WI: Operation "Cabralzinho" was launched ?

Would it be another Falklands ?

  • Yes

    Votes: 9 52.9%
  • Maybe

    Votes: 6 35.3%
  • No

    Votes: 2 11.8%

  • Total voters
    17
One of the most occult WI scenarios of the World, The Brazilian president Jânio Quadros planned to use the Algerian war to invade French Guiana with about 5 Brigades (2,500) using the forest paths to catch the French small Garrison by surprise. The plan was aborted when Jânio resigned on the 25th of August of 1961, on the same month the plan was made. But what if that didn't happen ? What if the operation was launched ? I personally doubt that it would be an early Falklands: French Guiana has a land connection with Brazil, the Brazilian army is famous for his great abilities to fight on Jungles and harsh terrains (especially the Amazon), and the French were dealing with internal unrest and the Algerian war. What do you think that would happen ? How would the USA and the USSR react ?
 
French Guyana was a département, an integral part of france, contrary to the falklands, it also was already considered in 1961 as a place for the future space center, France just got nuclear weapons, yes france was still involved in algeria but it would be only really be a naval war for france. The only parts worth anything in guyana are just on the coast and france will quickly sink any brazilian ship there, Guyana is also much closer than the falklands, the coast will be taken back within a few weeks maximum. If the brazilian army fights a guerilla warfare in the forest you can be sure brazil will get isolated and sanctionned harshly.

I wonder if france could call for NATO's article 5, after all french guyana is in the north atlantic ocean*, being above the equator, and it is considered as an integral part of France.

*" such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area."
 
This was part of the "Lobster War", which also had regular staredowns between the Brazilian Navy and French Navy, so would have a significant naval component as well. Brazil's navy in 1961 was mostly ex-US/UK WWII warships (including a Colossus-class light carrier), so was definitely inferior to France's, but would still be operating in home waters and in range of land-based aviation. So this wouldn't be quite a walkover like the Falklands was, at least assuming the Brazilians could decently maintain their Navy/Air Force.
 
With regards to Brazilian units having Jungle experiance - Many French units would also have Jungle experiance plus actual combat experiance in Jungle warfare and their troops particularly the type of unit sent is going to be relatively well equipped, trained and led.

The French military is also going to have far more experiance of expeditionary warfare and the logistics necessary to support such an expedition - the Brazilian Military is not going to have this level of actual operational experiance.
 
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