WI Operation Downfall took place?

Blair152

Banned
Last Sunday, on History International, I saw the program X-Day-----The Invasion of Japan. The codenames of the invasions were the names of cars:
Buick, Ford, Cadillac, Dodge, and Hudson. X-Day would have been part of Operation Olympic-------which was scheduled to begin on November 1, 1945. Then Operation Coronet would have begun on March 1, 1946, which
was going to be called Y-Day. Dewey, assuming he was President at the time, would probably call a meeting to plan it. One person would have to be
left in the dark. That person, no surprise, would be Douglas MacArthur. Why?
Because he couldn't be trusted to keep his pie hole shut. The Navy, repre-
sented by Ernest J. King, and Admiral Leahy, remembered Iwo Jima and Okinawa. Both were bloodbaths and the butcher's bill was high. The Navy
didn't have the stomach for the fight. The Navy predicted casualties as high as two million men. That was for the invasion of Kyushu alone. The Japanese had built up its forces on Kyushu to 1:1. The Army, led by General of the Army, and later Secretary of State, George Marshall, massaged the numbers down to two hundred thousand. Even after the dropping of Little Boy, on Hiroshima, and Fat Man, on Nagasaki, there were projections of building another nine atomic bombs to bring the Japanese to heel if they didn't surrender.
 
Ihave a very personal interest in this...

...My father was on embarkation leave in Calcutta for the invasion of Kyushu when the A-bombs were dropped on Japan.

Estimates of allied casualties were up to 250,000 dead. My father would have been in the second wave, with other Royal Engineers personnel. I am not sure that I would have been born if Downfall had taken place.

The Japanese had a wide range of rather nasty technical surprises that were generally suicide weapons. Whilst nukes plus US resources mean a Japanese defeat, the probable casualty list would have run into millions.

Don't rely upon Stalin - he wanted the Kuriles and Sakhalin, but he also wanted the Allies bled to death. The nukes and their power were beyond his comprehension until actually used, which is not really surprising. Although already working on his own nukes, Stalin was shaken by what happened.
 

Bearcat

Banned
What are the chances I get laid by Keira Knightley? :cool:

About the same as this POD, I'd wager.

Knowing you have the bomb and more coming, why would you charge into Kyushu knowing it'll be sheer carnage?

You don't. The invasion would have been postponed, then canceled at least for 1945. The Japanese, robbed of their last chance to inflict unacceptable damage on the Allies, throw in the towel before the entire country faces starvation in the spring of 1946.
 
If somebody in the Manhattan Project fucks up, the only real option is Downfall. It's like...in order of least overall suffering to most overall suffering:

Hiroshima and Nagasaki ---> Operation Downfall ---> continued Operation Starvation
 

Blair152

Banned
What are the chances I get laid by Keira Knightley? :cool:

About the same as this POD, I'd wager.

Knowing you have the bomb and more coming, why would you charge into Kyushu knowing it'll be sheer carnage?

You don't. The invasion would have been postponed, then canceled at least for 1945. The Japanese, robbed of their last chance to inflict unacceptable damage on the Allies, throw in the towel before the entire country faces starvation in the spring of 1946.
That's right. It would probably be the same result but then again, maybe not. MacArthur wasn't told until just before it was supposed to begin and
he still believed in it.
 

Bearcat

Banned
MacArthur was a vainglorious idiot, loved by a number of us here with Pacific interests only slightly less than antibiotic-resistant clap. :p
 

Blair152

Banned
MacArthur was a vainglorious idiot, loved by a number of us here with Pacific interests only slightly less than antibiotic-resistant clap. :p
Yes, he was. Dwight Eisenhower was asked by a woman if he knew General
MacArthur. Eisenhower replied: "Do I know General MacArthur? Madam, I studied under him!" We could have bypassed the Philippines in our island hopping campaign. That's what Chester Nimitz wanted. MacArthur wanted to
make good on his promise to return to the Philippines. MacArthur could have
fulfilled his promise to return after the Japanese garrison, under General Yamashita, would have been left to whither on the vine.
 
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