WI: Ogodei dies earlier

Sometimes on this board it's discussed a Mongol invasion of Western Europe had Ogodei lived longer.
But what if he died some years EARLIER instead, say, in 1237? Would Kievian Russia be spared invasion, or would conquest of Russia be resumed under his successor (He was Mongke IIRC)?
How would Russia develop without Mongol domination but with a powerful Mongol neighbour?
 
Ogodei's designated successor was his son, Qucha. Qucha was, by all accounts an able man, and he might have been able to succeed as smoothly as Ogodei had done, in which case the timeline might continue on similar lines to those having Ogodei living longer.

The point of departure could depend on how Qucha reacted to his brother, Guyuk, being sent home in disgrace by Batu. In OTL, Ogodei backed Batu and the European invasion proceeded, only to be stopped in its tracks by Ogodei's death. If Qucha backed his brother instead, the situation looks like Guyuk's reign, where the east and west halves of the Mongol empire were headed for a showdown. The best outcome for Russia would be no real winner, but both halves weakened by the clash and the proto-Golden Horde unable to move further west for fear of being attacked from the east.
 
Ogodei's designated successor was his son, Qucha. Qucha was, by all accounts an able man, and he might have been able to succeed as smoothly as Ogodei had done, in which case the timeline might continue on similar lines to those having Ogodei living longer.

The point of departure could depend on how Qucha reacted to his brother, Guyuk, being sent home in disgrace by Batu. In OTL, Ogodei backed Batu and the European invasion proceeded, only to be stopped in its tracks by Ogodei's death. If Qucha backed his brother instead, the situation looks like Guyuk's reign, where the east and west halves of the Mongol empire were headed for a showdown. The best outcome for Russia would be no real winner, but both halves weakened by the clash and the proto-Golden Horde unable to move further west for fear of being attacked from the east.

WRONG The likely outcome would be that the tumens which allowed for the creation of the Golden Horde would move further west, possibly be assimilated into the Turkic population already living there....and hence become stronger...possibly even losing its 'Mongol' identity. Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria......possibly even the Holy Roman Empire itself, would face an invasion.
 
WRONG The likely outcome would be that the tumens which allowed for the creation of the Golden Horde would move further west, possibly be assimilated into the Turkic population already living there....and hence become stronger...possibly even losing its 'Mongol' identity. Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria......possibly even the Holy Roman Empire itself, would face an invasion.


Don't buy it after a draw, but I think that's exactly what would happen if the eastern Mongol empire won the war.
 
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