WI: Ogedei dies earlier?

So what happens if Ogedei Khan dies in, say, 1240? Is Europe spared?

Most probably it is. Well, I guess, 99% probability that Europe is spared, which means most definitely.

The problem with conquering Europe was that it was legitimate territory of the House of Jouchi (the bloodline of the eldest son of Chengizz Khan). And no one else. This territory (including Europe) was officially known as "Ulus of Jouchi" so every kid in the Eurasian steppe knew that only successors of Jouchi have the highest legitimacy here.

But the army conquering Europe was the imperial army, and it was an imperial effort. Chengizz Khan had chosen his son Ogedei as his successor because he was sure that his good son would fulfill his last will - to conquer Ulus for Jouchi bloodline. And good son he was - Ogedei was sincerely faithful to his father's orders.

But no one else cared about conquering land for the Jouchids, no other Houses. So with Ogedei out of the picture the Western imperial campaign is over.

Batu Khan cannot go independent as it was too early for that, the Mongols were not "ready" to disintegrate. Not yet.
The Chengizzid Princes from different Houses were carefully placed in this Western Army together with "old guard" non-Chengizzid generals who were faithful to the idea of the united Mongol World Empire.
The ethnic Mongol troops who were the natural core of the army were sent West just for some time and they were sure that they were to return home to Mongolia proper (at least the majority of them).

If Batu Khan had been chosen the next great Universal Khaan then, in this case Europe would have had zero chance to be spared - it would have been doomed actually. But that is almost impossible. Everybody in Mongolia knew that the first son of Chengizz Khan, Jouchi, was not probably his biological son. Which was OK for his bloodline inheriting an Ulus of their own, but being the Universal Khaan...
No, it seems Batu Khan did not qualify.

So, the earlier Ogedei dies the more fucked is Batu Khan and the Golden Horde in general. And the safer is Europe.
 
Everybody in Mongolia knew that the first son of Chengizz Khan, Jouchi, was not probably his biological son. Which was OK for his bloodline inheriting an Ulus of their own, but being the Universal Khaan...
No, it seems Batu Khan did not qualify.

And yet Jochi had enough support during his own fathers reign to try break off and quasi-rebel. So i think a far amount of people would've supported his descendants reign as Great Khan.
Gotta remember that although some questioned his heritage, namely his brother Chagatai, Genghis himself stated Jochi was his son. The only reason he never made him his successor was because he knew that if he did it would tear the Mongol Empire apart as, as established, not everyone though he was (back to Chagatai, who actually started he never would've followed Jochi). So Ogedei was made his heir (Tolui would've being successor, being the youngest son in tradition, but was too young.)
So saying everyone probably thought Jochi wasn't Genghis' son is wrong, but it would've defiantly caused a massive blow out in the Empire, but they may have supported his descendents, depending on what they offered and how the Kurlutai was handled.
 
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So how does this affect Hungary, Poland and Russia?

As I said if Ogedei dies before conquering Russia - Russia is spared; if Ogedei dies before conquering Hungary - Hungary is spared; the same goes for Poland.

If you mean "what if Hungary, Poland and Russia - all of them spared"?

Well, Hungary and Poland would get less devastated, especially Hungary; and as a result they would play a more important role in European politics.
Having the Golden Horde farther East, less powerful and less aggressive would help as well.

As for Russia...
First thing - the Golden Horde would be an immediate neighbor and Russia will be the most natural target for its' aggression.
But I am pretty sure Russian principalities would keep their independence, at least most of them; some might get vassilized for some time.
The Golden Horde would not have a second chance to get the imperial Mongol army consisting of the ethnic Mongols and with best imperial generals; what Ulus of Jouchi would have would be the Cumans under the Mongol leadership - they would not probably repeat the miraculous winter conquest of Russia of OTL, no they would not.

And that would open a huge can of big fat butterflies.
Russia with Mongol domination and Russia without are two very different polities.
Most probably Lithuania and Poland would not have a lucky chance to expand into the Rurikid domain, I guess.
But Russia would be still cut out from Constantinople Patriarchate by the Golden Horde; in this ATL the Russians wouldn't be together with the Mongols fighting the Catholic West, the Russians would be fighting against the Mongols probably Russian principalities would be allying with some Catholic countries. And thus Russia would get closer to the Western Christianity.
Whatever happens Europe would be much different...
 
So how does this affect Hungary, Poland and Russia?
Poland most probably reunites in mid to late 13 century under Silesian Piasts; the most obvious result would be the Silesian lands staying inside Polish realm, also united Poland would not allow the Teutonic Knights to become the beast they had in otl.
 
Gotta remember that although some questioned his heritage, namely his brother Chagatai, Genghis himself stated Jochi was his son.
The point is that Genghis Khan himself stating that Jouchi was his son proves that Genghis Khan was a good man. Genghis Khan treating Jouchi real good all his life and even showing him and his sons some preference makes Genghis Khan even better.
But that did not prove that Jouchi was his biological son.
After wedding Temujin had sex with his young wife a couple of nights; after that she was stolen and the other guy had sex with her hereafter. In nine months Jouchi was born.
No one knows for sure who was a biological father of Jouchi, that is the point.


So saying everyone probably thought Jochi wasn't Genghis' son is wrong, but it would've defiantly caused a massive blow out in the Empire, but they may have supported his descendents, depending on what they offered and how the Kurlutai was handled.
I have to admit, that it is a very controversial matter.
But you see the Kuriltai is not gathering of the Chengizzids only, it is gathering of the Borjigin clan (which is much more numerous) and some of the Borjigins might think that Chengizz Khan stating that Jouchi was his son is a respected and even admirable deed. But that was his personal, family matter.
But the Great Universal Khaan is the head of the Borjigin Clan, first and foremost; and electing a man of questionable heritage as such might be... inappropriate.


And yet Jochi had enough support during his own fathers reign to try break off and quasi-rebel. So i think a far amount of people would've supported his descendants reign as Great Khan.
As I previously said all his life Chengizz Khan showed remarkable preference to Jouchi (probably to avoid any questions about his heritage; and probably feeling a personal guilt before him and his mother for letting this kidnapping happened).
This preference arose jealousy among other sons of Chengis Khan.
That envy was worsened by the fact, that Jouchi was the best general among all the Chengizzids/Borjigins; no doubt about it, he had a great experience of independent successful campaigning.

That is the reason and source of all these dirty rumors about Jouchi's being disloyal to Chengizz Khan. Majority of the modern historians think that this has nothing to do with reality.
I tend to agree with the modern researchers:
You see, you don't send the imperial army after your death to conquer a huge Ulus for the bloodline of your "treacherous disloyal" son, Jouchi. No, you don't. It is inconsistent with the Mongol mentality - the sons are held responsible for what their father did.
 
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