WI: Obama/Nunn in 2008

Hmm interesting situation here.

McCain was very popular in the rural south; Obama just couldn't connect with the average joe and Biden was no help. Nunn woulda been a help; how much is hard to say. Georgia would be a definite toss up. Atlanta was solid for Barry but it wasn't enough still. With Nunn I see it being as much as a barn burner NC was. With Barr being from Georgia too it may be enough to split the vote enough to put Barry over; he's got to win more of the rural places or at least do % points better. I somewhat see McCain barely winning it though because rural Georgia is a odd place to crack. Tough scenario.

Missouri may go to the Dems though. It's margin was very short as it was; if a little less than 4,000 people change their mind it would been different. Somehow I see that one being more likely to flip.
 
Normally, I'd be skeptical that the VP slot makes much of a difference (Ryan in Wisconsin, Edwards in North Carolina, Bentsen in Texas), but in 2008, I'm actually kind of in agreement that the combination of Obama's campaign themes of bipartisanship and Nunn's popularity (north of 80% and unopposed in his reelects) might be enough for Obama to squeak out a win in Georgia.
 
I still think it's enough for Georgia to swing to Obama; along with Missouri and possibly Montana.
 
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So I believe this would be the result with an Obama/Nunn ticket. McCain won Georgia by 5.21% in OTL. So if Nunn can help overcome that deficit, then he should be able to help flip both Missouri and Montana (won by McCain by 0.13% and 2.26% respectively).

Beautiful map. Care to post how you think the Senate races would go?
 
Beautiful map. Care to post how you think the Senate races would go?

I think Jim Martin might eek it out over Saxby Chambliss in Georgia (though not sure if it would bee enough to avoid a runoff). It's possible (though unlikely) that Bruce Lunsford could beat Mitch McConnell in Kentucky.
 
I think Jim Martin might eek it out over Saxby Chambliss in Georgia (though not sure if it would bee enough to avoid a runoff). It's possible (though unlikely) that Bruce Lunsford could beat Mitch McConnell in Kentucky.

Well Lunsford almost beat McConnell in OTL so who knows.
 
Obama needed a VP with Foreign Policy expertise, and Nunn would fit the bill. It doesn't hurt that he was one of Bloomberg's three considerations for VP in 2008 (along with Hagel and Boren).

How does having the very bipartisan-minded Nunn affect Obama legislatively? Might Obama push harder for bipartisanship on the Affordable Care Act with Nunn's guidance?



The Healthy Americans Act was put forward in 2007 by a bipartisan group and was reintroduced in January 2009 but didn't go anywhere. Maybe with Nunn's guidance Obama goes for that here rather than a Democrat-drafted bill.

The OTL GOP sponsors of the bill who were still around come 2009 were Bob Bennett, Lamar Alexander, Mike Crapo, Lindsey Graham, and a still-Republican-at-the-time Arlen Specter. The Independent Lieberman was also a sponsor. Assuming that the OTL 60 Obamacare votes plus Jim Martin (who beats Chambliss in Georgia here) plus those 4 Republicans plus Collins, Snowe, and McCain vote for the HAA, that's 68 votes. Maybe Sanders doesn't vote for this here due to it not being progressive enough, but having around 68 votes ain't too shabby. If McConnell goes down too in 2008, then you've got 69 votes.

Obama passing the HAA with a bit of GOP support would make opposition to him and the act more difficult for the GOP. If McConnell lost in 2008, then it'd be even harder. If McConnell loses, who is Senate GOP leader? Cornyn? Durbin? Thune?
 

kernals12

Banned
Politico had a great thing about how VP picks have little effect
Our conclusion: While presidential candidates typically enjoy a home-state advantage (approximately 3 points to 7 points), vice presidential candidates generally do not. In each of the three analyses described above, a presidential ticket performs no better in the vice presidential candidate’s home state than we would expect otherwise. Statistically speaking, the effect is zero.
There was however one exception

There is one important exception to all of this: In the small handful of cases where a vice presidential home-state advantage did occur, consistently we find that the state in question has a relatively small population, and the candidate in question has a great deal of experience representing the voters of that state. In other words, the candidate who actually delivers a vice presidential home-state advantage truly must be an institution in state politics—an object of intense affection, loyalty and intimate familiarity. Most running mates (indeed, most politicians) do not meet this remarkably high standard. Those who meet the standard—for instance, Joe Biden in 2008 and Edmund Muskie in 1968—do, indeed, improve their ticket’s performance at home. But, of course, the prize is small: By definition, the states that can be “delivered” this way have relatively few electoral votes.

So Obama picking Nunn would have no impact on the election results besides reducing his margin in Delaware, a solidly blue state already.

The article noted that only time a VP pick may have made a difference in the election was in 2000 when Al Gore was considering New Hampshire governor Jeanne Shaheen before ultimately picking Joe Lieberman. If Gore had won NH, he would've won the election, no matter what happened in Florida.
 
I think in this case, McCain wins Indiana. Keep in mind that Biden was a big boost in 2008 and 2012 to Obama's efforts in the Midwest, particularly among blue collar voters, with whom he seemed to have a natural touch and who approved of him by wide margins. Nunn probably doesn't put Obama over the line in Indiana. He probably would though in Georgia and Missouri. Montana would be a tossup. I also think Nebraska's floating CD that went to Obama would in this case go with McCain, although that too could be tenuous.
 
I'm not really sure about Obama not losing Indiana or Nebraska's second Congressional District. Obama's taking Indiana had more to do with strong success in Chicagoland and the urban areas than anything IIRC. Nebraska's second district was due to Omaha and Hagel stumping for Obama in the district.
 

Edward IX

Banned
I still have my Nunn '88 button. I am going to throw this out here for a very effective recent VP candidate. Sarah Palin. Not that she brought one person to that ticket, but she did keep a lot of people who would have stayed at home to vote for McCain.
 
Obama would not have won Georgia in 2008. The state is highly inelastic, and 2008 is not 2000, let alone 1990, when Nunn won his last Senate term.

He might have won Missouri with Nunn, but that's really it.
 
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