In 1241, the Mongol hordes had destroyed the best armies Eastern Europe had to offer. Under the direction of brilliant Mongol general Sabotai, they had defeated a joint Polish-German-Templar-Teutonic army and smashed the Hungarian King's army, and had settled down for the summer in the Hungarian plains to let their horses graze and to prepare for the upcoming campaigns.
Half of the Mongols would most likely go for the rich triad of cities Antwerp, Brugge, and Brussels, cutting down Germany on the way there, and settle in France's fertile grasslands, devastating Paris on the way. The other half would head for Vienna, attack the rich lands of Northern Italy and move south to sack Rome.
HRE Frederick was busy in Italy fighting the local lords and the Pope, and his German homeland was left to its own devices and was full of divided bickering nobles. And while King Louis IX of France had in his possession quite the collection of chivalrous knights, he only had a couple thousand, and seeing how effective the Teutons and Templars were in years past, Christendom did not have much hope of stopping the Tartars at all.
So yeah, IOTL, Ogedai Khan died late 1241, and Sabotai's armies withdrew to Karakorum to choose the next Great Khan. If he had not died, the Mongols would have continued on with their highly successful campaigns. What do you guys think would happen if Ogedai died three years later? Enlighten me.
