Century, not the very late 19th or early 20th Century, one that depended on the British (and French, Dutch, etc.) to just sit on their hands while Germany acquired "its rightful place in the Sun". Worse, it depended on a Imperial German Navy that was simply not up for the task. By the time there actually WAS a Germany as a unified nation state, the window for that sort of empire building was already closing. The British Empire had collected a vast array of possessions, the other long established colonial powers settling for the bits and pieces the British didn't already govern, leaving the German Empire mostly an empty bag. How Wilhlem II came to the conclusion that the idea was in any way achievable is beyond baffling.
 

CalBear

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Warships of the era had coal reserves on board to allow several days of operation though, surely? From what I’ve read (only the wiki page - so if anyone has a better source, let me know) the 75,000 tonnes would be extra to the presumably full loads the ships would be setting off with. One assumes (but doesn’t know) that the coal would be carried in merchant ships as part of the IIRC sixty ship convoy the Germans would assemble. Given that they are merchantmen, one assumes they would be able to carry enough coal for themselves, without going into their ‘loaded coal’, to cross the Atlantic.
There would be reserves on board, but warships burned coal at remarkable rates when under full steam. The Brandenberg class battleships had a range of 4,300 miles at 10 knots. Best course, which requires the fleet to leave from Bremen take the passage between Orkney and Shetlands (placing the entire force under direct observation of the RN Home Squadron) and then shape a course to North America (a course which passes within a couple hundred miles of Halifax) before reaching Cape Cod is ~4,000 miles while following Friedrich III class had a range, at 10 knots, of 3,400 miles. The fleet would have to coal, at sea (in the North Atlantic) in order to have enough coal to simply REACH the proposed landing sites.
 
I think the funniest thing out of all this is that Operation Plan III was crafted after I and II were derided as "unrealistic"

III recommended focusing all these invading forces strictly on Cape Cod.
 

BooNZ

Banned
I'm curious how the two would be best of chums when the Germans are also trying to match the Royal Navy in size and capabilities.

Up until at least 1902 German diplomacy was working on the assumption an Anglo-German alignment was inevitable. Given France and Russia had been British arch rivals for centuries and Prussia/Germany had been Britain's traditional friend and ally on the continent, it was not an unreasonable assumption.

At no point did the Germans seek to match the Royal navy size or capacity - that's not what the Tirpitz risk theory was about. Modern technology enabled the Germans to shortcut centuries of British naval tradition, but the Germans were still woefully inferior in terms of existing numbers, naval technology, ship building expertise, ship building capacity and financial resources. The completion of the British Dreadnaught temporarily reset the balance of naval power, but in the ensuing naval drag race, the British swiftly re-established its naval dominance.
 
That was never the issue.

The issue was, quite simply, that the Kaiser wanted to get a "real" colonial empire. Specific to this scenario he wanted to detach Cuba and Puerto Rico from Spain, as the base points for acquiring other colonies in the Western Hemisphere. The U.S. was in the way. The goal was to knock the U.S. down a few pegs so the "Major Powers"(tm) could do as they wished in the Caribbean and South America without the U.S. using the Monroe Doctrine to interfere.

It was, again, idiotic. It was a "strategy" from the late 17th Century, not the very late 19th or early 20th Century, one that depended on the British (and French, Dutch, etc.) to just sit on their hands while Germany acquired "its rightful place in the Sun". Worse, it depended on a Imperial German Navy that was simply not up for the task. By the time there actually WAS a Germany as a unified nation state, the window for that sort of empire building was already closing. The British Empire had collected a vast array of possessions, the other long established colonial powers settling for the bits and pieces the British didn't already govern, leaving the German Empire mostly an empty bag. How Wilhlem II came to the conclusion that the idea was in any way achievable is beyond baffling.

Of course.
If I'd said "excuse" rather than "cause", that might have been closer to my original meaning. I'd also considered "casus belli".

*Edit* after 24hrs, I realise that the word I was looking for was probably "trigger". Some days, I should just not write anything.
 
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