WI: Obama doesn't run in 2008

It's a toss up early in the general election campaign (so long as McCain picks a better running mate than OTL) and then once the financial crisis happens in September, Hillary surges ahead in the polls and wins the election, although does so by a closer margin. Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia stay Republican (Virginia narrowly), but she probably flips Missouri and possibly Arkansas. West Virginia might be closer than OTL but will still go McCain.
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
Don't underestimate the force of "never Hillary" and the fact that the republican party needs fewer votes to win due to the electoral college.

Without mistakes like choosing Palin, McCain could win against Clinton.
 
Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia stay Republican (Virginia narrowly), but she probably flips Missouri and possibly Arkansas. West Virginia might be closer than OTL but will still go McCain.

Tim Kaine would probably still be her VP pick (he was considered for '08), so I think Virginia would still go blue.
 
Don't underestimate the force of "never Hillary" and the fact that the republican party needs fewer votes to win due to the electoral college.

Without mistakes like choosing Palin, McCain could win against Clinton.

Republican bias in the Electoral College is WAY overrated. A friend of mine in 2012 said "Thank God for California and their electoral votes". His analysis is shared amongst many people in both 2012 and 2008.

McCain has a huge uphill battle going by the start of the financial crisis as well as the fact that he's George W. Bush's choice. George W. Bush was not a very popular figure in 2008. And that's not just in California that people didn't like him.
 

CECBC

Banned
Clinton would beat McCain easily and I suspect she'd win a second term against Romney, assuming that's who they run. I do think her presidency wouldn't go as smoothly as Obama's however. Scandal seems to follow the Clinton family and could be her undoing in ITTL.

I do also think Hillary ITTL could be someone who'd strike a good middle ground between conservatives and liberals. She'd be liberal of course, but someone Republicans could feel okay with so their wouldn't be the very strong negative feelings like with Obama.

Weird thinking that McCain was once the presidential candidate given how despised he is in right-wing circles. Seriously, not to get political but he is hated more than Hillary among a sizable group of conservatives.
 
I feel Hillary could lose in 2012, if the Republicans field a good candidate. It was an even race, perhaps even one favoring the Republicans, until Romney's failures and Obama's presence.
 
Don't underestimate the force of "never Hillary" and the fact that the republican party needs fewer votes to win due to the electoral college.

Without mistakes like choosing Palin, McCain could win against Clinton.

In 2004, 2008 and 2012 the Democrats had an Electoral College advantage and McCain would have needed to win the PV by 2% to win the Electoral College.
 
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