WI: Oilfields more accessible to the Axis

While thank you for the graph, a source would be nice to know for it.

Not trying to be rude, but there others who are interested and would like to know where your spreadsheet came and see what other details are from the sheet(or is that it?)
There was a link to the source at the end of Post 35.
The information from that paragraph came from the table in Post 28 which in turn was compiled from these:

https://www.bgs.ac.uk/mineralsuk/statistics/worldArchive.html
And you weren't being rude.
 
I was reviewing the table and notice that Italy's oil production was less than 10,000 tons for most of the 1930s and 1940s, but then it climbs to 200,000 tons in 1955 and by 1960 was approaching 2 million tons.

Did Italy have the technology to first find it and second to extract it in the 1930s?

"The first attempt to provide Italy with its own oil company came in 1926 with the foundation of Agip - Azienda Generale Italiana Petroli. Although funding was chronically inadequate, Agip was able to conduct its first exploration and extraction operations in Italy and abroad, as well as in the colonies in Africa and the Middle East. A big change came with the decision to use the most advanced American technologies for exploration, which in fact enabled Agip to discover a large natural gas field in the Po Valley. However, this was on the brink of the Second World War and Italy was under the influence of Germany, so the government decided to keep the discovery secret waiting for the means and independence to extract the gas without foreign interference." (from ENI website https://www.eni.com/en_IT/company/eni-history/history-oil-exploration-italy.page)
 
"The first attempt to provide Italy with its own oil company came in 1926 with the foundation of Agip - Azienda Generale Italiana Petroli. Although funding was chronically inadequate, Agip was able to conduct its first exploration and extraction operations in Italy and abroad, as well as in the colonies in Africa and the Middle East. A big change came with the decision to use the most advanced American technologies for exploration, which in fact enabled Agip to discover a large natural gas field in the Po Valley. However, this was on the brink of the Second World War and Italy was under the influence of Germany, so the government decided to keep the discovery secret waiting for the means and independence to extract the gas without foreign interference." (from ENI website https://www.eni.com/en_IT/company/eni-history/history-oil-exploration-italy.page)
I think you're saying yes it was.

Even if Italy was "only" able to increase its domestic oil production to 500,000 tons a year 1940-42 it would have had significant effects on the war in the Mediterranean over those years if concentrated on keeping the fleet operational and supplying the Axis forces in North Africa - in that order.
 
I was reviewing the table and notice that Italy's oil production was less than 10,000 tons for most of the 1930s and 1940s, but then it climbs to 200,000 tons in 1955 and by 1960 was approaching 2 million tons.

Did Italy have the technology to first find it and second to extract it in the 1930s?

"The first attempt to provide Italy with its own oil company came in 1926 with the foundation of Agip - Azienda Generale Italiana Petroli. Although funding was chronically inadequate, Agip was able to conduct its first exploration and extraction operations in Italy and abroad, as well as in the colonies in Africa and the Middle East. A big change came with the decision to use the most advanced American technologies for exploration, which in fact enabled Agip to discover a large natural gas field in the Po Valley. However, this was on the brink of the Second World War and Italy was under the influence of Germany, so the government decided to keep the discovery secret waiting for the means and independence to extract the gas without foreign interference." (from ENI website https://www.eni.com/en_IT/company/eni-history/history-oil-exploration-italy.page)

I think you're saying yes it was.

Even if Italy was "only" able to increase its domestic oil production to 500,000 tons a year 1940-42 it would have had significant effects on the war in the Mediterranean over those years if concentrated on keeping the fleet operational and supplying the Axis forces in North Africa - in that order.

no, was only citing a handy document. MY purely speculative estimation is that the oil & gas in Po Valley could have been reached, but the later (larger) discoveries further south are the ones requiring advances? (purely speculative based on oil & gas development in my own area.)
 
something that has not been mentioned in this thread is that the Axis countries could have stockpiled oil in preparation for war. that would not be an easy task as all three principal members were short of currency reserves but nonetheless it would be possible.

Germany had the option of converting vehicles to wood gas/producer gas, the water heater sized units that can literally burn anything. they DID that starting in 1942 and had savings of millions of barrels of oil.
 
something that has not been mentioned in this thread is that the Axis countries could have stockpiled oil in preparation for war. that would not be an easy task as all three principal members were short of currency reserves but nonetheless it would be possible.

Germany had the option of converting vehicles to wood gas/producer gas, the water heater sized units that can literally burn anything. they DID that starting in 1942 and had savings of millions of barrels of oil.
The problem with that is they would have to import less of something else. Or they would have to reduce the intensity of their military build ups to reduce the demand for raw materials and mount an export drive to earn more foreign currency. AFAIK that is what the German government was actually doing in 1938-39.

In the case of Germany after 1937 a shortage of foreign currency was preventing them from importing the raw materials needed to run their economy at full capacity AFAIK. My thinking was that if the oil was discovered earlier a reduction in oil imports 1933-39 due to greater self-sufficiency would would save the German government foreign currency that they could use to buy other raw materials that they were short of such as iron ore so they could make more steel.

Also the money used to buy German oil instead of imported oil goes into the German economy and the German Treasury gets some of it back through extra tax revenue.

Furthermore when I've suggested that Germany should have put more effort into building up it's synthetic oil industry before the war I've been told two things.
  1. Germany didn't have the steel to build more synthetic oil plants.
  2. Several tons of coal were needed to produce one ton of synthetic oil and the German coal mines were already running at full capacity. Therefore it wasn't possible to produce any more synthetic oil before 1939 unless an ALT Treaty of Versailles allowed Germany to keep the Silesian coal mines that IOTL were awarded to Poland.
So if Germany could produce enough natural petroleum to eliminate the need to develop a synthetic oil industry that would release a lot of structural steel and construction workers by not building the plants and it would make millions of tons of coal available for other uses. One of those uses could be expanding the German iron and steel industry.

I've also read that Germany put a lot of effort into developing an industry to produce crude oil from shale, which was also a very inefficient way of producing oil. Again if the natural oil in Germany had been discovered and exploited in the 1930s there would have been no need for a shale oil industry that would release more resources for use elsewhere.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Please do not bump. Add your comment, or ask a question. Bumping is not allowed.

Having said that I currently have one of TL dealing with just the above topic. What if due to an earthquake in mid 1920s the oil in Algarve region of Portugal was discovered and recoverable with 1930s technology.
 
Please do not bump. Add your comment, or ask a question. Bumping is not allowed.

Having said that I currently have one of TL dealing with just the above topic. What if due to an earthquake in mid 1920s the oil in Algarve region of Portugal was discovered and recoverable with 1930s technology.
I apologize, I assure you I meant no trouble. I honestly don't know what the official policy is on bumping, but thank you for telling me.
 
something that has not been mentioned in this thread is that the Axis countries could have stockpiled oil in preparation for war. that would not be an easy task as all three principal members were short of currency reserves but nonetheless it would be possible.

Germany had the option of converting vehicles to wood gas/producer gas, the water heater sized units that can literally burn anything. they DID that starting in 1942 and had savings of millions of barrels of oil.

The problem with that is they would have to import less of something else. Or they would have to reduce the intensity of their military build ups to reduce the demand for raw materials and mount an export drive to earn more foreign currency. AFAIK that is what the German government was actually doing in 1938-39.

In the case of Germany after 1937 a shortage of foreign currency was preventing them from importing the raw materials needed to run their economy at full capacity AFAIK. My thinking was that if the oil was discovered earlier a reduction in oil imports 1933-39 due to greater self-sufficiency would would save the German government foreign currency that they could use to buy other raw materials that they were short of such as iron ore so they could make more steel.

Also the money used to buy German oil instead of imported oil goes into the German economy and the German Treasury gets some of it back through extra tax revenue.

Furthermore when I've suggested that Germany should have put more effort into building up it's synthetic oil industry before the war I've been told two things.
  1. Germany didn't have the steel to build more synthetic oil plants.
  2. Several tons of coal were needed to produce one ton of synthetic oil and the German coal mines were already running at full capacity. Therefore it wasn't possible to produce any more synthetic oil before 1939 unless an ALT Treaty of Versailles allowed Germany to keep the Silesian coal mines that IOTL were awarded to Poland.
So if Germany could produce enough natural petroleum to eliminate the need to develop a synthetic oil industry that would release a lot of structural steel and construction workers by not building the plants and it would make millions of tons of coal available for other uses. One of those uses could be expanding the German iron and steel industry.

I've also read that Germany put a lot of effort into developing an industry to produce crude oil from shale, which was also a very inefficient way of producing oil. Again if the natural oil in Germany had been discovered and exploited in the 1930s there would have been no need for a shale oil industry that would release more resources for use elsewhere.

a little late replying to your points (lol)

there is no ONE solution to Germany's oil shortage. my suggestion to purchase more oil pre-war was not implying huge reserves, equal to an oil producing country, just that their reserves were impossibly low.

failed to make the connection to the second point, there was another way to power vehicles, the producer gas vehicles, if that had been done on at least a limited basis pre-war, the imported oil could have been stockpiled. it would have been inconvenient to fuel vehicles with wood, coal, peat moss but not impossible.
 
Even given access to an oilfield, they would have logistics problems in getting it back to Germany for refining.
 
That would be a valid point if we were discussing oilfields that weren't in or adjacent to Germany.

Still does.
Pipelines weren't really a thing yet.

Oil+Transported+by+Tank+Cars.jpg


US Oil Tank cars, 1939

So what do they give up to make those cars to shuffle Oil around?
And the Engines to pull them?
 
Still is.
Pipelines weren't really a thing yet.

Oil+Transported+by+Tank+Cars.jpg


US Oil Tank cars, 1939

So what do they give up to make those cars to shuffle Oil around?
And the Engines to pull them?
What the Germans give up is their synthetic oil and shale oil industries - because the German natural oil industry being developed in the 1930s ITTL is a direct substitution of the synthetic and shale oil industries that Germany developed in the 1930s IOTL.

The railway motive power and rolling stock that was shuffling the unprocessed coal and shale around IOTL will be shuffling the crude oil around ITTL.

Furthermore IOTL the Germans built their synthetic oil plants next to the coal mines so that the "shuffling around" of the unprocessed coal would be minimised. Therefore would it have been possible to build oil refineries next to the oil wells ITTL with the resources used to build the synthetic oil plants next the coal mines IOTL?
 
This is a rehash of the spreadsheet in Post 28. I have taken out Turkey and the countries on the wrong side of the Mediterranean to show the sources of oil that were in reasonable reach of Germany plus the USSR.

European Petroleum Productin 1931-69.png
 

Lusitania

Donor
According to Wikipaedia (which I admit is not the most trustworthy of sources) this one was built between 1932 and 1935.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirkuk–Haifa_oil_pipeline
Oil pipelines had existed since end of the 19th century, so the technology existed and there were several of them in the US.

The issue with building them was they were built almost exclusively within one country’s border. The pipeline above was built in British Middle East.

So if oil was discovered in Germany during the 1930s they could of built pipelines to bring the oil to refinery
 
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