alternatehistory.com

In 1978, Chile and Argentina were poised on the brink of total war over the disputed Picton, Lennox and Nueva Islands. As the crisis worsened, Argentina tooled up for a full-scale invasion of Chile. Dubbed Operación Soberanía (Operation Sovereignty), the plan called for seizure of the disputed islands by the Argentine Navy, followed by an invasion of mainland Chile through the Mangelles region and the Andes mountains. D-Day was December 22, with combat operations beginning at 20:00 (8PM)

The Chileans could tell the Argies were gearing up for a major attack and mobilized. They deployed troops to the border, mined invasion routes, and scrambled their navy.

On D-Day, a massive storm disrupted Argentine naval preperations. Meanwhile, Pope John Paul II, fearing war between two majority-Catholic nations, sent his envoy to mediate the crisis. Only six hours before the war was set to begin, Buenos Aires recalled it’s fleet and called off the operation.

What if the storm had not arisen and the Pope waited just a bit longer to send his envoy? From the sound of things, this was going to be a war unlike any other South America had seen since the 19th Century. Argentinian casualty projections estimated that 30,000 - 50,000 of their soldiers would die in the war, and Argentinian planners decided that there was a very real risk that the war could expand to a wider South American conflict. There are indications that DINA worked on a plan to contamiate Argentinian water supplies in case of invasion.

What do you think would happen? Who do you think would win?
Top