WI: Operation Pike carried out, drives USSR to Axis

Let's say the British and French carry out Operation Pike and bomb Baku's oil fields, driving the USSR into the Axis with a Berlin-Rome-Moscow-Tokyo Axis being forged under a "Quadratic Pact". How does WW2 develop with an Axis USSR? Could we see this "Axis of Evil" defeat the Allies? Also, could we see Stalin carry out something akin to the planned "Doctor's Plot" purge to seal his alliance with the Nazis?
 
If the USSR joins Germany as more than a Co-Belligerent , I think you might see the Moose split off from the Axis if this happens before France is attacked in May, seeing that alliance as a betrayal of the Anti-Comintern Pact
 
Maybe, or maybe not.

Benny REALLY wanted his New Roman Empire. And he would not pass up an occasion to steal British and French colonies, nor to acquire Savoy, Nice and Corsica.

Not when France starts to fall and Britain is in dire straits (having to protect Persia and India against Soviets, while facing Soviet Red Army AND Luftwaffe at home).

Benny will also realize that the "alliance" was forced by circumstance and that Germany will likely backstab the SU later.
 
As France Falls, and the Moose is on record as being unhappy, I'd see the UK trying for a deal with him. A hostile USSR really can't project power anywhere in 1940, and would keep supplying Hitler anyway, as OTL.
 

Deleted member 1487

A lot depends on what concessions Stalin makes to Hitler to seal a pact, IOTL they couldn't agree on number of issues during the Soviet-German Axis talks and it actually convinced Hitler he couldn't trust Stalin and needed war to deal with him. I'm guessing they probably end up as co-belligerents, with the Soviets launching an invasion of the Middle East to capture the bomber bases in Iraq and Syria, which means invading Iran and Turkey first. They may well bog down and Hitler might not want to completely drive off Turkey into the British camp, so plays a double game wherein he can sell them military equipment and whatnot to get them to sell him chromium and whatnot. The thing is if Pike happens before the German invasion of France, which is what OP is suggesting, as he mentioned France was involved, then France is knocked out of the effort and Syria neutralized as part of the bombing campaign in June, which may get Stalin to back out of Turkey and focus on Iran, or, depending on the time tables of the Soviet invasion of the Middle East and when the bombing starts, then he just invades Iran and leaves Turkey alone. Regardless the Brits are really tied down fighting the Soviets, so they may pull out of Norway even sooner and probably opt to withdraw from the war in Summer 1940 when France Falls. Having to fight the Germans in occupied Europe, plus having to fight the Soviets in the Empire, and the Italians in the Mediterranean is just too much, so fighting on wouldn't really be an option. I'm thinking the war ends in July as the Brits scramble to deal with all the threats at once and try to avoid invasion and rebuild the BEF. So the 1939-40 war ends in less than 12 months with the Nazis masters of Europe. Then in 1941 I think we see Barbarossa happening and Britain none too willing to help Stalin.
 
could this lead to a situation where things calm down for germany, but the soviets are continuing to fight a attrition war in the far east?
Meanwhile the nazis will use the lull in hostilities to continue re-arming preparing for barbarossa, which means they will come better prepared than otl
 

NoMommsen

Donor
If the USSR joins Germany as more than a Co-Belligerent , I think you might see the Moose split off from the Axis if this happens before France is attacked in May, seeing that alliance as a betrayal of the Anti-Comintern Pact
I think the time window would be too small for this to happen. It would take Benny quite some time to
first : make up his mind, as Italy ATM is heavily dependent on german ... coal deliveries ;-)
second : then manage a 'contact' with the Wallies without being caught by Hitler/Canaris/Heydrich
third : make that deal, as he would still request a damn awfull lot from the wallies,
such negotiations need time.

... IMO more than the wallies would have for before Hitler invades the low lands, from what point Benny would do as OTL : sit, watch the show and wait who wins.
 
I think the time window would be too small for this to happen. It would take Benny quite some time to
first : make up his mind, as Italy ATM is heavily dependent on german ... coal deliveries ;-)
second : then manage a 'contact' with the Wallies without being caught by Hitler/Canaris/Heydrich
third : make that deal, as he would still request a damn awfull lot from the wallies,
such negotiations need time.

... IMO more than the wallies would have for before Hitler invades the low lands, from what point Benny would do as OTL : sit, watch the show and wait who wins.

Nazi Counter-Intelligence was really, really poor, and that was in occupied countries. Italy is Neutral.

If the Med stays open, the UK can probably give a better price per ton on Coal than the Germans, who overcharged for everything to their Allies. UK is used to using Guineas to break windows when it came to economics, see purchases from Spain during the war, and Italy is much more useful.

Timing is everything, Pike would need to go off sooner that OTLs French/UK planning on that raid.

If that raid does go off, Baku will be wrecked for some time.
Hard for Oil sales to Germany to continue
 

Deleted member 1487

Nazi Counter-Intelligence was really, really poor, and that was in occupied countries. Italy is Neutral.

If the Med stays open, the UK can probably give a better price per ton on Coal than the Germans, who overcharged for everything to their Allies. UK is used to using Guineas to break windows when it came to economics, see purchases from Spain during the war, and Italy is much more useful.

Timing is everything, Pike would need to go off sooner that OTLs French/UK planning on that raid.

If that raid does go off, Baku will be wrecked for some time.
Hard for Oil sales to Germany to continue
Baku was maybe 50% of Soviet oil, at least 30% wasn't produced in the Caucasus, and there is still Grozny and Maykop, plus central Russia around Ufa and opposite Baku on the other side of the Caspian sea. Even if every production facility in the Caucasus was wrecked beyond repair that still leaves 30-40% of Soviet oil production, which is still more than Soviet needs to run their military and civilian economy.
 

Deleted member 1487

Can we assume that such a raid would see Franco-British troops sent to help Finland?
How? They couldn't even win in Norway, which had to be successfully invaded to get to Finland via Sweden. The Brits will be bogged down in Iran and the Middle East now too, so getting to Finland will be even more of a pipe dream than IOTL.
 
As France Falls, and the Moose is on record as being unhappy, I'd see the UK trying for a deal with him. A hostile USSR really can't project power anywhere in 1940, and would keep supplying Hitler anyway, as OTL.

Japan wasn't in yet, in fact hostile to USSR, there was probably more chance of deal there? (than with Italy)
 
Let's say the British and French carry out Operation Pike and bomb Baku's oil fields, driving the USSR into the Axis with a Berlin-Rome-Moscow-Tokyo Axis being forged under a "Quadratic Pact". How does WW2 develop with an Axis USSR? Could we see this "Axis of Evil" defeat the Allies?

of course both sides had plots and detailed plans for EVERYTHING, so while Pike is widely discussed I've never been convinced it was ever more seriously considered than say, French plan to preemptively strike at Italy? (which actually seems to me better idea, an earlier and larger Taranto, and would pay more dividends than scratching at Soviets to no avail, as Wiking pointed out on their oil production.)
 
How? They couldn't even win in Norway, which had to be successfully invaded to get to Finland via Sweden. The Brits will be bogged down in Iran and the Middle East now too, so getting to Finland will be even more of a pipe dream than IOTL.

The Indian army alone could blunt an invasion into Iran. Meanwhile the 100 000 British and 35 000 French troops allocated to aiding Finland would be dispatched. If this occurs in February of 1940, Germany preparation for invading Norway is still incomplete while the Allied Taskforce is just waiting on the green light, so the Germans wouldn't be able to stop the intervention.

Just because the Brits are fighting in colonial theatres doesn't mean they are suddenly incapable of fighting in Europe. If the enemy is the Soviet Union, then the Brits will want to keep the Northern Front open as much as they want to keep the Iranian front open.
 

Deleted member 1487

The Indian army alone could blunt an invasion into Iran. Meanwhile the 100 000 British and 35 000 French troops allocated to aiding Finland would be dispatched. If this occurs in February of 1940, Germany preparation for invading Norway is still incomplete while the Allied Taskforce is just waiting on the green light, so the Germans wouldn't be able to stop the intervention.

Just because the Brits are fighting in colonial theatres doesn't mean they are suddenly incapable of fighting in Europe. If the enemy is the Soviet Union, then the Brits will want to keep the Northern Front open as much as they want to keep the Iranian front open.
In 1940 the Indian army was only about 200k men that was meant as an occupation force. It actually would not have been that effective at stopping the Soviets, considering it also had to help garrison India:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Army_during_World_War_II
The Indian Army started World War II underprepared and short of modern weapons and equipment.[4] It had not expected to be involved in any hostilities and had been advised after the outbreak of war in Europe, by the British government that it was unlikely to be required at all.[4] So it was with some surprise when the 4th Infantry and 5th Infantry divisions were requested to serve in the North African and East African Campaigns and four mule companies to join the British Expeditionary Force in France.[4]

IOTL the Allies dispatched to Norway were defeated, why would they do better than IOTL? Why would they move any earlier either? They needed time to get ready to deploy, plus ice in the North Sea and around Norway is a bit of an issue in February IIRC.
 
USSR driven to the Axis means that Hitler would have to accept them. Which he wouldn't. Not for longer than it would take to prepare for Barbarossa, anyway.

Biggest difference? USSR isn't an Ally against Germany, just a co-belligerent. No Lend-Lease, etc.
 
If Stalin is co-belligerant or fully allied Mussolini will not declare war, it will be politically impossible for him (better remember that he don't have the kind of power that Joe and Adolf enjoy), expecially if we add the situation of the italian armed forces and that more or less him and Stalin desire the same things in the Balkans.
Neutrality will be more or less the only option possible (except join the Wallies), expecially with Paris and London more pressed in keeping Rome neutral in this situation
 

NoMommsen

Donor
of course both sides had plots and detailed plans for EVERYTHING, so while Pike is widely discussed I've never been convinced it was ever more seriously considered than say, French plan to preemptively strike at Italy? (which actually seems to me better idea, an earlier and larger Taranto, and would pay more dividends than scratching at Soviets to no avail, as Wiking pointed out on their oil production.)
You've read at least the wiki-entry ?

Preparations for the air campaign
Analysis of the photography by the PDU revealed that the oil infrastructure in Baku and Batum were particularly vulnerable to air attack, as both could be approached from the sea, so the more difficult target of Grozny would be bombed first to exploit the element of surprise. Oil fields were to be attacked with incendiary bombs, while tests conducted at the Royal Arsenal at Woolwich, revealed that light oil storage tanks at the oil processing plants could be detonated with high explosives.


As of 1 April, four squadrons comprising 48 Bristol Blenheim Mk IV bombers were transferred to the Middle East Command, supplemented with a number of single-engined Wellesley bombers for night missions. A French force of 65 Martin Maryland bombers and a supplementary force of 24 Farman F.222 heavy bombers were allocated for night operations during the campaign. The French were preparing new air fields in Syria which were expected to be ready by 15 May. The campaign was expected to last three months and over 1,000 short tons (910 t) of ordnance was allocated to the operation: 404 500 lb (230 kg) semi-armour-piecing bombs, 554 500 lb (230 kg) and 5,188 250 lb (110 kg) general-purpose bombs and 69,192 4 lb (1.8 kg) incendiary bombs.[12]

Sounds like bit more than 'just' some contingency plan to me.
 
of course both sides had plots and detailed plans for EVERYTHING, so while Pike is widely discussed I've never been convinced it was ever more seriously considered than say, French plan to preemptively strike at Italy? (which actually seems to me better idea, an earlier and larger Taranto, and would pay more dividends than scratching at Soviets to no avail, as Wiking pointed out on their oil production.)

You've read at least the wiki-entry ?

Sounds like bit more than 'just' some contingency plan to me.

from Wiki also "Some scholars do not take the British plans of attack seriously and regard them as mere contingency plans" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Pike

not sure what it would take to tip scales and cause plan to go forward?
 
IMO it all ends with Churchill, once he becomes PM and France falls, cutting a deal with Stalin, as it would be in both their interests to do so. This will be before the Soviets had had the chance to launch any sort of attack into Turkey and/or Iran. Things go more or less OTL from there.

Other outcomes are also possible, but this one I believe is the most likely.
 
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