WI Operation Long Jump Succeeds

Wallace seems unlikely to beat the Republicans in November 1944, so the final decisions regarding Germany and Japan are almost certainly going to be made by Dewey, who is far more likely to win ( he did win 45% of the vote as it is in OTL). Running against not FDR, I think he would certainly get that extra few percentage points

I believed Dewey would have used the bomb as Downfall was going to be horrendously costly no matter whose casualty estimates you look at

However, that probably means no United Nations, and it would cost us one of my favorite Presidents (Truman)

Of course this assumes that Wallace even gets the nomination. As he was viewed as far Left even in the Democratic Party (which is why he was dropped from the ticket) that is no certainty either

As to the Soviet Union... Stavka hated the NKVD (after all, many surviving generals had friends who got purged or were survivors of the Gulag themselves) and the chance to taint Beria (assuming he survived) would be overwhelming. My guess is that the same thing happens that happened when Stalin died in OTL. The Army sides with the Party and they purge the NKVD after eliminating Beria. Post war the Party rebuilds the NKVD as the Army gets too big for its britches (as it did in OTL in the 50s)

Of the three, the British actually have the most stable coalition in 1943
 
You forget, Zhukov was already acting as co-commander in chief by this point, meaning he commands the armed forces if Stalin's dead; that's why I said earlier that, as long as he doesn't try to take power for himself, he can prevent a power struggle in the Soviet government by backing one of the other contenders.

And if Beria is in hot water due to "suspicious security failures", then the NKVD is only going to be in less of a position to challenge such an arrangement.

Hmm,
At the time of Teheran, the Soviets are getting ready for their winter offensive after Kursk. D-Day and destruction army group center have not yet happened so I guess everybody is unwilling and unable to put eastern front on hold while soviets clean their house after Stalin.

To continue war SU absolutely must make sure that lend-lease continues, I further guess that this means that they must also present at least a nominally stable government for americans and the british. So heads of Red Army, NKVD and CP will postpone showdown until they can secure either end of war or allied material support. Zhukov of course is the commander of the army and Berija heads the NKVD, Malenkov is the central player for the Sovnarkom and State Defence Committee.

Thats why I'm guessing triumvirate/trojka which will last only until the war is decisively won or western allies back one of the candidates using lend-lease as leverage. After that all bets are off. Malenkov cannot stand Zhukov and everyone hates Berija.
 
Wallace seems unlikely to beat the Republicans in November 1944... Dewey, who is far more likely to win ( he did win 45% of the vote as it is in OTL). Running against not FDR, I think he would certainly get that extra few percentage points.
FDR beat Dewey by 7.5% OTL, or over 3.5 million votes; I just don't see the Democrats losing.
After that all bets are off. Malenkov cannot stand Zhukov and everyone hates Berija.
What about Molotov?
 
I think claims that Truman did this because he didn't want to share Japan with the Soviets are way overblown; the key motivations for dropping the bombs are still there TTL, and Wallace doesn't want Americans getting butchered in Operation Downfall anymore than Truman did. So yes, he drops it.

Yea i agree. Japan almost wasn't going to surrender after the two we dropped. They were definitely not surrendering before it. It was a wise move to prevent the million expected casualities.
 
Given how the Morgentheau Plan is essentially a blueprint of Genocide and the destruction of the concept of Germany, it's safe to say that we've changed a few things. Wallace was a bit more cautious about the USSR, more so then FDR, and with the idea of Germany as a territorial entity pretty much annihilated, we will see a bit more cooperation, assuming Breia isn't succeeded by an Anti-American die hard. On thing that will also be worth looking at is Japan- does Wallace drop the bomb, or does he launch Operation Downfall?

About total descruction of the concept of an united Germany I know, but genocide? Wasn't that just this absurd exaggeration of Theodor Kaufman, or did the Morgenthau Plan really involve killing the German people off?
 
Everyone in the Soviet leadership hated Beria and he completely lacked any political allies. Once Stalin croaks, he's a dead man. The Red Army, for all of the CPSU's fears of bonapartism, is on too much of a leash to even play kingmaker much less try to take the lead. If it comes down to a power struggle, it's going to be one within the Communist Party, not between the Party and the other organs of the Soviet State.

I should also observe that the Soviets solidly have their war effort under rather solid ground at this point, what with the Red Army steadily advancing, the economy stabilized, their best industrial regions liberated (if still pretty devastated), the administration for controlling all of it organized and in place, and lend-lease flowing in... so a party power-struggle won't at really affect the progress of the war like it would in 1941 or early-42.
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
About total descruction of the concept of an united Germany I know, but genocide? Wasn't that just this absurd exaggeration of Theodor Kaufman, or did the Morgenthau Plan really involve killing the German people off?

I make no hyperbole or exaggeration in saying that if the Morgenthau Plan was backed to the hilt, then it would have been among the most blatant and horrifying crimes against humanity ever enacted in human history.

The plan effectively calls for the complete destruction of the German state and its potential to wage Armed conflicts through gutting of German industry, be it through annexations or internationalized of major mining and industrial regions of Germany, and the destruction and dismantling of all heavy industry, with attempts to utilize what was left heavily restricted, aiming to reduce the German peoples living standard to what was referred to as a "Pastoral State". Herbert Hoover, talking about the plan and the effects of it's limited enactment following his tour of Germany to report of the conditions of occupied Germany, is quoted as saying: "There is the illusion that the New Germany left after the annexations can be reduced to a 'pastoral state'. It cannot be done unless we exterminate or move 25,000,000 people out of it." And Hoover is right; the complete de-industrialization of Germany combined with the strict food restrictions, atop the issues of German Agriculture being unable to support her large population, now hampered by the earth having been salted and most the labors dead, as well as the issues of food and economic aid in the immediate post-War period, would result in the mass starvation of tens of millions of people and the destruction the mere concept of Germany as a Nation through sheer death count.

So yes, the Morgenthau Plan would have been an act of Genocide if enacted as planned, and the millions of deaths would have been justified as for 'The greater good of humanity', a notion I find nightmarish and horrific.
 
What would be Hitler's reaction?

Would Hitler be more obsessed with breaking up the Allies? Would he now be really convinced that his troops can defeat the upcoming D-Day invasion? I would think he would be hoping history repeats itself and the Russians pull out of the war. As for the west would Hitler see Wallace and Eden as weak?
 
Actually Terhan was critical to the conduct of the war in the west. Churchill & Brooke came to it arguing for the W Allied main effort to be in the Mediterranean during 1944. He argued this aggresively until in the critical meeting of the three cheifs he found himself solidly opposed by the other two. Stalin made it clear he expected a major invasion in the west NLT summer 1944. Roosevelt made it clear he was fed up with delays. Witnesses describe Churchill as sullen, depressed, agitated during and after that three hour meeting, but ultimately agreeing. If the three cheifs are dead before this critical decision is made the a date for Op Overlord is not ordered, SHAEF is not established to take unified operational & stratigic control of the Allied forces in the UK, and Eisenhower or anyone else is not yet selected.

Bottom line is the Brit & US chiefs are going to have to hash out the core stratigic question before the W Allies have a clear direction for 1944. A lot here depends on if either Brooke or Marshal are killed or survive. If Brooke lives & Marshal is gone then there will still be a strong leader proposing the souther Mediterranean option for 1944 & a further postphonment of a western invasion. How Wallace or Marshals sucessor would deal wit this is difficult to guess.

If Brooke is dead & Marshal survives then it is far more likely Op Overlord will be set in motion. I dont know who would be the next CIGS, but if Dill were recalled, even temporarily he would have supported a 1944 invasion. What the others might have thought I cant say.

To digress slightly...
The Shingle Operation is butterflied away if Churchill is dead. When he passed through Alexanders HQ he was show a pile of staff studies on potiential operations. Op Shingle caught his eye & after some discussion of that and others Churchill ordered Alexander to proceed with it. No one else was overly ethusiastic. Clark who was stuck with the detail planning and overseeing the execution asked it be canceled. When Patton saw the plan he told Lucas trying to capture Rome was a "suicide mission". Alexander might have canceled but Churchill was all for it & nothing else would do. So, had Churchill been eliminated the Shingle Op probablly would have remained in that stack of staff studies.
 
I make no hyperbole or exaggeration in saying that if the Morgenthau Plan was backed to the hilt, then it would have been among the most blatant and horrifying crimes against humanity ever enacted in human history.

...

My impression has been the Morgenthau Plan was dismissed by most of the people who saw it 1943-45. It was a dead letter before the election of 1944.
 
Who makes the movie? Huston? Cameron? Spielberg?

Maybe Tarantino but the Allied leaders survive in his picture.
 
How much of the plan was dead? For example, could TTL still see Germany carved up further, broken up into multiple (more than two) states?

The original idea was for a joint occupation of all of Germany. Hard to call it a plan since it was based on a few discussions between the senior reps. & it was on the table beside the Churchill remark to Stalin about the Elbe being some sort of dividing line. Kliene-Albrandt suggested this was to the advantage of the USSR since it gave its organizations unfetterd acess to all of Germany. There were long term ideas floating around for splitting off multiple states. ie: Bavaria was proposed as a independant nation like Austria, or Prussia becoming a seperate nation.

The occupation zones as we know them originated with the French according to Kliene-Albrandt. Taking the long view they wanted in depth military control of their trans border region. As Soviet/Western tensions emerged in 1945 the USSR supported the French idea of multiple occupation zones against the arguments of the Brit & US representatives who argued for for a overall joint occupation.
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
My impression has been the Morgenthau Plan was dismissed by most of the people who saw it 1943-45. It was a dead letter before the election of 1944.

How much of the plan was dead? For example, could TTL still see Germany carved up further, broken up into multiple (more than two) states?

The Morgenthau Plan was implemented. However the reason I say "if it were backed to the hilt" is due to the fact what transpired IoTL was a more moderate version of the Plan. The division of Germany was, as we know, incorporated into the Plan for Germany, and you could get about Four-Seven Nations out of further division (East Germany, West Germany, Saar, Bavaria, Ruhr Vally, Rhineland). The official American Occupation directive, JCS 1067, sought to establish the 'Pastoral State', was the Plan in action, although as said a more moderate version of it, and allowed some industry and agriculture to remain (under the eyes of occupation troops, of course), although Mass Starvation still occurred- the quote from Hoover was his report in which he argued a change in official policy, as the people of Germany were starving to death. This moral issue, combined with the need to reindustrialize Germany, saw directive JCS 1067 abandoned in favor of JCS 1779.

In the scenario of a successful Long Jump, the idea of the Morgenthau Plan, or a derivative like JCS 1067, being backed to the hilt isn't impossible to imagine. It would be seen by those implementing as a necessary evil that should be inflicted upon the German People that will ensure the pacification of the remnants of the German state forever, and be seen by many ITTL as a just punishment for what the German people have done.
 
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