WI: Operation Eagle Claw successful?

What if Operation Eagle Claw, the plan to rescue the Americans being held at the US Embassy in Tehran during the Iran Hostage Crisis, had been successful, and the students successfully rescued?

Perhaps the operation is delayed for one day or something.

How does a successful OEC effect things?
 
I think you're going to need a much more substantial POD to make Operation Eagle Claw a success. Namely you're going to have to get the US Special Forces to coordinate better and have SOCOM be formed earlier. Perhaps a POD could be a joint rescue attempt in Vietnam that fails miserably. This then prompts an earlier reorganization in time for the Iranian Revolution.

An early enough POD would give you enough leeway to have a reasonably workable plan.

A success would be a major boon to Carter and the Democrats which could flip the election to him or at the very least lead to Reagan dealing with a more Democratic Congress.
 
This of course assumes that the plan can be made to work, a lot of commentators have said that it was over complex and some hostages may actually have died in the crossfire. It certainly is going to need the American military to have avoided the post Vietnam slump and spending cuts and have much better training and serviceability.

If they do pull it off with say less than 10 hostages dead, then there is a massive surge in patriotism probably helping Carter see off Reagan.
 
It would certainly boost Carter's reputation as President, though without the hostage crisis the economy is going to be the number one issue. 1980 would probably be a close election.
 
This of course assumes that the plan can be made to work, a lot of commentators have said that it was over complex and some hostages may actually have died in the crossfire. It certainly is going to need the American military to have avoided the post Vietnam slump and spending cuts and have much better training and serviceability.

If they do pull it off with say less than 10 hostages dead, then there is a massive surge in patriotism probably helping Carter see off Reagan.

I agree that OTL's plan for Operation Eagle Claw was a disaster. WAY too many variables IMO, way too many things that could go wrong. I'm pretty certain that the Americans were lucky the mission got called off when it did. Had things gone belly up during the rescue itself (probable) you would've had a major loss of life on both sides and an even bigger crisis.
 
I assume for it to work the US would have to get it`s collective shit together for this sort of thing. If it did work then Carter would bask in the glory and perhaps get re-elected and all sorts of other things.
 
It has always come across as overly complex.

Driving into Tehran in "captured" lorries, overpower the hostage takers, transport to the stadium, occupation of the Iranian airport, ...... the list is nearly endles.

But,, let's say it comes off as planned:

Iran was not an outcast at this time as far as I know, so a US intervention in a independent country, in a Middle East setting, might not look good.

Would Saudi support it (I don't think they did)? Would it be seen as an attack on a Muslim country?

I don't think the Arabic world would applaud this, as it would clearly show the extreme might of the US (this was a huge complex operation, nearly an invasion).

I think it would have backfired in a serious way. Carter would have been looked at as a war monger of note in an international context. Would France, Germany, UK have been fine with this? It's like using the sledgehammer to crack a nut. A bit over the top.

Ivan
 
I don`t think they had a hell of a lot of choice with regards to the major plan details, Tehran is a hell of a long way from the Arabian Sea so a lot of helicopters would have been required. The devil was in the details; like the USN demanding that only helicopters which could be stowed in a carrier hangar be used, and using USMC line pilots to get the Marines in on the act. This precluded the use of the USAF CSAR helicopter units which would be far better at this sneaky, deep penetration mission in a hostile country.

The whole operation became too big and muscular rather than covert and thoughtful.
 
I don`t think they had a hell of a lot of choice with regards to the major plan details, Tehran is a hell of a long way from the Arabian Sea so a lot of helicopters would have been required. The devil was in the details; like the USN demanding that only helicopters which could be stowed in a carrier hangar be used, and using USMC line pilots to get the Marines in on the act. This precluded the use of the USAF CSAR helicopter units which would be far better at this sneaky, deep penetration mission in a hostile country.

The whole operation became too big and muscular rather than covert and thoughtful.

Blowing up a petrol tanker didn't help either...
 
I think you're going to need a much more substantial POD to make Operation Eagle Claw a success. Namely you're going to have to get the US Special Forces to coordinate better and have SOCOM be formed earlier. Perhaps a POD could be a joint rescue attempt in Vietnam that fails miserably. This then prompts an earlier reorganization in time for the Iranian Revolution.

An early enough POD would give you enough leeway to have a reasonably workable plan.

A success would be a major boon to Carter and the Democrats which could flip the election to him or at the very least lead to Reagan dealing with a more Democratic Congress.

Maybe have a failed Mayaguez rescue lead to the development of SOCOM or some equivalent?
 
Let's not even consider the part where an Iranian highway was to be used as an air base with all traffic being stopped and aircraft coming and going in full view of Allah and radar.

As has been noted the operation could all too easily have led to deaths and more hostages.
 
even if it had been successful, I don't think you'd see Carter reelected... he was the one who 'allowed' the hostages to be taken in the first place, didn't foresee the Russians invading Afghanistan, was basically helpless in the oil embargo, etc. etc. Carter had plenty of nails in his coffin already, the hostage crisis was just one more...
 
That is where it becomes interesting.

If it had come off as planned.

Would Carter have been popular (suddenly)?

I think the people having voted for him, based on his honesty and desire to set things right (not voting for him as against something, but positively voting for him), would drop him after such an invasion.

The whole operation was far beyond a raid or anything. It was like a mini-invasion.

Ivan
 
That is where it becomes interesting.

If it had come off as planned.

Would Carter have been popular (suddenly)?

I think the people having voted for him, based on his honesty and desire to set things right (not voting for him as against something, but positively voting for him), would drop him after such an invasion.

The whole operation was far beyond a raid or anything. It was like a mini-invasion.

Ivan

That's not what I had in mind.

You yourself said there were so many things that could go wrong. If the operation goes ahead, it could be a massive cock-up, and in any event will result in the loss of a huge number of lives.
 
Maybe have a failed Mayaguez rescue lead to the development of SOCOM or some equivalent?

The Mayaguez incident was in '75. It took a lot longer in OTL to get SOCOM set up...but who knows? Maybe Carter makes it a priority in TTL. If he does Henry Jackson could be counted on to help steward it through the Senate. At any rate it's a place to start... A POD earlier in the Vietnam War might be better.

I don`t think they had a hell of a lot of choice with regards to the major plan details, Tehran is a hell of a long way from the Arabian Sea so a lot of helicopters would have been required. The devil was in the details; like the USN demanding that only helicopters which could be stowed in a carrier hangar be used, and using USMC line pilots to get the Marines in on the act. This precluded the use of the USAF CSAR helicopter units which would be far better at this sneaky, deep penetration mission in a hostile country.

The whole operation became too big and muscular rather than covert and thoughtful.

This I think raises the most interesting aspect of this thread. Given the various problems with OTL's Operation Eagle Claw, and an earlier POD that leads to the creation of SOCOM. What would be a workable plan to get the Hostages out of Tehran with minimal bloodshed?

Even for a competent SOCOM that's going to be a tall order...
 
What if the Shah isn't allowed into the US? Would the hostage crisis even happen?

My US History TA had a conspiracy theory that the crisis was intentionally triggered so that the Iranian assets in US banks would be frozen, and that the "banking lobbyists" were behind the Carter administration's letting the Shah in.
He was a crazy dude.
 
Carter's administration should have seen the tide turning against the Shah long before they allowed him into the country for medical reasons. With Iran's population already anti-American and growing in opposition of the Shah, when the President hosted the Shah in '77, it just fueled the hatred. Carter knew the Shah was on thin ice and still went ahead with toasting him at a dinner.

That worsened the situation, essentially sealed the Shah's fate. When he asked for entrance into the country after it became known he was dying of cancer, Carter initially opposed the idea, but relented because of humanitarian reasons. I believe Carter took a vote and they all told him to allow him in, even though no one knew what to do if they held Americans hostage.

Carter should have shut down the embassy and told employees there to evacuate when the Shah was overthrown. The situation was far too volatile and allowing the Shah inside U.S. borders only exasperated it. Had the embassy been shut down, none of this matters and Carter can bring in the Shah on humanity grounds.

Would avoiding the crisis be enough for Carter to win reelection? No. His approval ratings prior to the crisis were awful. In fact, the crisis boosted his approval ratings for a period of time between November & March, but after the botched operation, they quickly deteriorated and Carter quickly became a sitting duck. In fact, the only reason he held any lead against Reagan, really, was because his approval in early '80 was pretty respectable (he had a 52-38 approval in February of that year). But it slowly returned to pre-hostage levels and it ultimately led to his defeat.

So, had the hostage situation not happened, Carter's approval probably stays in the 20s & 30s, which is where they were at in October & November of '79, and he loses in a landslide - maybe even loses the nomination to Kennedy, since he wouldn't have had a boost of support at the crucial point of the '80 primaries.

However, had Operation Eagle Claw somehow defied the odds and was proven successful, I think there is a chance he's able to ride the high approval to reelection. Remember, in reality, Carter's ratings didn't tank until after the operation failed. Had it been a success, it's possible Carter's ratings spike into the 60s and remain there through early spring & part of summer. Maybe the administration rolls out the hostages in the summer of '80 as heroes, throwing a massive parade in New York, giving him another boost in the ratings, or at least sustaining that boost.

I don't know if it would've been enough, but I think the goodwill would have certainly carried over into the late summer. From there, it all depends on how dramatic the ratings drop. If his approval entering the convention is 50-plus, he might go on to beat Reagan, though by a narrow margin.

More likely, he still doesn't beat Reagan, but has a far more respectable defeat:

genusmap.php


Ronald Reagan/George H.W. Bush: 344 EV
Jimmy Carter/Walter Mondale: 194 EV

If his approval can stay above 50%, it might be enough to flip Michigan, Pennsylvania, Missouri and Illinois - which would deliver Carter the election with 280 electoral votes:

genusmap.php


But I'd say scenario number one is probably the most likely. Carter was in a tough spot in 1980. Malaise was an issue and while a successful operation to save the hostages would have certainly boosted morale, I don't know if it would have held long enough to deliver him the election.
 
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