WI Operation Finlandia (war between Sweden/Finland)?

In 1972, Finnish writer Arto Paasilinna

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arto_Paasilinna

wrote a satirical novel, "Operaatio Finlandia" (Operation Finlandia), about a fictional war between Sweden and Finland. I read the book several years ago, but the idea is fascinating: how could this play out in the "real" (or ASB) world? I've fiddled with this idea of Paasilinna for about a week now...

This might actually be ASB stuff, because an actual war (with armies shooting each other, bombing raids etc.) between Sweden and Finland seems to be a pretty far-out possibility... Then again, MAYBE NOT - remember the Torino 2006 Olympics and the battle for the gold medal in ice hockey, with those damn Swedes turning the knife in the wound by mocking us... GrrrAUHHHH!

;-)

Paasilinna has an ultra-nationalist/right-wing/fascist group rising to power in Sweden and apparently trying to conquer back the long lost "Österland" of Sweden (= Finland). The Swedes occupy Åland and invade Finland in Turku and Vaasa areas. Brutal fighting breaks out. The Swedish air force even bomb a nuclear power plant in Finland, if I remember correctly. The Swedes have air superiority at the start of the war.

In the book it is still the 1970s, or "modern day" of that time, so the Soviet Union is still going strong. Now Finland had this infamous "Agreement of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance" with the SU.

Snippet from Wikipedia:

"Under the pact, Finland was obliged to resist armed attacks by "Germany or its allies" (in reality interpreted as the United States and allies) against Finland, or against the Soviet Union through Finland. If necessary, Finland was to ask for Soviet military aid to do so." (Wikipedia)

In the Paasilinna book, this agreement is somehow invoked and the SU gives material help (weapons and equipment) to Finland. With the Soviet help, Finland manages to stall the Swedish attack and even conquer Swedish Lapland all the way to Umeå (if I remember correctly). The Swedes lose their air superiority to the anti-aircraft systems the Soviets give to Finland (if I remember correctly).

Some time after this, there is a cease fire and peace. The war ends in an approximate tie, with no definite winner. Both sides retreat to pre-war borders.

///

How could this scenario play out in the modern (say, 2000-2006) world? Or, maybe even more interestingly, in 1990-1994 (right after the collapse of the SU, but before Finland and Sweden join the EU)...

How would the political situation play out?

Both Finland and Sweden are in the EU (if the war happens in 2000-2006, or any time post-1994). Neither of them belongs to NATO. There is no more "Agreement of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance" between Finland and modern Russia.

How could we get a fascist, aggressive, hostile-to-Finland, and obviously really irrational and screwed-up government in Sweden? Maybe some rabid neo-nazi group somehow gaining unprecedented popularity ("foreigners out of Sweden blah blah blah conquering back the Empire of Gustavus Adolphus blah blah blah...")?

How would the war play out with modern weaponry?

How would Russia behave? They would think of the protection of St. Petersburg. They might either help Finland (Finland as a buffer state against the aggressive, neo-imperialist, fascist Sweden) or invade as well (Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, Nazi-Germany, Soviet Union, Poland, 1939...). Although the latter would be an outright foreign-policy suicide for Russia (as a fascist government and an aggressive invasion of a neighbouring country would be to Sweden). The Russkies helping out Finland might be feasible (the best PR for them).

What would the UN, EU, NATO, US do? Condemn Sweden? Mediators/negotiations? Would NATO bomb Sweden (like Serbia 1999)? Material support (weapons/equipment) for Finland? Maybe voluntary troops/mercenaries (like in the Spanish Civil War)? Peace-keepers?

How would this war play out and how would it end? Either 2000-2006 time period or 1990-1994 time period.

Paasilinna also had a map of a sort. It looked something like this:

op_fin_map.jpg
 
I don't remember how the Soviet Union dimension went in the Paasilinna book, but it would make sense that helping out the Finns would be a big PR win for the Soviets, both internationally and especially in Finland.

Instead of doing things like "Czechoslovakia'68" or "Afganistan´79", they would be seen really helping out somebody against "an imperialist aggressor". A (geo-)political win for them.

Moscow could gain a lot more influence in Finland. There was already a small, but vocal communist/stalinist minority in the Finnish student movement in the early 1970s, also a working communist party. Communists in general could gain lots more of political influence. Finland going actually communist or even joining the Warsaw Pact...? It was probably already too late for that sort of thing. If that fictional war would have somehow happened in the 1970s, there would be more pro-Russian attitude in Finland today than there is. Maybe still an active Communist or generally pro-Russian Party in the parliament?...

Finlandization on top gear? :)

What about if this thing would happen after the breakup of SU (post-1991)? The Russians would still have the need to protect St. Petersburg. Exactly how they would do this, is an interesting question. Depends on how well the Finns could defend themselves against the Swedes and what other countries/geopolitical entities would do. It also depends majorly on how the Russians would see the Swedes and their goals (a threat? a potential ally?). They would want to avoid the war creeping closer to the Russian borders.
 

blysas

Banned
If it happened before 1940, let's sat 1939-1940, before the Finland invaision, then most likliy we cold screw up the whole nNothern front.
 
Given that in the 1970s, the Swedes had no airborne and marine units (at least none listed in an order of battle in 1975), their invasion force is going to be even more ramshackle than the German units of Operation Sea Lion. Thus I can not see them landing in the south as portrayed on the map.

Furthermore, if they did, they would be short of armour so the Finns could easily pin them down on the coast. The only thing that would stop them using their own armour in defence would be the Swedes having command of the air and that would be only during the day. By night the invading forces would be subjected to attack troops who would the advantage of local knowledge.

No, if the Swedes are going attack, it have to be in the north where there is nothing worth taking.
 
Yep, could be... the original book wasn't intended to be "real" AH, but a satire, so it is not too specific on "minor" details :)

So this could turn into a "Lapland War" or a "Polar Circle War", with armies fighting over remote fjalls, river lines, roads, small towns and settlements, etc., trying to push each other into the "south", with the "frontline" (if there even is one) undulating over Swedish and Finnish Lapland?

If there is going to be war, then it must be possible to actually fight it in somewhere :) So Lapland it is :)

Probably places and towns like Kiruna, Luleå, Skellefteå on the Swedish side and Kemi, Rovaniemi, Oulu on the Finnish side could be goals/targets of the attacking forces?

There are several rivers neatly aligned on both sides of the Gulf of Bothnia to work as main defensive lines (Luleälven, Skellefteälven on the Swedish side, Kemijoki, Iijoki, Oulujoki on the Finnish side).

I imagine there could be fighting also in and over Åland. That particular island is pretty accessible from both sides of the Gulf of Bothnia - you can actually see the coast of Sweden clearly on certain locations in the western coast of Åland (and demilitarized, so it would be relatively "easy" taking for the Swedes)...

Small commando/special forces strikes targeting ports and specific targets near coastlines? Also small special units operating deep in Finnish/Swedish Laplands behind enemy lines, blowing up bridges/fuel depots/radar stations, disrupting communications, reconnaissance etc.?

Still, the Swedes would have to have an outside ally with convincing marine and airborne capabilities to get a "decent" warfare going on in southern Finland.

Preferably some other ally than Russia, to make things more tricky :)

But, then again, you could always build these needed marine and airborne capabilities if you have the time...

This is looking more and more as ASB stuff as time/posts goes by... hmm...
 
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CalBear

Moderator
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If it happens in the 2000-2006 era the United States gets involved, mucking things up for everyone. (Why? Like we need a reason these days:mad: )

Actually, I do know why the United States would get involved!

Cell phone supply & Volvo (now part of Ford Motor Company). Got keep those Nokia phones & S60's coming!:D

Besides, Iraq might have hidden WMD's up there (Damned things are SOMEPLACE!):rolleyes:
 

Susano

Banned
*waits for the usual scandinavian chauvinists to appear again and telling everybody, as always, that inner-scandinavian conflict could never happan*
 

NapoleonXIV

Banned
The US would get involved in 89-94, probably at Russian request.

This might give the old SU another few years of life, or who knows, a whole new lease on it, with only Communism collapsing but the Union, with the present day Republics fearing the same fate as Finland, rallying to its defense as autonomous regions still under the same strong military.
 
Enters a "usual scandinavian chauvinists"

Susano said:
*waits for the usual scandinavian chauvinists to appear again and telling everybody, as always, that inner-scandinavian conflict could never happan*

Well any Scandinavian to have a view like that, should be considering his/here knowledge of history void. From the 15th century and until the Vienna Congres there vere (simplified) a state of war most of the time.

Hell, Norway and Sweden almost went to war both in the 1880ties and in 1905

So please refrain from using stupid simplifications as "usual scandinavian chauvinists."
 
It would be a silly war. But i can see some reasons

- Oppresed minorities. There are a bunch of Finns in Sweden and a Swedish speeking minority in Finland.

- Åland. For whatever reason...

-My personal fauorite. Laplanders trying to create a Sapmi in northern Sweden. Swedish forces goes into Finland to destroy their bases.
 
The Alternate Finn said:
Still, the Swedes would have to have an outside ally with convincing marine and airborne capabilities to get a "decent" warfare going on in southern Finland.

Preferably some other ally than Russia, to make things more tricky :)

But, then again, you could always build these needed marine and airborne capabilities if you have the time...
Airborne units would be easier for the military to sell to the politicians and general public. After all Sweden is not exactly the sort of country that obviously needs an assault ship. In addition a heliborne lift is less vulnerable. It would be a bit embarassing if the ship was hit by a Finnish missile boat and had to limp back to Sweden.

In contrast helicopters could easily be purchased. In fact the Americans, Soviets, British and French was almost fight to get the contract. There would still be the issue though of heavy equipment. Counterattacking Finn units would at the very least have heavier artillery and if they are prepared to chance their arm, armoured vehicles.

Furthermore, there is no reason why the helicopters need be just used in the planned Operation Skraeling landings in the south. They would be very useful for the campaigning in Lapland as well.

Berra said:
It would be a silly war. But i can see some reasons.
I agree. On the other hand, but for the causus belli it is more feasible than some of the AHs posted here . (No, I am not going to be drawn on examples.)
 
Berra said:
- Oppresed minorities. There are a bunch of Finns in Sweden and a Swedish speeking minority in Finland.

Hmm... the Finns in Sweden seem to be more "oppressed" than the Swedes in Finland; Swedish Finns are mostly immigrant workers from the 1960s-1970s who went to work for our rich western neighbours back those days, and never came back to Finland... The stereotype was/is that they are all alcoholics and fight with knives all the time. They were scorned at in the seventies. If I remember correctly, the Finnish language got an official minority status just a few years ago (or something like that).

The Swedes in Finland are basically people who moved to Finland from Sweden centuries ago. The Finns think they are better off than most "native" Finns and that they "all" belong to the old Swedish stiff-upper-lip class ("bättre folk" = "better people"). Finland is actually a bi-lingual country (both Finnish and Swedish are official languages). The Finnish Swedes have their own radio stations and tv programs and their own party at the parliament (RKP, Ruotsalainen Kansanpuolue, The Swedish Folk Party).

Maybe the ASB swe-nazis, after gaining power in Sweden, could start to harrass and intimidate the Swedish Finns?...

- Åland. For whatever reason...

There was a struggle for the status of Åland between Sweden and Finland back in the 1920s, after Finland gained its independence from Russia/Soviet Union. The League of Nations decided that Åland belonged to Finland.

Maybe the ASB swe-nazis would want to "open up the discussion on the status of Åland" once again?... :) Maybe they could see that island as a kind of "Swedish Sudetenland"?

-My personal fauorite. Laplanders trying to create a Sapmi in northern Sweden. Swedish forces goes into Finland to destroy their bases.

Nice; a Sami version of ETA or IRA, with secret bases on the Finnish side? :)

Maybe a combination of all these options? After the swe-nazis gain power in Sweden, they start to harrass all minorities, including the Finns and the Sami, who form their own resistance organization up north?...

Somehow I like to see the Swedes as the bad guys in this little hyperborean mess :) No offense intended, this is just a thought-game :)
 
The Alternate Finn said:
There was a struggle for the status of Åland between Sweden and Finland back in the 1920s, after Finland gained its independence from Russia/Soviet Union. The League of Nations decided that Åland belonged to Finland.

Maybe the ASB swe-nazis would want to "open up the discussion on the status of Åland" once again?... :) Maybe they could see that island as a kind of "Swedish Sudetenland"
The ASB swe-nazis could also look back at history and remember Finland (and Norway) were once part of Sweden. In a Greater Sweden, these territories would be back under control of Stockholm. Whilst an attack on Norway would lead to a war with NATO, Finland could be "rejoined" with Sweden without a third party intervening, assuming that the ASB swe-nazis would care about that. Today Helsinki, tomorrow Oslo.
 
If the map is from the story it means that we swedes have lost the majority of our ironmanufacutringcapabilities so were screwed

Why attack Finland, it got nothing of value for us so thats strange. Why not retaking Norway with the oil
 
mattep74 said:
Why attack Finland, it got nothing of value for us so thats strange. Why not retaking Norway with the oil
The reason would be because the ASB swe-nazis want to regain all territory that should be Swedish. In that they are following in the steps of India and Pakistan who have fought over a glacier for the last fifty years or Russia's and China's dispute over a island in the middle of a river.

Norawy is a tricky target for the ASB swe-nazis because of its membership in NATO. However, if they waited until after the Cold War and struck during the First Gulf War in which the Americans are diverted, they would expect to get away with it. They would not have the lesson of the Yugoslavian Civil War and the bombing of Serbia to learn from.
 

Susano

Banned
Red said:
Well any Scandinavian to have a view like that, should be considering his/here knowledge of history void. From the 15th century and until the Vienna Congres there vere (simplified) a state of war most of the time.

Hell, Norway and Sweden almost went to war both in the 1880ties and in 1905

So please refrain from using stupid simplifications as "usual scandinavian chauvinists."
Hm. You were not among the "usual suspects" I had in mind. Thus, I do apologise. I didnt meant to say that everybody who had any particular opinion on the plausibility of scandinavian wars would be a chauvinist. It was just a sacrastic remark because there IS a group of such scandinavians here.
 
Susano said:
Hm. You were not among the "usual suspects" I had in mind. Thus, I do apologise. I didnt meant to say that everybody who had any particular opinion on the plausibility of scandinavian wars would be a chauvinist. It was just a sacrastic remark because there IS a group of such scandinavians here.

Nah, its okey realy :p :D

Its just that I by default hate beeing put in some general category... ;)
 
mattep74 said:
If the map is from the story

I drew the map from memory. The Paasilinna book had a simple map pretty much like that one.

Why attack Finland, it got nothing of value for us so thats strange. Why not retaking Norway with the oil

This is a bit ASB stuff, surely... Then again, why would the actions of these imaginary Swedish conquerors make any real sense whatsoever?

If we assume that they are following some kind of fascist, imperialist political religion (like a version of national socialism), then they are basically guided by IRRATIONAL principles. For example, nazism really had nothing to do with reason (the use of reason links to Enlightenment philosophy and the French revolution, both of which the nazis really despised or outright hated), but it had everything to do with milleniarism; nazism had "a thousand year Reich", a Messiah (Hitler), "chosen people" ("the Aryans", which is nothing but a fantasy race) devout, cult-like followers... Same kind of milleniarist thinking underlines probably pretty much all religions (Christianity, Islam, Judaism for sure) and definitely communism (instead of a "chosen people" they have a "chosen class", the proletariat, instead of "a thousand year kingdom/Reich" they have "a communist society").

How "rational" was the nazi conquest of whole Europe + parts of Soviet Union? There was no rationality in it at all. They followed a romantic, chauvinistic, irrational myth of the "Aryan race", "destined" to rule over everyone else.

Even most versions of nationalism have milleniarist underpinnings. The inhabitants of your "own" country are "the chosen people", you have "Others" or "not-us" as your "mortal enemies" to boost national unity (probably the inhabitants of some neighbouring country - in Finland we have the Russians, of course), you have your own "thousand year kingdom/Reich" - which is of course your independent home country. You probably have even some "messiahs", people who made the independence of your country possible (in Finland these would be figures like Mannerheim, Snellman, Lönnrot, Runeberg etc.).

So these imaginary swe-nazis would be followers of a political cult/religion. Cults do crazy stuff.
 
Let's put the war at early 90's. Sweden got some nice new arms then.

Replase the Kurds with the Finns as the prime suspect for the Palmekilling and give Laplanders with Chernobyl. Then let everthing spiral from there.
 
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