WI One Nation take government in Queensland?

I don't think they'd last long if they did gain power. I could imagine them coming to power as a bit of a mistake and just going mental with their platforms, at which point a lot of their supporters would find out about the negatives of ON. I think tourism would decline as Qld would be seen as a bit Jackboot by the rest of us, and I think all other state and federal govts would gang up on Qld.

A couple of by-elections, may see them lose govt before the next election, and the rednecks may be suitably chastened.

Yes, I think that if they ever did gain power they would fairly quickly have to moderate their stances (losing their 'maverick' status, which was their main drawcard to their supporters), or else risk massive backlash from non-ON Queenslanders.

Also, I strongly agree with the idea that the rest of the state and fed govts would gang up on the ON government. It reminds me a little bit of the EU's stance towards Austria's far-right led coalition govt headed by Jorg Hader a few years back. The EU imposed mild but symbolic sanctions of a sort against Austria for this.

Of course the situation is quite different in Australia, as all the states form a single nation-state so any major 'sanctions' against Qld would be impossible and unconstitutional. However I can see their being a snubbing of the ON govt ie Qld premier conspicuously not invited to events where all other premiers attend, etc (more symbolic thatn substantive). Also, in regards to special purpose Fed grants to the states what is the constitutional status of this, ie as they're discretionary, would the Federal govt be able to withhold these from Qld. If so I can see a situation where regular Federal grants continue (for basic funding of schools, etc), but where particular grants (ie pork-barrel) spending is stopped or severely reduced.
 
OK, I've been thinking about this (on my vacation from AH.com, from which I'm currently taking a brief, um, vacation), and here are my ideas for PODs:

  • Hanson decides to run for Queensland state parliament. In OTL, with complete no-name candidates (the ostensible party leader, Heather Hill, wasn't even elected), ON got 23% of the vote: with Hanson running, they'll be treated as a credible party, with free media attention and maybe even inclusion in televised debates.
  • TV advertising and fundraising. From what I've heard, there was almost no paid media for ON in OTL; with a savvy media campaign, or even any media campaign, they could have significantly increased their vote total. Maybe televised appeals for fundraising?
  • A Labor Party corruption scandal, such as that which erupted in 2000. An inquiry discovered that the Deputy Premier and several prominent MPs had repeatedly and blatantly breached the Electoral Act; such things emerging during an election campaign would be devastating.
  • A different judgement in Kartinyeri v Commonwealth (1998), a High Court case which held, in OTL, that the Commonwealth could legislate to remove rights held by Aborigines in certain circumstances (that is, it could legislate to their detriment as well as benefit). Kirby J dissented, meaning there's legal reasoning to oppose the decision; if the case had gone the other way, public debate would have been ignited.
  • A public endorsement from Joh Bjelke-Peterson. Unlikely, but potentially an 11th-hour clincher.
Give One Nation these things, and while majority government is unlikely they would, I think, do well enough to lead a minority government.

From there, of course, everything is unsure. One election promise they did make was to establish a maximum-security prison 1000 kilometres away from Brisbane: which reminds me, somehow, of Azkaban.
 
OK, one more update:

I've been doing studies on the margins in various Queensland seats. One Nation came second or first in 34 seats, give or take. They won 11 seats, the National Party (who came fourth in the popular vote) won 23.

There are four National Party seats, Crows Nest, Gympie, Burnett and Callide, with a margin of less than 3% to One Nation; after that it jumps out to 8.6%. So say One Nation win these seats, giving them 15 and the National Party 19. So they need five more seats from Labor to become the largest conservative party in Parliament. These would be Bundaburg, Cairns, Ipswich, Kallangur, and Murrumba, with a 5% margin. If you want to inflate the margin Waterford, Bundamba and Mackay will fall with a 7% swing.

So One Nation need a 5% swing, on the two-party preferred, towards them, although the screwiness of the three-party ratio makes that a suspect measure. A coalition government would result, with One Nation, as the largest conservative party, a relatively even bet to hold the next premier.

So 5% -- 90 000 voters. We came that close.
 
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