WI: Ogedei Khan lives longer?

How long would he need to live for the Mongols to conquer Europe? Any opinion's on how the campaign would play out? Do the Mongols reach the Atlantic or can Europe rally to stop them at the Alps or Rhine?
 
Mongols can reach Germany but hardly Rhein. Problem is that Europe is full of forests and hills. These not be very suitable things for people which move with horses. And there is too much castles and Mongols weren't very good with sieges.
 
Mongols can reach Germany but hardly Rhein. Problem is that Europe is full of forests and hills. These not be very suitable things for people which move with horses. And there is too much castles and Mongols weren't very good with sieges.

The Mongols were great with sieges, a few European castles were nothing compared to what they came across in China.
 
We'll first of a lot more people would have died, and maybe about the same amount would have fled west if the mongols failed against the Hre and the western nations. Secondly who would inherit his throne his son guy ul died only 2 years later from alcohol related diseases if ogedai out lives guyuk then I can definitely see a civil war as it was guyuk who made house ogedai the main khans without him we could see batu the son of jochi oldest son of genghis make a bid for the throne also how chagatai was pretty ambitious.
 
Historically, the mongols were able to exploit the disunity in Russia and Poland to overrun it. In Hungary, they faked a withdrawl, lured their opponents into an open area and ambushed them. They were also very good at spreading terror, which prompted many cities to give up without a fight.

In central Europe and the balkans, high mountains and forests would pose huge logistical issues. However, the mongol's greatest asset in Europe comes to play- a complete lack in coordination defending against the mongols. Historically, Pope Gregory and HRE emperor Frederick were fighting each other for control of the catholic church, and neither considered the mongols a low risk. If the mongols moved fast enough and won enough battles, Europe would crumble away.

Of course, delaying Ogedei khan's death creates massive butterflies in later mongol expansion, the civil war, and decline.
 
How long would he need to live for the Mongols to conquer Europe? Any opinion's on how the campaign would play out? Do the Mongols reach the Atlantic or can Europe rally to stop them at the Alps or Rhine?

I believe it is possible. However, China is not yet fully conquered this time. So, a wealthy China, which probably contain most of the worlds gdp, is more attractive than dirt poor Europe.
 
Mongols can reach Germany but hardly Rhein. Problem is that Europe is full of forests and hills. These not be very suitable things for people which move with horses. And there is too much castles and Mongols weren't very good with sieges.

You might as the people in China what they thought of Mongols and sieges
 
Historically, the mongols were able to exploit the disunity in Russia and Poland to overrun it. In Hungary, they faked a withdrawl, lured their opponents into an open area and ambushed them. They were also very good at spreading terror, which prompted many cities to give up without a fight.

In central Europe and the balkans, high mountains and forests would pose huge logistical issues. However, the mongol's greatest asset in Europe comes to play- a complete lack in coordination defending against the mongols. Historically, Pope Gregory and HRE emperor Frederick were fighting each other for control of the catholic church, and neither considered the mongols a low risk. If the mongols moved fast enough and won enough battles, Europe would crumble away.

Of course, delaying Ogedei khan's death creates massive butterflies in later mongol expansion, the civil war, and decline.

There was nothing in the way of the mongols from reaching the English channel, most of the knights in Europe were present at Budapest and crushed. Just read what Conn Iggulden wrote as historical fact after he finished the story about the Mongols OR read What if 2(or 3)
 
Well Europe would certainly be screwed if the Mongol invasion could be continued because of all the warring princes and kings would take forever to unite against the threat and by then it would probably be too late.
 
The other factor to consider is the ability of the Mongols to take whatever advantages the conquered people had and use them on their future conquests. I would also expect that they would be able to utilise as other posters have said the disunity experienced within Europe at that time.
 
Historically, the mongols were able to exploit the disunity in Russia and Poland to overrun it. In Hungary, they faked a withdrawl, lured their opponents into an open area and ambushed them. They were also very good at spreading terror, which prompted many cities to give up without a fight.

In central Europe and the balkans, high mountains and forests would pose huge logistical issues. However, the mongol's greatest asset in Europe comes to play- a complete lack in coordination defending against the mongols. Historically, Pope Gregory and HRE emperor Frederick were fighting each other for control of the catholic church, and neither considered the mongols a low risk. If the mongols moved fast enough and won enough battles, Europe would crumble away.

Of course, delaying Ogedei khan's death creates massive butterflies in later mongol expansion, the civil war, and decline.

No, they beat Hungary with a surprise night attack on the stupidly set up hungarian camp. They got into Hungary in the first place thanks to the stupidity and cowardice of the hungarian leaders. At the time the border area was devised as a huge defensive zone: forest, montains and huge swamps and population purposly kept away. But the guy who led the border guard fled through the safe path and the mongols followed him...

Im by no means an expert of the mongol ivasion of Europe and now next to nothing of it except the hungarian part - but i know that well. The mongols might be expert of siege in other territories but in Hungary most of the stone walled cities and forts didnt fall. And Hungary didnt had big cities and forts compared to the west.

Its one thing what they used in China and another one what they used in EU/Hungary. This was the other side of the world and poor compared to China - especially the east and thats what they saw of it. I think they could have conquered Europe if they wanted to and concentrated the resources needed for it - but i dont think thats likely.
 
Problem is that Europe is full of forests and hills.
Hm, I think, there must be some ban list for history forums for the things you said.

For example:
- deserts are a problem for the Arab Bedouins;
- seas are a problem for the Vikings;
- mountains are the problem for the Macedonians of Alexander the Great;
- forests (and hills) are the problem for the Mongols;
etc

I do not mean ban for ever. But for a month or so, enough to read a good book on the subject. :D
 
They'd chip away more of Europe, perhaps set up a khanate in Hungary and environs...and then there would be tension over division of the spoils.

I think the intra-mongol rivalry would be more significant than what the Austrians/Styrians etc. could offer as a threat (not much, judging by OTL).
 
How are the Mongols going to feed their horses once they're off the plains of Eastern Europe? They could certainly raid the HRE, but it would resemble the Magyars 300 years prior, rather than a complete Mongol conquest.
 
How are the Mongols going to feed their horses once they're off the plains of Eastern Europe? They could certainly raid the HRE, but it would resemble the Magyars 300 years prior, rather than a complete Mongol conquest.

Same way as the Europeans fed THEIR horses
 
There was nothing in the way of the mongols from reaching the English channel, most of the knights in Europe were present at Budapest and crushed. Just read what Conn Iggulden wrote as historical fact after he finished the story about the Mongols OR read What if 2(or 3)
Well.

Well.


If that Conn fellow wrote this, he should stop writing altogether. The knights present were the local hungarian nobles, the hungarian chapter of the templars - and a few others, but not the majority of the knights of europe. The location was not Budapest, but first some skirmishes at Pest and Vác (minor ones), and the main battle was at Muhi (Mohi or at that time Poga, if i remember correctly), near the river Sajó.

After the battle, the general situation wa somewhat... fluid. Some of the fortified cities were taken, but the castles held (the mongols indeed had problems with the castles, even sometimes with the wood-earth ones. Most spectacular was the siege of Esztergom, they could take the city, but not the castle).
IMHO, the relative high number of fortified places still holding, the uncertanity of the mongolian aims (comquest or punishing), the intact forces of Frederick and the HRE just at the edge of the theatre, and their own possible supply situation (the campaign was already about a year long, and they were in the middle of a pretty much devastated country) and the fact, that Béla was alive and kicking, trying to organize resistance made the general situation unpredictable. Geting sucked into a quagmire of a campaign for another year so far away from the base, while the russians may grow restless for pretty much nothing (since Bela did not show any intention for vassalage or tpaying tribute) did not worth it - i always found the whole election thing a phony excuse. To simply put, continuing the campaign did not worth the risks.
 
What the Mongols didn't know about siege warfare, they would eventually pick up from captives and deserters. They captured cities in Central Asia and Persia as it was, and they were masters of psychological warfare, so some cities would surrender to avoid the consequences. Sometimes the Mongols massacred the population anyway; they really were scary.

If German castles held out, then what? Will the Mongols run out of food and water, or will the castles have to be relieved. If the latter, is there anyone to do it?
 
Geting sucked into a quagmire of a campaign for another year so far away from the base, while the russians may grow restless for pretty much nothing (since Bela did not show any intention for vassalage or tpaying tribute) did not worth it - i always found the whole election thing a phony excuse. To simply put, continuing the campaign did not worth the risks.

More importantly, the tensions between the factions of the royal clans were ready to explode, and indeed they did. Batu was able to smooth things over because he returned to Mongolia, and secure his own eastern border, but he could never get the support of the entire Empire again for any westward campaign.

Simply put, to strengthen Batu and his brothers while using soldiers that could strengthen the Toluids or Ogedeids was not in the interest of the latter. Once Ogedei and Subotai both died, nobody was remotely interested in western expansion.

Nogai was but he was a non-Chingisid, his power base was in the west, and had only tiny forces at his disposal.

It's not the election per se, it's how it realigned the interests of the Mongol empire that's important.

Europe's military capabilities or lack thereof are tertiary. With enough effort it can be done, though it may take a few years just for Hungary and neighbours (saying nothing about beyond that), but are you really going to be mucking around with Hungary when your cousins are running amock in your eastern domains?
 
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