WI: Oda Nobunaga Survives?

I've been diving into Japanese history alot in recent months (not to mention playing alot more Total War: Shogun II with mods) and I had a curious thought. What if Oda Nobunaga did not die at Honno-ji at the hands of the traitor Akechi Mitsuhide?

At the moment i'm rifling through history, increasing my understanding Sengoku period Japanese culture and society and anything else to make, at face value, as authentic a alternate timeline as possible.
 
I've been diving into Japanese history alot in recent months (not to mention playing alot more Total War: Shogun II with mods) and I had a curious thought. What if Oda Nobunaga did not die at Honno-ji at the hands of the traitor Akechi Mitsuhide?

At the moment i'm rifling through history, increasing my understanding Sengoku period Japanese culture and society and anything else to make, at face value, as authentic a alternate timeline as possible.

It depends on how Nobunaga decides to deal with the rest of Japan, does he use brute force or diplomacy with the lesser clans. By this point, the only clans with any real power were the Mori of Chugoku which Nobunaga was in the process of invading. The Chosokabe of Tosa holds most of the island of Shikoku and the Shimazu are just starting to expand in the island of Kyushu. Westward in the Kanto plains only the Hojo is still powerful, with the northeast part of Japan quite divided. Even with the resulting Oda Civil War Hideyoshi managed to unite Japan in just 10 years, so Nobunaga could do it faster.

The big questions you would have to answer is what does Japan look like under an Oda Shogunate, provided Nobunaga chooses to take the title. What is done with the very divided nature of Japan, Nobunaga has united the land before any like the sword hunts and latter stratification of Japanese society. Also, try and do what you can to sort out the popular culture of the period, and see what is real or false about it.
 

Kaze

Banned
Take Hideyoshi's reign as shogun as a good start for his reign as Shogun (if he even takes the title). But unlike Hideyoshi, Nobunaga would have the foresight to not let his succession end up into the chaos of the Five Elders or the eventual Battle of Sekigahara
 
Take Hideyoshi's reign as shogun as a good start for his reign as Shogun (if he even takes the title). But unlike Hideyoshi, Nobunaga would have the foresight to not let his succession end up into the chaos of the Five Elders or the eventual Battle of Sekigahara
well if nobunaga survives means all his sons survives to wich mean a more stabel japan
 
Wasn't the invasion of Korea Nobunaga's plan?

It depends, Nobunaga to me seems more a victim of historiography, sure he was iconoclastic, but I'm not too sure if it was a latter invention or something taken out of context. Nobunaga, unlike Hideyoshi, could claim to be Shogun, so there would be no need to resort to force against other countries.

Take Hideyoshi's reign as shogun as a good start for his reign as Shogun (if he even takes the title). But unlike Hideyoshi, Nobunaga would have the foresight to not let his succession end up into the chaos of the Five Elders or the eventual Battle of Sekigahara

I don't think you could do that. Hideyoshi's position was always fundamentally weak, in order to gain power he had to always back somebody else, after Nobunaga died he had to back one of Nobunaga's sons in a succession dispute, which came about because Honnoji not also killed Nobunaga, but much more importantly his eldest son and presumed heir Nobutada was also killed as well. Hideyoshi was also less ruthless and left several powerful clans in such as the Mori and Tokugawa even giving them land in Kanto, also Hideyoshi needed more support because he had already fought and killed many of his former comrades in the Oda clan. Even after everything Hideyoshi could never become Shogun and remained a regent, and his attempts to secure the Toyotomi clan ended in failure, killing the one relative who could have ensured that the Toyotomi could last more than a generation.

An Oda clan that avoids Honnoji is in a much stronger position Hideyoshi can only dream of, Japan is just waiting for Nobunaga to seize it and for Nobutada to take over, there's no need for negotiations or for isolation.
 
My thoughts from a few years back:
Nobunaga may not have gone to the socially immobilizing lengths Hideyoshi and the Tokugawa went to OTL to ensure a peaceful realm (rigid statuses, tying peasants to the land, making things harder for merchants, etc);in the aftermath of the Sengoku Jidai, it wasn't out of the question for Japan to go through a kind of "capitalist revolution" (precursor to industrial revolution), advancing the country and the world by who knows how much. Alas, the desire for peace and stability understandably led to a conservative turn, for better or worse.
Well like I said, I completely understand the reasoning behind the style of government implemented by the Tokugawa shogunate. I'm only saying that, particularly at the dawn of Japanese unification, it was not the only feasible way to bind the country together, establish peace, and preserve order. Religious toleration* does not invariably lead to chaos; allowing peasants to move about (provided they're still disarmed) may lead to fewer taxes in the short term, but allow for more efficient agriculture and growth in the longer term;** and even if policies like forbidding foreign travel are based on the desire to keep peace, they did isolate Japan (with all the problems that entailed) and can quite reasonably be seen as an overreaction (if an understandable one).

So yes, Oda can create a different solution to this, and in some ways his reforms, would have to resemble Hideyoshi's -- he's still going to want (and need) to conduct a census, collect taxes, and disarm the population, for example. But more aggressively conservative policies like tying the peasants to the land, restricting foreign travel, or clamping down on foreigners and Christianity -- policies like those boiled down to trading off future prospects for modest immediate gains or risk curbing. A less cautiously minded shogun may well have found these less appealing.

It would also help a huge deal if the ultimate solution to "excess" samurai got Japan something more than a disastrous war in Korea; better still if they can be used to establish successful *colonies* for Japan, which also helps with the above problems. (For example, Japan may feel less need for taking drastic measures against "idle" peasants if they have a convenient place to send them.)

*not the modern liberal idea of "freedom of conscience", but the more timeless idea that persecution is generally more trouble than it's worth
**and no, this analysis wasn't invented by Adam Smith
 
My thoughts from a few years back:

Hm. How would an Oda shogunate respond to, say, the Eighty Years' War in the south? Would they take the side of the Dutch, or the Spanish, or just exploit weaknesses on both sides?

Maybe the Oda shoguns could establish sellsword companies sailing all across the seas of the south, fighting wars where they are in demand? And maybe, said companies would intervene in things like the collapse of the Ming, sending China into an age of warlords instead of a seeming immediate replacement by Nurhaci's heirs?
 
My thoughts from a few years back:

Nobunaga would not have the weaknesses of Hideyoshi or Ieyasu, so no need for their stringency or conservative attitudes domestically, and there is a colonial system for Japan to work from. The only question is what would be the motivation for colonies? The Spanish have their teeth sunk into the Philippines, colonizing Taiwan could be tedious unless clans are sent there or encouraged to do so.
 
Nobunaga would not have the weaknesses of Hideyoshi or Ieyasu, so no need for their stringency or conservative attitudes domestically, and there is a colonial system for Japan to work from. The only question is what would be the motivation for colonies? The Spanish have their teeth sunk into the Philippines, colonizing Taiwan could be tedious unless clans are sent there or encouraged to do so.

Well obviously you have to have something for the now-jobless men with weapons to do.

Or maybe Nobunaga and Nobutada could set up mercenary companies, perhaps?
 
If i'm not mistaken, Nobunaga was far more tolerant towards Christians than Hideyoshi.
Could we see less anti-Christian persecution during his government? Could one of his descendants even end up pulling a Constantine in the future in case the newly introduced faith grows big enough?
 
If i'm not mistaken, Nobunaga was far more tolerant towards Christians than Hideyoshi.
Could we see less anti-Christian persecution during his government? Could one of his descendants even end up pulling a Constantine in the future in case the newly introduced faith grows big enough?
I don't see that too much. The only reason Nobunaga tolerated it was because he wanted to get new weapons and was too busy fighting. We don't know what will happen after he takes control of Japan.
 
Nobunaga would not have the weaknesses of Hideyoshi or Ieyasu, so no need for their stringency or conservative attitudes domestically, and there is a colonial system for Japan to work from. The only question is what would be the motivation for colonies? The Spanish have their teeth sunk into the Philippines, colonizing Taiwan could be tedious unless clans are sent there or encouraged to do so.
If it's mainly a matter of finding somewhere to put all these restless young me, I do wonder if Hokkaido might suffice? That could actually have more interesting implications than would first seem, particularly if it leads to earlier settlement of the northern part of said island (which in turn possibly even leads to Japanese fishing/whaling/otter-killing activity around the Kuril Islands, Kamchacta Peninsula, Aleutian Islands, et el before the Russians arrive... again, possibly).
 
Well obviously you have to have something for the now-jobless men with weapons to do.

Or maybe Nobunaga and Nobutada could set up mercenary companies, perhaps?

I mean I know I'm going down that route, but I still wonder where could they go? Korea and China could see them in conflicts with the Jurchen, although there is always the possibility for sellswords in the Southeast, granted I'll leave organization up to the OP.

If i'm not mistaken, Nobunaga was far more tolerant towards Christians than Hideyoshi.
Could we see less anti-Christian persecution during his government? Could one of his descendants even end up pulling a Constantine in the future in case the newly introduced faith grows big enough?

Unlikely Christianity would be a problem if they ever gained the power the Ikko Ikki did, the Christians were useful for their guns and to disrupt the establishment of Buddhist and Shinto priests but Nobunaga would not have that much use for them, as both already happened by Nobunaga's death. It is unknown how much of Nobunaga's personality is real or made up, he was quite eccentric but his son Nobutada might have been "normal".

If it's mainly a matter of finding somewhere to put all these restless young me, I do wonder if Hokkaido might suffice? That could actually have more interesting implications than would first seem, particularly if it leads to earlier settlement of the northern part of said island (which in turn possibly even leads to Japanese fishing/whaling/otter-killing activity around the Kuril Islands, Kamchacta Peninsula, Aleutian Islands, et el before the Russians arrive... again, possibly).

Hokkaido was already under the governance of the Kakizaki family, Hokkaido could always be divided, or it could be a place to send troublemakers. However, at this time the Kakizaki only held Oshima peninsula.
 
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