A lot depends on what concessions Stalin makes to Hitler to seal a pact, IOTL they couldn't agree on number of issues during the Soviet-German Axis talks and it actually convinced Hitler he couldn't trust Stalin and needed war to deal with him. I'm guessing they probably end up as co-belligerents, with the Soviets launching an invasion of the Middle East to capture the bomber bases in Iraq and Syria, which means invading Iran and Turkey first. They may well bog down and Hitler might not want to completely drive off Turkey into the British camp, so plays a double game wherein he can sell them military equipment and whatnot to get them to sell him chromium and whatnot. The thing is if Pike happens before the German invasion of France, which is what OP is suggesting, as he mentioned France was involved, then France is knocked out of the effort and Syria neutralized as part of the bombing campaign in June, which may get Stalin to back out of Turkey and focus on Iran, or, depending on the time tables of the Soviet invasion of the Middle East and when the bombing starts, then he just invades Iran and leaves Turkey alone. Regardless the Brits are really tied down fighting the Soviets, so they may pull out of Norway even sooner and probably opt to withdraw from the war in Summer 1940 when France Falls. Having to fight the Germans in occupied Europe, plus having to fight the Soviets in the Empire, and the Italians in the Mediterranean is just too much, so fighting on wouldn't really be an option. I'm thinking the war ends in July as the Brits scramble to deal with all the threats at once and try to avoid invasion and rebuild the BEF. So the 1939-40 war ends in less than 12 months with the Nazis masters of Europe. Then in 1941 I think we see Barbarossa happening and Britain none too willing to help Stalin.