In 1972, Finnish writer Arto Paasilinna
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arto_Paasilinna
wrote a satirical novel, "Operaatio Finlandia" (Operation Finlandia), about a fictional war between Sweden and Finland. I read the book several years ago, but the idea is fascinating: how could this play out in the "real" (or ASB) world? I've fiddled with this idea of Paasilinna for about a week now...
This might actually be ASB stuff, because an actual war (with armies shooting each other, bombing raids etc.) between Sweden and Finland seems to be a pretty far-out possibility... Then again, MAYBE NOT - remember the Torino 2006 Olympics and the battle for the gold medal in ice hockey, with those damn Swedes turning the knife in the wound by mocking us... GrrrAUHHHH!
;-)
Paasilinna has an ultra-nationalist/right-wing/fascist group rising to power in Sweden and apparently trying to conquer back the long lost "Österland" of Sweden (= Finland). The Swedes occupy Åland and invade Finland in Turku and Vaasa areas. Brutal fighting breaks out. The Swedish air force even bomb a nuclear power plant in Finland, if I remember correctly. The Swedes have air superiority at the start of the war.
In the book it is still the 1970s, or "modern day" of that time, so the Soviet Union is still going strong. Now Finland had this infamous "Agreement of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance" with the SU.
Snippet from Wikipedia:
"Under the pact, Finland was obliged to resist armed attacks by "Germany or its allies" (in reality interpreted as the United States and allies) against Finland, or against the Soviet Union through Finland. If necessary, Finland was to ask for Soviet military aid to do so." (Wikipedia)
In the Paasilinna book, this agreement is somehow invoked and the SU gives material help (weapons and equipment) to Finland. With the Soviet help, Finland manages to stall the Swedish attack and even conquer Swedish Lapland all the way to Umeå (if I remember correctly). The Swedes lose their air superiority to the anti-aircraft systems the Soviets give to Finland (if I remember correctly).
Some time after this, there is a cease fire and peace. The war ends in an approximate tie, with no definite winner. Both sides retreat to pre-war borders.
///
How could this scenario play out in the modern (say, 2000-2006) world? Or, maybe even more interestingly, in 1990-1994 (right after the collapse of the SU, but before Finland and Sweden join the EU)...
How would the political situation play out?
Both Finland and Sweden are in the EU (if the war happens in 2000-2006, or any time post-1994). Neither of them belongs to NATO. There is no more "Agreement of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance" between Finland and modern Russia.
How could we get a fascist, aggressive, hostile-to-Finland, and obviously really irrational and screwed-up government in Sweden? Maybe some rabid neo-nazi group somehow gaining unprecedented popularity ("foreigners out of Sweden blah blah blah conquering back the Empire of Gustavus Adolphus blah blah blah...")?
How would the war play out with modern weaponry?
How would Russia behave? They would think of the protection of St. Petersburg. They might either help Finland (Finland as a buffer state against the aggressive, neo-imperialist, fascist Sweden) or invade as well (Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, Nazi-Germany, Soviet Union, Poland, 1939...). Although the latter would be an outright foreign-policy suicide for Russia (as a fascist government and an aggressive invasion of a neighbouring country would be to Sweden). The Russkies helping out Finland might be feasible (the best PR for them).
What would the UN, EU, NATO, US do? Condemn Sweden? Mediators/negotiations? Would NATO bomb Sweden (like Serbia 1999)? Material support (weapons/equipment) for Finland? Maybe voluntary troops/mercenaries (like in the Spanish Civil War)? Peace-keepers?
How would this war play out and how would it end? Either 2000-2006 time period or 1990-1994 time period.
Paasilinna also had a map of a sort. It looked something like this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arto_Paasilinna
wrote a satirical novel, "Operaatio Finlandia" (Operation Finlandia), about a fictional war between Sweden and Finland. I read the book several years ago, but the idea is fascinating: how could this play out in the "real" (or ASB) world? I've fiddled with this idea of Paasilinna for about a week now...
This might actually be ASB stuff, because an actual war (with armies shooting each other, bombing raids etc.) between Sweden and Finland seems to be a pretty far-out possibility... Then again, MAYBE NOT - remember the Torino 2006 Olympics and the battle for the gold medal in ice hockey, with those damn Swedes turning the knife in the wound by mocking us... GrrrAUHHHH!
;-)
Paasilinna has an ultra-nationalist/right-wing/fascist group rising to power in Sweden and apparently trying to conquer back the long lost "Österland" of Sweden (= Finland). The Swedes occupy Åland and invade Finland in Turku and Vaasa areas. Brutal fighting breaks out. The Swedish air force even bomb a nuclear power plant in Finland, if I remember correctly. The Swedes have air superiority at the start of the war.
In the book it is still the 1970s, or "modern day" of that time, so the Soviet Union is still going strong. Now Finland had this infamous "Agreement of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance" with the SU.
Snippet from Wikipedia:
"Under the pact, Finland was obliged to resist armed attacks by "Germany or its allies" (in reality interpreted as the United States and allies) against Finland, or against the Soviet Union through Finland. If necessary, Finland was to ask for Soviet military aid to do so." (Wikipedia)
In the Paasilinna book, this agreement is somehow invoked and the SU gives material help (weapons and equipment) to Finland. With the Soviet help, Finland manages to stall the Swedish attack and even conquer Swedish Lapland all the way to Umeå (if I remember correctly). The Swedes lose their air superiority to the anti-aircraft systems the Soviets give to Finland (if I remember correctly).
Some time after this, there is a cease fire and peace. The war ends in an approximate tie, with no definite winner. Both sides retreat to pre-war borders.
///
How could this scenario play out in the modern (say, 2000-2006) world? Or, maybe even more interestingly, in 1990-1994 (right after the collapse of the SU, but before Finland and Sweden join the EU)...
How would the political situation play out?
Both Finland and Sweden are in the EU (if the war happens in 2000-2006, or any time post-1994). Neither of them belongs to NATO. There is no more "Agreement of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance" between Finland and modern Russia.
How could we get a fascist, aggressive, hostile-to-Finland, and obviously really irrational and screwed-up government in Sweden? Maybe some rabid neo-nazi group somehow gaining unprecedented popularity ("foreigners out of Sweden blah blah blah conquering back the Empire of Gustavus Adolphus blah blah blah...")?
How would the war play out with modern weaponry?
How would Russia behave? They would think of the protection of St. Petersburg. They might either help Finland (Finland as a buffer state against the aggressive, neo-imperialist, fascist Sweden) or invade as well (Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, Nazi-Germany, Soviet Union, Poland, 1939...). Although the latter would be an outright foreign-policy suicide for Russia (as a fascist government and an aggressive invasion of a neighbouring country would be to Sweden). The Russkies helping out Finland might be feasible (the best PR for them).
What would the UN, EU, NATO, US do? Condemn Sweden? Mediators/negotiations? Would NATO bomb Sweden (like Serbia 1999)? Material support (weapons/equipment) for Finland? Maybe voluntary troops/mercenaries (like in the Spanish Civil War)? Peace-keepers?
How would this war play out and how would it end? Either 2000-2006 time period or 1990-1994 time period.
Paasilinna also had a map of a sort. It looked something like this: