WI: Only South Carolina seceded from the Union

A major reason why the South seceded is that the fire eaters were very well organized while the southern Unionists were not. If the southern Unionists were better organized, they could have prevented the early stampede to secede. If some of the leading Unionists decided the threat of secession was ongoing and real, they could have started ongoing correspondences and plans to defeat future attempts.

Also, many of the states voted to secede only because they felt they would be alone and that a Deep South confederacy was going to happen. Put one defeat for secession early on, and the whole scheme could collapse. If people thought, for example, that Georgia would not secede, then a lot of votes for secession in Alabama or elsewhere could easily become against votes.

In a scenario where only SC seceded, and the other states did not; the first likely step of the Federal government is to make sure it retains control of Federal property in the South in case secession is brought up again. That means Southern officers removed from command in the South and assigned elsewhere while more loyal officers are placed there. It means making sure arsenals, forts, and custom houses are adequately protected. This will take several months to do.

The second step is to make things as uncomfortable as possible for South Carolina while not provoking a war since that may lead to other states seceding. South Carolina alone won't have much of an army. So if Federal government resupplies Fort Sumter, it should be OK. No invasion though.

Third step is then to simply wait things out until South Carolina comes to its senses and begins negotiations to rejoin the Union. With no other states supporting it, with the Federal government's authority stabilized, and Europe not recognizing it, South Carolina has a year at most before it collapses.

In the meantime, the new Republican administration begins the process of creating a Republican Party in the southern states through patronage jobs. It will be very limited in the Deep South, but in the Border States and Upper South, the Republicans will likely build a very strong local party quickly by bringing in old Whigs and appealing to small independent farmers.

By 1862, a lot of the South will have Republican office holders in the legislature, and perhaps even some statewide offices. By 1864, it'll be very obvious that the Upper South will never secede. The hysteria of the 1860 election will be over, and too many people's self interest will be against secession. Any proposed southern confederacy will obviously limited to the Deep South.

Slavery will be forbidden in the Territories and other measures taken to prevent its spread and protect the ability of Free States to be free of slaves, but slavery won't be attacked int he states it is already present by the Federal government. Most of the Republican rhetoric thought won't be against slavery, but against the economic power and political privelege of the slave holding elite which will be a much more powerful vote getter. Instead, we'll slowly see initiatives in the Border States by local Republicans to begin gradual emancipation probably by the 1870s.

So in the first decade, I see a prolonged assault against the way slave holding plantation aristocrats monopolize power and keep poor whites disenfranchised. Only after political reforms are instituted and the plantation aristocrats' monopoly is broken, will the Republicans truly begin an attack on slavery and move towards abolition. At this point, we probably have Republican governors and senators in a few Border States or Upper South, and maybe lesser statewide positions in the Deep South. That's probably begins around 1880 or so.
 
A major reason why the South seceded is that the fire eaters were very well organized while the southern Unionists were not. If the southern Unionists were better organized, they could have prevented the early stampede to secede. If some of the leading Unionists decided the threat of secession was ongoing and real, they could have started ongoing correspondences and plans to defeat future attempts.

Also, many of the states voted to secede only because they felt they would be alone and that a Deep South confederacy was going to happen. Put one defeat for secession early on, and the whole scheme could collapse. If people thought, for example, that Georgia would not secede, then a lot of votes for secession in Alabama or elsewhere could easily become against votes.

In a scenario where only SC seceded, and the other states did not; the first likely step of the Federal government is to make sure it retains control of Federal property in the South in case secession is brought up again. That means Southern officers removed from command in the South and assigned elsewhere while more loyal officers are placed there. It means making sure arsenals, forts, and custom houses are adequately protected. This will take several months to do.

The second step is to make things as uncomfortable as possible for South Carolina while not provoking a war since that may lead to other states seceding. South Carolina alone won't have much of an army. So if Federal government resupplies Fort Sumter, it should be OK. No invasion though.

Third step is then to simply wait things out until South Carolina comes to its senses and begins negotiations to rejoin the Union. With no other states supporting it, with the Federal government's authority stabilized, and Europe not recognizing it, South Carolina has a year at most before it collapses.

In the meantime, the new Republican administration begins the process of creating a Republican Party in the southern states through patronage jobs. It will be very limited in the Deep South, but in the Border States and Upper South, the Republicans will likely build a very strong local party quickly by bringing in old Whigs and appealing to small independent farmers.

By 1862, a lot of the South will have Republican office holders in the legislature, and perhaps even some statewide offices. By 1864, it'll be very obvious that the Upper South will never secede. The hysteria of the 1860 election will be over, and too many people's self interest will be against secession. Any proposed southern confederacy will obviously limited to the Deep South.

Slavery will be forbidden in the Territories and other measures taken to prevent its spread and protect the ability of Free States to be free of slaves, but slavery won't be attacked int he states it is already present by the Federal government. Most of the Republican rhetoric thought won't be against slavery, but against the economic power and political privelege of the slave holding elite which will be a much more powerful vote getter. Instead, we'll slowly see initiatives in the Border States by local Republicans to begin gradual emancipation probably by the 1870s.

So in the first decade, I see a prolonged assault against the way slave holding plantation aristocrats monopolize power and keep poor whites disenfranchised. Only after political reforms are instituted and the plantation aristocrats' monopoly is broken, will the Republicans truly begin an attack on slavery and move towards abolition. At this point, we probably have Republican governors and senators in a few Border States or Upper South, and maybe lesser statewide positions in the Deep South. That's probably begins around 1880 or so.
Interesting analysis.

Actually I dont see SC going along with the strengthening federal strong points. Otoh, if they attack first, before the Union starts raising troops, maybe it will give a different slant on the issue for eg Virginia.

As for replacing leadership throughout the South with 'loyal', read northern, officers, youd have to be really, really careful about that. That in and of itself could spark wavering states.

Still, if you COULD keep the rest of the south from seceding, the patronage idea might be a way to keep them their, alright. Especially if the Republicans do manage to build a power base in the south based on more than bribes and greed.
 
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