WI: Obama loses his senate race?

Lets say that the scandals surronding Jack Ryan do not come out, and he is elected senator from Illinois instead of Barack Obama, what effects does that have on history from then to the present day?
 
Some of the bills he sponsored don't pass or are passed in a different form.

Hillary Clinton pretty much breezes through the primaries, but doesn't get as much independent support. (She'd still win, but not by as much as I think Obama will win by).

Obama remains a fairly prominent figure in Illinois, and tries again next time around.
 
Lets say that the scandals surronding Jack Ryan do not come out, and he is elected senator from Illinois instead of Barack Obama, what effects does that have on history from then to the present day?
The most likely outcome would be is Obama still wins but by a narrow margin over Jack Ryan. Keep in mind Obama became a national celebrity when he was the keynote speaker at the 2004 Democratic Convention, and the fact that he had David Axelrod as his campaign manager as well as the backing of Mayor Daley of Chicago; Obama can't lose.
 
Well, this is a 'what if' thread; so what if he did lose Standard? :)

The situation wouldn't exactly be ASB.
 
Senator Clinton would have had the nomination. She almost had it in OTL despite Obama running.

Senator Clinton essentially had everything wrapped up from the get go, and in fact, that's part of what led to her downfall, because she didn't bother to run a campaign until after Super Tuesday. Up until then she and everyone else assumed she was going to be the nominee, and it wasn't until Obama showed everyone up by demonstrating he could run an extremely good campaign that Senator Clinton buckled down and focused.

And really, that ended up being possibly the best vetting process Obama could have gone through. Everything that could have been dragged up, from Reverend Wright, to Bill Ayers, allegedly being a Muslim, his "inexperience" and so on and so forth, all were brought up during the knock-down dragged out fight, and all were demonstrated to be what they were.

Now McCain trying to use these tactics is finding they're not very effective, and not just because the economy is so central to everyone's concerns right now, but also because they were already shown to be what they are: untrue, worthless accusations.

I do believe, however, that had Obama either failed to win the nomination or did not run at all, Senator Clinton would have lost any potential race for the Presidency. She has simply far too many skeletons in her family closet, her own reputation--she is literally hated by a significant number of Republicans--and the fact that she wouldn't have adopted the fifty state strategy that Obama is using. Obama's strategy not only challenges his opponents in battleground states, but everywhere, and as a result, has demonstrably shown serious changes in demographics. We have the possibility of states like North Carolina--NORTH CAROLINA--going Democratic this year, because of his strategies.

Senator Clinton would have focused on the same old +1 strategy of focus on your base, and then grab undecideds and Independents, and we would see another Republican President. (And, for that matter, we wouldn't see an energized youth voting populace. Obama's strategy has also registered enormous numbers of new voters and gotten an entire new generation energized and interested in politics rather than apathetic. That's one of the many reasons I hope he wins, because I don't want that to disappear--or worse, suffer a backlash--as it surely would if McCain were to win.)
 
Well, this is a 'what if' thread; so what if he did lose Standard? :)

The situation wouldn't exactly be ASB.
I understand but the POD is that the details of Jack Ryan's divorce are never made public and he is the Republican nominee. I'm just pointing what the most likely outcome would be in that situatation.
 
Hilliary will more then likely get the nomination. Also she would have a better time of gaining votes among rural democrats and white women. Such was the case in WV primary. Not that WV has that many electoral votes but still.

The problem is Slick Willy in the background. Would she be able to run an effective campaign against whoever the Republican is? Maybe it is not Mccain this time, perhaps Romney?
 
Then Hillary wins. If she or Bill doesn't screw up, and from what I saw of their campaign, it's a real possibility.
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
Lincoln lost a senate race and was elected president two years after that!

OK, OK, different times, different voting procedures, but still, I wanted to mention it.
 
An alternative Illinois Senator

Even without the Ryan scandals, the Democratic candidate was heavily favored in the 2004 Illinois senate race. It's why Fitzgerald decided not to run for reelection.

A more interesting scenario has the Clintons decide in 2000 to move to Illinois (where Hillary grew up) instead of New York. If she wins the Senate seat in 2004, not only is Obama not positioned to run in 2008, but she avoids being on the record voting for the Iraq War Authorization, a major disadvantage for a lot of the Democratic primary/caucus electorate in the early states like Iowa.
 
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