WI of Mary of Burgundy dies in childbirth?

Vitruvius

Donor
So, just make things clearer, here is an idea of how the succession could have gone:

1478 - Mary of Burgundy dies in childbirth alongside her child (who would be Philip the Handsome). Initially Maximilian tries to keep the territories under his control, but fails.

Guelders and Zutphen recognize the young Charles of Egmond as their ruler. The rest of the Burgundian territories are disputed between John II, Count of Nevers and John I of Cleves, with Louis XI of France pressing for lands too.

John II of Nevers would be the claimant under Salic Law. However, few territories followed it, and with his eldest daughter and heir already married to John I of Cleves, he accepts a deal where he gets the Duchy of Burgundy, Artois and Flanders, but they all should be given to France once he dies. All the rest goes to John I of Cleves.

1481 - Both Louis XI and John I of Cleves die, and John II of Nevers denounce the earlier treaty. The conflict gets mixed with the Mad War. Eventually he is forced to accept the arrangement made.

1491 - John II of Nevers die. His territories are annexed by France. But when Charles VIII starts his Italian Wars John II of Cleves offers the Franche Comte to the French king in exchange for Flanders and an alliance during the conflict. The proposal is accepted.

Is it likely?

Looks good. I think Louis may take Picardy and the Somme towns immediately though. Louis had seized them from Charles the Bold repeatedly and he's likely to want some payment 'up front' for agreeing to the Cleves-Nevers compromise. I also wonder whether France would ever give up Flanders once they have it, its just so valuable. So perhaps the Flanders/Franche-Comte swap is agreed to before Nevers dies. I guess the real question is what is John of Nevers trying to gain by denouncing the Treaty during the Mad War, more territory for himself at the expense of Cleves? If so why would France care about that, could mean more for them when he dies. Or is he trying to secure the inheritance of his daughter Elisabeth? That would warrant rebellion against the French and may lead to a settlement regarding Flanders. There's also his second daughter Charlotte to contend with who in OTL brought Rethel to her husband. She's much younger than Elisabeth and unmarried so she may be used as a pawn during the conflicts of the Mad War as she becomes a potentially wealthy heiress should the Treaty be set aside in her favor. Perhaps she even makes a better bride for Charles VIII if it means she secures Nevers, Artois, Rethel and Burgundy for him.

Considering Guelders, seems like John of Cleves will at least try to claim it. Ironically Charles of Guelders may actually ally with Maximilian if Max pledges him all of Guelders. On the other hand he might be able to cut a deal if John of Cleves' son John II married Charles' sister Philippa, perhaps with upper Guelders as her dowry. She was the OTL wife of Rene II but not until '85.

And I like the map, though Cleves also controls Mark too giving their domains a bit more reach into Westphalia. Thus I think this independent Netherlands will probably be focused on expansion north and east into Frisia and Westphalia.
 
Looks good. I think Louis may take Picardy and the Somme towns immediately though. Louis had seized them from Charles the Bold repeatedly and he's likely to want some payment 'up front' for agreeing to the Cleves-Nevers compromise. I also wonder whether France would ever give up Flanders once they have it, its just so valuable.

yes, you're right. Louis XI wouldn't lose time and invade Flanders as quick as possible when he sees that Maximilian can't hold it.

I guess the real question is what is John of Nevers trying to gain by denouncing the Treaty during the Mad War, more territory for himself at the expense of Cleves? If so why would France care about that, could mean more for them when he dies. Or is he trying to secure the inheritance of his daughter Elisabeth? That would warrant rebellion against the French and may lead to a settlement regarding Flanders.

I thought the second option actually, that John II of Nevers would want to secure that his lands would fall to his descendents, and not be given to the French Crown. Of course, if Louis XI had taken the lands in 1478 when Mary the Rich dies then now he could join the Mad War in order to retake the lands he believes belong to him.

There's also his second daughter Charlotte to contend with who in OTL brought Rethel to her husband. She's much younger than Elisabeth and unmarried so she may be used as a pawn during the conflicts of the Mad War as she becomes a potentially wealthy heiress should the Treaty be set aside in her favor. Perhaps she even makes a better bride for Charles VIII if it means she secures Nevers, Artois, Rethel and Burgundy for him.

Hmm, that is possible, but if Francis II of Brittany still dies on schedule and Anne is his heir then she would be a much bigger target for Charles VIII than Charlotte. BTW, now that the Habsburgs are much weaker, how would fare Francis II against the Valois?

Considering Guelders, seems like John of Cleves will at least try to claim it. Ironically Charles of Guelders may actually ally with Maximilian if Max pledges him all of Guelders. On the other hand he might be able to cut a deal if John of Cleves' son John II married Charles' sister Philippa, perhaps with upper Guelders as her dowry. She was the OTL wife of Rene II but not until '85.

I like the idea of the deal. Probably John of Cleves would have to secure his own territories first (and deal with both French and Maximilian's ambitions) before trying to annex Guelders. And both John II and Philippa would be available to marriage, so that's a good idea indeed.

And I like the map, though Cleves also controls Mark too giving their domains a bit more reach into Westphalia. Thus I think this independent Netherlands will probably be focused on expansion north and east into Frisia and Westphalia.
Thanks, I'll make the corrections. So here other idea of how things would go in 1478:

bourgondie1.gif
 

Vitruvius

Donor
Sounds good. The House of La Marck in a single generation becomes one of the most powerful in northern Europe.

In reference to Francis of Brittany I assume he fairs about the same. The two Johns II (of Cleves and of Nevers) can together become and analogue for Maximilian's participation in the Mad War. As you've set it up I'm guessing they invade Flanders and occupy it while Francis is rebelling in the west. And they stand a good chance of holding it.

I still wonder who Charlotte marries. If she marries a French noble during the Mad War, that person could be made heir to Burgundy/Nevers if they're poweful enough to force the hand of the French King/Regent. Maybe its even OTL's John d'Albret (first cousin of Alain d'Albret whose leading the forces in Brittany) and he picks up just some scraps like Rethel or Eu. But another interesting idea would be if she was forced to marry Charles, Count of Clermont, son of Peter II of Bourbon, Regent of France. Perhaps as part of a deal conceding Flanders to Cleves. Peter spent a great deal of the Regency trying to build up a personal domain for himself. This would set the main branch of the Bourbon dynasty up nicely with a huge swath of central France (La Marche, Bourbon, parts of Auvergne, Forez, Carlades, Nevers, Burgundy, Rethel, Eu, Gien). Just a thought, it would certainly weaken the French King, trading one powerful house (Burgundy) for another (Bourbon) a few years down.
 
Sounds good. The House of La Marck in a single generation becomes one of the most powerful in northern Europe.

In reference to Francis of Brittany I assume he fairs about the same. The two Johns II (of Cleves and of Nevers) can together become and analogue for Maximilian's participation in the Mad War. As you've set it up I'm guessing they invade Flanders and occupy it while Francis is rebelling in the west. And they stand a good chance of holding it.

I think it's a very likely outcome, especially if combined with a deal regarding the marriage of Charlotte of Nevers with Charles of Clermont. However, IOTL her marriage to John d'Albret happened in the middle of the Mad War, so her father might still arrange to her a husband connected with the rebels. Maybe René II, Duke of Lorraine, especially if his OTL wife Philippa of Guelders is married (as suggested before) to John II of Cleves.
Charlotte would be a bit too young to René, he would need to wait some years to consumate the marriage but in the other hand it would give him nice territories close to Lorraine (Franche Comte, Burgundy, Rethel, Nevers, Charolais). I think it would be a deal that René might accept.

Also, assuming that ITTL Francis of Brittany lives longer (his death was caused by an accident that probably is butterflied) and that Maximilian isn't an option anymore, who could he choose to be Anne's wife ITTL?
 

Vitruvius

Donor
Depends on how the Mad War ends. OTL the Treaty of Verger ensured Breton vassalage to France and forced Francis to seek Royal consent for Anne's marriage. Unless the rebel party does considerably better ITTL then that or some similar agreement will still be a millstone around his neck. He may be able to evade marrying her to Charles VIII but if he tries Alain d'Albret or Louis d'Orleans it will mean another invasion of the Duchy. If he doesn't marry Charlotte Charles of Clermont would be the best -peaceful- way to secure independence as the Bourbons would be in the Kings favor as his former tutors/regents.

Cleves and Nevers could get involved again, and try to arrange a marriage of John II's elder brother Englebert of Cleves with Anne, but it would mean war or course. Perhaps its just the Mad War redux, with Louis d'Orleans trying again to marry her and Nevers and Cleves getting involved on the side of the rebels out of their own interests (overturning that pesky partition agreement). So basically both Anne, Charlotte, Charles of Clermont and Charles VIII's marriages will be decided or at least guided by the outcome of the Mad War.

As for Rene II, since you brought it up, if he wanted to side with Cleves and the rebels, John II has a sister, Marie, whom he could marry. It would be very interesting if he went on his campaign to Naples in '88 like he planned OTL. Not because he'd necessarily succeed, possible but unlikely, but because if he died trying his sister would become his heir and I believe she's now married to Maximilian, giving him claim to Lorraine, Naples and Provence.
 
As for Rene II, since you brought it up, if he wanted to side with Cleves and the rebels, John II has a sister, Marie, whom he could marry. It would be very interesting if he went on his campaign to Naples in '88 like he planned OTL. Not because he'd necessarily succeed, possible but unlikely, but because if he died trying his sister would become his heir and I believe she's now married to Maximilian, giving him claim to Lorraine, Naples and Provence.

So the Habsburgs lose Burgundy but gain a claim to Naples? That would be very interesting, considering that Ferdinand II of Aragon, who would be until then an ally, also had his own projects regarding Southern Italy, and so Charles VIII of France. Things would become very messy there. ;)
 
As for Rene II, since you brought it up, if he wanted to side with Cleves and the rebels, John II has a sister, Marie, whom he could marry. It would be very interesting if he went on his campaign to Naples in '88 like he planned OTL. Not because he'd necessarily succeed, possible but unlikely, but because if he died trying his sister would become his heir and I believe she's now married to Maximilian, giving him claim to Lorraine, Naples and Provence.

After thinking a bit better about this, probably Rene's expedition to Naples is too unlikely to happen. He was stopped by Charles VIII, who wanted to do the invasion himself, and I doubt the king would allow it ITTL too. Of course, you can find other ways to have him die and give Lorraine to the Habsburgs. Or ITOH he makes the invasion of Naples supported by Maximilian, but I'm affraid it would rather turn into a war with Charles VIII that would be fought mainly in France rather than Italy.
 
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