WI: Operation Downfall

Ardimis

Banned
Towards the end of WWII the allies had a plan for the invasion of the Niphon home islands. But with the Soviet Union declaring war on the land of the rising sun, and the Americans dropping two nukes on them the Nipponese surrendered before the operation had to be implemented.

But I was thinking of what if Truman didn't drop the bombs, or the US didn't have them in time. Due to Niphons terrian the Nipponese military knew where the allies would attack and planned accordingly. Though I have now doubt that the Allies and soviets would have won the fight, with casualties possibly in the millions for all sides, tens of millions for the Nipponese, in an invasion that could have took up to five years.

I'm more interested in the Post war effects for Niphon. Would it be stuck in the same situation that post war Germany was in, and be wouldn't reunited tell the fall of the Soviets some forty years later. Or is there other possibilities that I'm not seeing.

Or also on the flip side had the Americans had the nukes, but the Soviets picked not to go to war with Niphon. Would they have still surrendered, or would they have felt that they could hold off the onslaught of the Allies and their nukes, I think not.

EDIT: I just realized this is in the wrong area, sorry
 
Towards the end of WWII the allies had a plan for the invasion of the Niphon home islands. But with the Soviet Union declaring war on the land of the rising sun, and the Americans dropping two nukes on them the Nipponese surrendered before the operation had to be implemented.

But I was thinking of what if Truman didn't drop the bombs, or the US didn't have them in time. Due to Niphons terrian the Nipponese military knew where the allies would attack and planned accordingly. Though I have now doubt that the Allies and soviets would have won the fight, with casualties possibly in the millions for all sides, tens of millions for the Nipponese, in an invasion that could have took up to five years.

I'm more interested in the Post war effects for Niphon. Would it be stuck in the same situation that post war Germany was in, and be wouldn't reunited tell the fall of the Soviets some forty years later. Or is there other possibilities that I'm not seeing.

Or also on the flip side had the Americans had the nukes, but the Soviets picked not to go to war with Niphon. Would they have still surrendered, or would they have felt that they could hold off the onslaught of the Allies and their nukes, I think not.

EDIT: I just realized this is in the wrong area, sorry

First, to get a pet peeve off, Nippon or Nihon, never Niphon. (>.<)

My thoughts off the top of my head:

The bombs not being ready in time would be the more plausable reason.

Millions of allied casualties is an overestimate. 1-2 million casualties, with several hundred thousand KIAs is more realistic. Although there's a wildcard below...

Japanese casualties will vary, but will definately be in the tens of millions. Many of these will be civilians, but honestly, and I'm sure this will get lots of hot debate, from my having lived here in Japan 17 years and spoken with several WWII survivors, there would not have been as fanatical a civilian resistance as many expected. I really don't think the will was there among the common people. Plus, the people were on starvation rations already, and weren't in good shape to resist. Most civilian deaths will be due to starvation and disease rather than combat.

The wildcard for both sides casualties will be the use of atomic weapons. Radiatioactive fallout wasn't really understood well at the time, and plans were that US troops would move into the area after only 48 hours. There would have been a lot of "self-inflicted" radiation casualties.

The second question for atomic weapons use would be the targets - strategic, tactical, or a mix. I'd expect a mix. The top five strategic targets would most likely be, in order: Kokura, Hiroshima, Kyoto, Yokohama, and Niigata.

As for the Soviets, they're most likely to take advantage of a delay. They'd seize Hokkaido a la August Storm style - take the ports and airfields with airborne units in conjunction with an amphib assault.

I'd expect Japan to look much like Korea, split into North and South.
 
The second question for atomic weapons use would be the targets - strategic, tactical, or a mix. I'd expect a mix. The top five strategic targets would most likely be, in order: Kokura, Hiroshima, Kyoto, Yokohama, and Niigata.

As for the Soviets, they're most likely to take advantage of a delay. They'd seize Hokkaido a la August Storm style - take the ports and airfields with airborne units in conjunction with an amphib assault.

I'd expect Japan to look much like Korea, split into North and South.

to get my pet peeve off my chest, WHY WOULD THEY BOMB KYOTO?
for the lack of a better word, Kyoto is the Japanese euqivilent of the Vatican. Bombing the Religious center of any country would create fanatics, no mater what condition they're in.

any who.....

I agree. North/South Japan, but unless they get some kindda Japanese Great Leader, it'll probably end up like Germany.
 

Ardimis

Banned
Sorry 'bout the spelling of Nihon :p

Also other then the North/South similarities occupied Nippon would be more akin to Germany then Korea.
 
to get my pet peeve off my chest, WHY WOULD THEY BOMB KYOTO?
for the lack of a better word, Kyoto is the Japanese euqivilent of the Vatican. Bombing the Religious center of any country would create fanatics, no mater what condition they're in.

any who.....

I agree. North/South Japan, but unless they get some kindda Japanese Great Leader, it'll probably end up like Germany.

Here's what the Target Committee at Los Alamos reccommended. My above switches are based on how invading Kyushu would affect strategiuc target selections.

6. Status of Targets
A. Dr. Stearns described the work he had done on target selection. He has surveyed possible targets possessing the following qualification: (1) they be important targets in a large urban area of more than three miles in diameter, (2) they be capable of being damaged effectively by a blast, and (3) they are unlikely to be attacked by next August. Dr. Stearns had a list of five targets which the Air Force would be willing to reserve for our use unless unforeseen circumstances arise. These targets are:
(1) Kyoto - This target is an urban industrial area with a population of 1,000,000. It is the former capital of Japan and many people and industries are now being moved there as other areas are being destroyed. From the psychological point of view there is the advantage that Kyoto is an intellectual center for Japan and the people there are more apt to appreciate the significance of such a weapon as the gadget. (Classified as an AA Target)​
(2) Hiroshima - This is an important army depot and port of embarkation in the middle of an urban industrial area. It is a good radar target and it is such a size that a large part of the city could be extensively damaged. There are adjacent hills which are likely to produce a focussing effect which would considerably increase the blast damage. Due to rivers it is not a good incendiary target. (Classified as an AA Target)​
(3) Yokohama - This target is an important urban industrial area which has so far been untouched. Industrial activities include aircraft manufacture, machine tools, docks, electrical equipment and oil refineries. As the damage to Tokyo has increased additional industries have moved to Yokohama. It has the disadvantage of the most important target areas being separated by a large body of water and of being in the heaviest anti-aircraft concentration in Japan. For us it has the advantage as an alternate target for use in case of bad weather of being rather far removed from the other targets considered. (Classified as an A Target)​
(4) Kokura Arsenal - This is one of the largest arsenals in Japan and is surrounded by urban industrial structures. The arsenal is important for light ordnance, anti-aircraft and beach head defense materials. The dimensions of the arsenal are 4100' x 2000'. The dimensions are such that if the bomb were properly placed full advantage could be taken of the higher pressures immediately underneath the bomb for destroying the more solid structures and at the same time considerable blast damage could be done to more feeble structures further away. (Classified as an A Target)​
(5) Niigata - This is a port of embarkation on the N.W. coast of Honshu. Its importance is increasing as other ports are damaged. Machine tool industries are located there and it is a potential center for industrial despersion. It has oil refineries and storage. (Classified as a B Target)​
(6) The possibility of bombing the Emperor's palace was discussed. It was agreed that we should not recommend it but that any action for this bombing should come from authorities on military policy. It was agreed that we should obtain information from which we could determine the effectiveness of our weapon against this target.​
B. It was the recommendation of those present at the meeting that the first four choices of targets for our weapon should be the following:

a. Kyoto
b. Hiroshima
c. Yokohama
d. Kokura Arsenal

C. Dr. Stearns agreed to do the following: (1) brief Colonel Fisher thoroughly on these matters, (2) request reservations for these targets, (3) find out more about the target area including exact locations of the strategic industries there, (4) obtain further photo information on the targets, and (5) to determine the nature of the construction, the area, heights, contents and roof coverage of buildings. He also agreed to keep in touch with the target data as it develops and to keep the committee advised of other possible target areas. He will also check on locations of small military targets and obtain further details on the Emperor's palace. 7. Psychological Factors in Target Selection
A. It was agreed that psychological factors in the target selection were of great importance. Two aspects of this are (1) obtaining the greatest psychological effect against Japan and (2) making the initial use sufficiently spectacular for the importance of the weapon to be internationally recognized when publicity on it is released.
B. In this respect Kyoto has the advantage of the people being more highly intelligent and hence better able to appreciate the significance of the weapon. Hiroshima has the advantage of being such a size and with possible focussing from nearby mountains that a large fraction of the city may be destroyed. The Emperor's palace in Tokyo has a greater fame than any other target but is of least strategic value.

http://www.dannen.com/decision/targets.html
 
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