WI: Operation Algeciras succeeds?

From Wikipedia...

Operation Algeciras was an aborted Argentine plan to sabotage a Royal Navy warship in Gibraltar during the Falklands War. The Argentine assumption was that if the British military felt vulnerable in Europe, they would decide to keep some vessels in European waters rather than send them to the Falklands.
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The plan was to launch divers from Algeciras, have them swim across the bay, to Gibraltar, under cover of darkness, attach the mines to a British naval ship and swim back to Algeciras. The timed detonators would cause the mines to explode after the divers had time to safely swim back across the bay. The plan was foiled when the Spanish police became suspicious of their behavior and arrested them before any attack could be mounted.

So, what if the attack had succeeded? What would the political implications be, especially concerning the ongoing Falklands War? Would the UK continue to hold back against Argentina (Exclusion Zone, etc) or would we be seeing Avro Vulcans bombing Buenos Aires? Also, what would the international reaction be?
 

HJ Tulp

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From Wikipedia...



So, what if the attack had succeeded? What would the political implications be, especially concerning the ongoing Falklands War? Would the UK continue to hold back against Argentina (Exclusion Zone, etc) or would we be seeing Avro Vulcans bombing Buenos Aires? Also, what would the international reaction be?


For starters this is a attack on a NATO member in Europe. The UK could very well invoke article 5 of the NATO Charter. Personally I doubt it as the war is a question of prestige for the UK but if things get a bit rough for the TaskForce there is nothing stopping a few NATO warships to provide extra cover.

Also, the Argentinian strategy sounds faulty. Why would the RN keep extra ships in Europe just because one of them get's blown up in harbour by frogmen? Hell it's even a reason to keep more ships at sea where they are safe for frogmen.

This does give me a idea though. What if the Argentineans send the ARA San Luis on a trip to a European or North African country prior to the initial invasion. There they top up with fuel and make a nuisance of themselves onces the Falklands are taken. That might lead to more RN ships staying in Europe. It might also butterfly away their torpedo problems.
 
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