WI Obama Landslide In 2012
- Thread starter Pericles
- Start date
I don't know that this would necessarily have been the result, but probably he is a lot bolder in his second term in office than IOTL.
you mean if gingrich were the GOP nominee?
santorum would never win the nomination, unless those space bats came to his aid
santorum would never win the nomination, unless those space bats came to his aid
Let's say the Democrats pick up Nevada and Arizona in the Senate (in addition to everything IOTL), giving a 57-43 majority.
The House is probably more out of reach without stronger recruitment efforts/different 2010/etc., but maybe the Democrats can manage to win a tiny majority. With an additional 7-point uniform swing (rather doubtful, but you specified the House in Democratic hands), Democrats would win the popular vote by something like 52.3-44.1 (about the same landslide as in 2008), but win only a tiny 220-215 majority in seats.
What gets done is probably very little despite the clear popular mandate, given the tiny House majority, and prospect of filibuster in the Senate. I'd definitely expect national redistricting reform to happen though, given how clear it would be that the system was messed up.
No shutdowns, no threat of shutdowns, no threat of a debt ceiling crisis. US economy is therefore somewhat better.
I also agree that after the GOP-controlled House of 2011-13, Congress would definitely put a priority on passing *something.* Scratching my head as to what. They'd want it to be a slam dunk, so I think that puts immigration off the table. What can the senate pass? That's the question to ask.
Some sort of emergency legislation to help the ACA rollout once it's determined that it's not going well?
Maybe companion legislation to Obama's recent environmental efforts?
Any ideas?
How does this affect GOP candidate recruitment for '14?
I also agree that after the GOP-controlled House of 2011-13, Congress would definitely put a priority on passing *something.* Scratching my head as to what. They'd want it to be a slam dunk, so I think that puts immigration off the table. What can the senate pass? That's the question to ask.
Some sort of emergency legislation to help the ACA rollout once it's determined that it's not going well?
Maybe companion legislation to Obama's recent environmental efforts?
Any ideas?
How does this affect GOP candidate recruitment for '14?
This is probably his ceiling in the electoral college, barring Herman Cain getting the nomination. With a seriously terrible candidate, maybe Montana and Indiana?
I'd agree with this, although I'll - very hesitantly, mind you - consider giving Texas to Obama depending on who the Republican candidate is. After all, their was at least one poll I'm aware of that showed him beating Newt Gingrich...
That's a pretty bold claim, considering that Romney was probably the GOP's most electable option and he lost pretty handily.
Dan Reilly The Great
Banned
Good question. If Gingrich is the nominee, he wasn't really anointed by the Tea Party, so one wonders just how the base reacts, possibly they get even angrier and louder. I also wonder how Romney would feel about trying again. Doubtless the primary race that he lost was probably even nastier than OTL.
I bet 2016 is even worse of a prospect for the GOP than it will be OTL.
Let's just say that the polls do not remotely support your (no doubt honest) belief: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep.../general_election_gingrich_vs_obama-1453.html
One other thing to remember is that it would be even harder for the Republican candidate to win in the Electoral College in 2012 than with the popular vote. Obama won the popular vote by 3.86 percent, but in order to defeat him in the Electoral College, the GOP would have had to win at least one state which Obama carried by 5.37 percent or more. Work it out for yourself at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012
He also has more skeletons in his closet than a serial killer, and just as gaffe prone (if not more so) than Romney.
If he was that great a debater and if debates are that all-important, he would have won the GOP nomination....
For a skeptical view of the importance of presidential debates, see http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/ma...residential_debates_really039413.php?page=all
Remember, it is universally agreed that Romney *did* do much better than Obama in the first debate--and he didn't do that terribly in the later debates, either.
I mean, I'm of the opinion that Obama could have showed up drunk to the first debate and still handily beaten Romney in the election, but that's just me.
At the same time, I want to say that while I do not for a minute believe that Gingrich would defeat Obama, and do not think he would even do as well as Romney, I don't think he would lose by as large a margin as the polls indicated. Once he got the nomination, most of the Republican base would rally behind him, now that the only alternative was Obama. In fact, both parties now have such strong bases (including nominal "independents" who always vote for the party) that it may be that "true" landslides of the 1932 or 1936 or 1972 or 1984 variety are just not possible any more. Any GOP candidate, even Gingrich, is probably guaranteed about 45 percent of the two-party vote. In fact, probably the only state which Romney won and a weaker GOP candidate might have lost is North Carolina.
Paul V McNutt
Banned
I have done a TL with Santorium as the Republican nominee. oObama wins 56 percent and adds Georgia, sSouth Carolina, North Carolina. Indiana, Missouri, the 2nd District of Nebraska and Arizona to his OTL states for 405 electoral votes. sSantorium gets 133 electoral votes. t tIn the Senate, Democrats win Arizona and Nevada so it is 57 to 43. The House is Republican 226 to 209. Nine or more Republicans can be found to sign a discharge petition and vote yes on the Immigration and Gay Rights Bill .