WI: Oda Nobunaga unified Japan

[Sian]

as for the Japanese Infrastructure ... It is generally said that in the early 1800's it would cost just as much transporting goods 50 miles on land, as it would cost transporting goods from Europe to Nagasaki.

So that is probably the single most limiting factor in getting an early IR in Japan.

 

[katchen]

And the Oda could always pirate a European style ship to copy, make it disappear to a remote island such as Sado, disperse the crew so that they could learn Japanese and their brains could be picked and go from there. And send emissaries--spies--to European courts. Spain's and Portugals, if none else are available. And make sailors who appear to speak different langauages than Portuguese disappear. Anything for a different and unbiased perspective on Europe.
(Yes, I got the idea from James Clavell's Shogun. Toranaga to Anjin-san, parahrasing the Borg" You will be assimilated. Resistance is futile!")
European style ships are very valuable for Oda Nobunaga, as you have pointed out. Because they are the answer to Japan's isolation. And because properly trained to man them, they can carry Nobunaga's samurai to the lands of the majority of Japan's daimyo without passing through the territory of other daimyo. That is revolutionary. In fact, that could very well be the POD that enables Oda Nobunaga to unify Japan, and go on to reward Daimyo with territory in places such as the Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan and Ezo and then maybe Tondo before the Spanish even get there. If the Spanish can conquer Lapu-Lapu, Oda Nobunaga surely can.
In doing this, Oda Nobunaga is modifying Japan's bushido tradition into a naval tradition, similar to Great Britain's Royal Navy. As ships become Japan's weapons of war, ships become part of Japan's weapons of the warrior. And seamanship and gunnery (and for the time being, archery --and rocketry, which the Japanese know from the Chinese and which can set enemy vessels rigging and powder afire from a distance ), part of bushido. The big difference is that ships must be crewed cooperatively . A ships crew must fight as a unit or all die when the ship sinks be the enemy human, the weather or hunger, thirst or scurvy.
I think this is one of those cases in which one thing follows upon another without the man initiating the changes, (in this case Oda Nobunaga) being aware of where this is all leading.

 

[Space Oddity]

I don't think there is the evidence that Nobunaga would have indulged in foreign adventures, or to the same degree as Hideyoshi did.

You mean aside from the fact that Nobunaga was the guy who first cooked up the entire 'invade China through Korea' scheme, right?

 

[katchen]

Did he,now? Things may look a bit different if he gets a Navy.

 

[Space Oddity]

Did he,now? Things may look a bit different if he gets a Navy.

And he will get this navy, how? And please do not point me in the direction of your previous suggestion, as I had a sarcastic rejoinder involving Gatling guns and baby carriages that I had to work hard to repress.

I sometimes think that Nobunaga and Hideyoshi are this site's 16th century Japanese equivalents of Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson respectively. The first becomes a superhuman being incapable of error, with all his bothersome foibles either taken away or turned into lovable little flaws. The second has every flaw exaggerated, every virtue expunged, to create a hate figure made of fail. Whoever unified Japan was probably going to invade Korea thereafter--or if he didn't live long enough, have that taken up by his heirs. And that invasion would ultimately not go well. It may not happen exactly the same--but it would likely prove remarkably similar.

 

[Herzen's love-child]

You mean aside from the fact that Nobunaga was the guy who first cooked up the entire 'invade China through Korea' scheme, right?

Did he really seriously entertain launching it? Never mind that Hidyoshi claimed he was inspired by N. Perhaps after uniting Japan N. would have turned his considerable energies overseas. But as it was, unification was unfinished business and his priority. Smart ruthless boy.

 

[Herzen's love-child]

And he will get this navy, how? And please do not point me in the direction of your previous suggestion, as I had a sarcastic rejoinder involving Gatling guns and baby carriages that I had to work hard to repress.

I sometimes think that Nobunaga and Hideyoshi are this site's 16th century Japanese equivalents of Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson respectively. The first becomes a superhuman being incapable of error, with all his bothersome foibles either taken away or turned into lovable little flaws. The second has every flaw exaggerated, every virtue expunged, to create a hate figure made of fail. Whoever unified Japan was probably going to invade Korea thereafter--or if he didn't live long enough, have that taken up by his heirs. And that invasion would ultimately not go well. It may not happen exactly the same--but it would likely prove remarkably similar.

Some people are blind to Hideyoshi's very real strengths and talents. Iyesu's ultimate victory was on the shoulders of his 2 equally great fore-runners.
I'm less convinced that a Korean invasion was inevitable no matter who was at the helm.

 

[Space Oddity]

Some people are blind to Hideyoshi's very real strengths and talents. Iyesu's ultimate victory was on the shoulders of his 2 equally great fore-runners.
I'm less convinced that a Korean invasion was inevitable no matter who was at the helm.

Whoever unites Japan heads a nation with a large army that requires justifying, a warrior mythos that causes them to view their neighbors as pushovers, and a long-standing interest in Korea--and China as well for that matter. 'Inevitable' may be a bit strong but 'exceedingly likely' is right on the nose.

 

[Thespitron 6000]

Whoever unites Japan heads a nation with a large army that requires justifying, a warrior mythos that causes them to view their neighbors as pushovers, and a long-standing interest in Korea--and China as well for that matter. 'Inevitable' may be a bit strong but 'exceedingly likely' is right on the nose.

Yes, they're definitely going to go somewhere; foreign adventuring is an excellent way to bleed off excess martial energy immediately following a unification (cf. Spain, 1492).

 

[Space Oddity]

Yes, they're definitely going to go somewhere; foreign adventuring is an excellent way to bleed off excess martial energy immediately following a unification (cf. Spain, 1492).

Yes, the Italians and North Africans would definitely agree with you. But then, Spain always had a long-standing interest in both of them that it was now free to follow more fully.

Or did you mean the New World, which saw a lot less investment of men and treasure and was basically history's most incredible lottery win?

 

[Herzen's love-child]

Yes, they're definitely going to go somewhere; foreign adventuring is an excellent way to bleed off excess martial energy immediately following a unification (cf. Spain, 1492).

And yet, when final unification was achieved what did the Tokugawa do?

 

[Thespitron 6000]

Yes, the Italians and North Africans would definitely agree with you. But then, Spain always had a long-standing interest in both of them that it was now free to follow more fully.

Or did you mean the New World, which saw a lot less investment of men and treasure and was basically history's most incredible lottery win?

Both, pretty much. The Spaniards were more or less looking for somebody to fight, and they, as you said, got lucky against a seemingly tough opponent that turned out to have a glass jaw.

 

[Space Oddity]

And yet, when final unification was achieved what did the Tokaguwa do?

The Tokagawa had the failed Korean invasion and problems with the Christians to serve as justifications for turning inwards. A successful Oda Regency would lack these things.

At least--at first.

Both, pretty much. The Spaniards were more or less looking for somebody to fight, and they, as you said, got lucky against a seemingly tough opponent that turned out to have a glass jaw.

But my point, Thespi, is that Spain didn't splurge almost exclusively on exciting new things, despite the popular perspective--it spent most of its newfound wealth and influence chasing the old dreams. Japan will almost certainly do the same--and Korea and China are the old dreams.

And it will not go well.

 

[Thespitron 6000]

But my point, Thespi, is that Spain didn't splurge almost exclusively on exciting new things, despite the popular perspective--it spent most of its newfound wealth and influence chasing the old dreams. Japan will almost certainly do the same--and Korea and China are the old dreams.

I didn't say they wouldn't. I'm in agreement with you.

 

[zert]

If the Japanese still fail in Korea under Oda to some degree, might they still be able to hold onto enclaves and city states? If the Manchu's had been sped up their fights to the same time as the Japanese were going at Korea, might this have allowed the Japanese better luck in their Korean adventures? Might also a Japan in possession of ocean going ships try to contest the Philippines from the Spanish and then have this be an outlet for their extra soldiers and warlords?

 

[democracy101]

If the Japanese still fail in Korea under Oda to some degree, might they still be able to hold onto enclaves and city states? If the Manchu's had been sped up their fights to the same time as the Japanese were going at Korea, might this have allowed the Japanese better luck in their Korean adventures?

Highly unlikely. The Jurchen (which became the Manchu in 1635, and could still be referred to as the "Jurchen" in an alternate scenario due to butterflies) managed to consolidate under Nurhaci by taking advantage of the chaos and aftermath of the Imjin War, but it was not until 1616 that the (Later) Jin Dynasty was proclaimed, and it was only in 1619 that the tribes were finally unified. Although Joseon continued to retain tens of thousands of soldiers along the northern border, it never sent more than a few thousand troops north against the Jurchen (with one exception under Sejong, when it equipped 15,000 troops), suggesting that they were disorganized enough to sufficiently handle a few minor raids here and there. As a result, assuming that the Imjin War in the south went as it did IOTL, if any Jurchen tribe attempted to strike south offensively, there would be the risk of another faction taking over while the troops were absent, further increasing tension and discord among the Jurchen. If the Imjin War occurred later, though, the Ming and Joseon would have been more focused on confronting the Jurchen and leaving them disunited, as the Japanese would not have distracted them and severely depleted resources.

It's also worth noting that it was not until 1627 that Hong Taiji decided to invade Joseon, and the Manchus only managed to break through the Great Wall in 1644 despite numerous attempts beforehand, suggesting that consolidation had been a pressing issue before then, as hasty actions could have eventually led to devastating counterattacks.

 

[zert]

Thanks for the extra background and correcting my information. Well I look forward to the next chapter when you have time.

 

[katchen]

Yes, they're definitely going to go somewhere; foreign adventuring is an excellent way to bleed off excess martial energy immediately following a unification (cf. Spain, 1492).

Spain 1492 AND Manchuria 1627.
But as far as Japan is concerned, my question is, would having a navy change Oda Nobunaga's view of what is a good target for Japan's martial energy?
I suggest that it might.
When Oda Nobunaga suggested reaching China via Korea, Japan DIDN"T have a navy to speak of, just a bunch of supply ships, as Admiral Yi proved to the Japanese. And China is HUGE! And far from the sea. Oda Nobunaga's daimyo and Red Seal captains will soon tell him that there are much easier pickings out there.
Like how about getting to the Philippines before the Spanish. Or those "Spice Islands" the Portugeezu are so interested in. All those Muslim Sultanates. And Taiwan. Or Cambodia or Siam, since they seem to be persecuting Japanese settlers. They're all within reach of a Japanese fleet. And as far away as those places are, ships can actually sail to those places in less time than a troop needs to travel to parts of China by land.
Or if he wants to conquer some place adjacent to the Middle Kingdom, what about bypassing Korea for now and conquering the Jurchen.

 

[kwonphilip]

Spain 1492 AND Manchuria 1627.
But as far as Japan is concerned, my question is, would having a navy change Oda Nobunaga's view of what is a good target for Japan's martial energy?
I suggest that it might.
When Oda Nobunaga suggested reaching China via Korea, Japan DIDN"T have a navy to speak of, just a bunch of supply ships, as Admiral Yi proved to the Japanese. And China is HUGE! And far from the sea. Oda Nobunaga's daimyo and Red Seal captains will soon tell him that there are much easier pickings out there.
Like how about getting to the Philippines before the Spanish. Or those "Spice Islands" the Portugeezu are so interested in. All those Muslim Sultanates. And Taiwan. Or Cambodia or Siam, since they seem to be persecuting Japanese settlers. They're all within reach of a Japanese fleet. And as far away as those places are, ships can actually sail to those places in less time than a troop needs to travel to parts of China by land.
Or if he wants to conquer some place adjacent to the Middle Kingdom, what about bypassing Korea for now and conquering the Jurchen.

My knowledge is not very good of the region but wouldn't invading the Jurchens bring them against the Ming and Joseon since they occasionally did pay tribute to the two nations?

 

[democracy101]

Thanks for the extra background and correcting my information. Well I look forward to the next chapter when you have time.

No problem. If you're referring to my TL, thanks for the compliment.

When Oda Nobunaga suggested reaching China via Korea, Japan DIDN"T have a navy to speak of, just a bunch of supply ships, as Admiral Yi proved to the Japanese. And China is HUGE! And far from the sea. Oda Nobunaga's daimyo and Red Seal captains will soon tell him that there are much easier pickings out there.

If Japan somehow manages to focus on building a bigger navy, they'll need even more supply ships, eventually leading them to focus much less on the army if resources are diverted to constructing more ships. IOTL, the Japanese were tied down in disparate regions by numerous regional guerrillas, while China will eventually interfere in order to aid its struggling tributary, so the invaders are going to have a much more difficult time fighting on land. In addition, the Korean naval strategy consistently focused on distracting the Japanese by cutting off supply lines or directing them elsewhere, rather than directly confronting the main navy, so the naval battles generally wouldn't be significantly affected.

Or if he wants to conquer some place adjacent to the Middle Kingdom, what about bypassing Korea for now and conquering the Jurchen.

This is essentially impossible. Given that the Imjin War occurred because Korea flatly refused to let the Japanese pass through in order to attack China, a land route is basically inconceivable. The only other alternative is attacking what is now Sakhalin or Eastern Manchuria in order to reach the Jurchen, assuming that they can bypass the Ainu, but would be a nightmare in logistical terms. If the Japanese send a relatively small force, there's an extremely high chance that they'll be eventually surrounded by the Jurchen, given that they tended to be more mobile and were more used to the terrain. On the other hand, if they send a relatively large army, the vast majority are eventually going to starve to death due to a severe lack of suitable fortresses (Japan conquered well over 100 within Korea before retreating), not to mention that the climate would be unbearable during the winter. Regardless of the situation, Manchuria isn't worth holding compared to China or Korea, given a smaller population and less trading routes, while the latter two will almost certainly attempt to fight a proxy war if troops stray into Ming or Joseon territory, and might even contemplate invading Kyushu, which would not end well for everyone involved.

My knowledge is not very good of the region but wouldn't invading the Jurchens bring them against the Ming and Joseon since they occasionally did pay tribute to the two nations?

This too.